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In this paper, a distributed catchment-hydrology model and a physically based lake hydrodynamic model were used to simulate the large-scale and highly dynamic lake catchment system of Poyang Lake, in the middle reach of the Yangtze River basin, China. The simulation of the hydrodynamics of the lake is a significant extension to previous efforts to simulate Poyang Lake's considerable variability in lake extent and flow rates. Further, the combination of the distributed catchment-hydrology model and the lake-hydrodynamic model, applied to a highly dynamic and large-scale system, is a rare attempt to develop a physically based management model of this complexity and scale. Model calibration and validation were undertaken to evaluate the model's performance and to enhance its effectiveness in simulating catchment discharges, lake water levels, lake water surface areas, and lake flow patterns. The results showed a satisfactory agreement with field observations, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.71-0.84 for catchment discharges, 0.88-0.98 for lake water levels, and 0.80 for lake outflows during the calibration period. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values for the validation period, ranging from 0.62 to 0.97, were largely consistent with the calibration values. Further investigation of the results showed that the modeling approach simulated adequately the lake hydrodynamics in terms of the flow fields within the lake and the seasonal changes in the lake water surface area. The outcomes of this paper will benefit future modeling efforts by providing a tool for predicting the hydrology of Poyang Lake and its catchment under climate variability and land-use changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The C-band radar instruments onboard the two-satellite GMES Sentinel-1 constellation provide global measurements with short revisit time (about six days) and medium spatial resolution (5 × 20 m), which are appropriate for watershed scale hydrological applications. This paper aims to explore the potential of Sentinel-1 for estimating surface soil moisture using a multi-temporal approach. To this end, a linear mixed effects (LME) model was developed over Poyang Lake ungauged zone, using time series Sentinel 1A and 1B images and soil moisture ground measurements from 15 automatic observation sites. The model assumed a linear relationship that varied with both time and space between soil moisture and backscattering coefficient (SM-s0). Results showed that three LME models developed with different polarized s0 images all meet the European Space Agency (ESA) accuracy requirement for GMES soil moisture product (≤5% in volume), with the vertical transmit and vertical receive (VV) polarized model achieving the best performance. However, the SM-s0 relationship was found to depend strongly on space, making it difficult to predict absolute soil moisture for each grid. Therefore, a relative soil moisture index was then proposed to correct for site effect. When compared with those of the linear fixed effects model, the soil moisture indices predicted by the LME model captured the temporal dynamics of measured soil moisture better, with the overall R2 and cross-validated R2 being 0.68 and 0.64, respectively. These results indicate that the LME model can be effectively applied to estimate soil moisture from multi-temporal Sentinel-1 images, which is useful for monitoring flood and drought disasters, and for improving stream flow prediction over ungauged zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flood dynamics of large lake floodplain systems are typically complex. This paper analyses the characteristics and factors that influence the hysteresis of water area-stage curves for Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China characterized by complex geomorphology and upstream-downstream exchange conditions. For this purpose, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model (EFDC) based on seven scenarios is established. The results indicate that the area-stage curve presents significant hysteretic characteristics due to different water surface gradients that emerge during the water-rising and water-falling periods. Counter-clockwise, clockwise, and splayed hysteresis directions observed at the northern, southern, and central hydrometric stations, respectively, are found in Poyang Lake for the first time. Upstream catchment inflows and Hukou stage reflecting the downstream condition are the main factors that influence hysteresis. The temporal fluctuation of catchment inflows and Hukou stage has a remarkably positive impact on hysteresis, namely, an increase in fluctuation brings about a larger hysteresis. The effects of magnitude change in the two factors on hysteresis are opposing. Catchment inflows are positively related, while the decline of the Hukou stage will produce a more pronounced hysteresis. The outcomes of this study will benefit the water management of Poyang Lake and other similar large lakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the water-rock interactions and anthropogenic effects in the Poyang Lake catchment (China) were distinguished using the chemical composition of the shallow groundwater. The analysis focuses on those changes which result from water-rock interactions. It is found that the shallow groundwater in the Poyang Lake catchment is HCO-Ca-Na or HCO-Na-Ca with an average TDS value of 183 mg/L. The pH value increases with groundwater salinity and changes from acidic to neutral and rarely to slightly alkaline. The content of δO and δD suggests that the shallow groundwater is of meteoric origin. A detailed analysis reveals that the groundwater can be confined to two different landscapes: (1) to red earth soils (natural landscapes) and (2) to paddy soils (landscapes influenced by intensive agricultural activities). The main distinction between two types of the groundwater is that the groundwater confined to red earth soils is in equilibrium with kaolinite and hydroxides, while the groundwater confined to agricultural landscapes is in equilibrium with montmorillonites and less often with illite and kaolinite. The differences between mineral equilibrium character of two main groundwater types result from changing in water exchange rate due to long-term agricultural activity with regular flooding and slope terracing. It is found that in some areas the shallow groundwater is rich in NO , Cl, SO , K, NH , NO , PO , F due to overuse of fertilizers, sewage water leakage and other pollutants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dry-wet abrupt transition (DWAT) is a typical anomaly of precipitation at the subseasonal scale and may result in a severer and greater hydro-meteorological hazard. This paper identified and examined the DWAT events in terms of precipitation in Poyang Lake basin, including both from dry to wet (DTW) and from wet to dry (WTD), during the period of 1960-2010 and analyzed its characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution and intra- and inter-annual tendencies based on the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test. The results revealed that the DTW was inclined to occur in March, but WTD in July and September; the inter-annual variation of the DWAT index showed a feeble long-term increasing trend in July and a decreasing trend in September with a Z-statistic of 1.81 and -1.44, respectively, although none of these trends achieved the statistical significance level (a = 0.05); the north parts of Poyang Lake basin experienced more DWAT events during the last 50 years in which the occurrence of WTD is more frequent than that of DTW. The outcomes of the study will help mitigate and regulate the flood and drought in Poyang Lake basin, as well as in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrological processes depend directly on climate conditions [e.g., precipitation, potential evapotranspiration ( PE)] based on the water balance. This paper examines streamflow datasets at four hydrological stations and meteorological observations at 79 weather stations to reveal the streamflow changes and underlying drivers in four typical watersheds (Meigang, Saitang, Gaosha, and Xiashan) within Poyang Lake Basin from 1961 to 2000. Most of the less than 90th percentile of daily streamflow in each watershed increases significantly at different rates. As an important indicator of the seasonal changes in the streamflow, CT (the timing of the mass center of the streamflow) in each watershed shows a negligible change. The annual streamflow in each watershed increases at different rates, with a statistically significant trend (at the 5 % level) of 9.87 and 7.72 mm year, respectively, in Meigang and Gaosha watersheds. Given the existence of interactions between precipitation and PE, the original climate elasticity of streamflow can not reflect the relationship of streamflow with precipitation and PE effectively. We modify this method and find the modified climate elasticity to be more accurate and reasonable using the correlation analysis. The analyses from the modified climate elasticity in the four watersheds show that a 10 % increase (decrease) in precipitation will increase (decrease) the annual streamflow by 14.1-16.3 %, while a 10 % increase (decrease) in PE will decrease (increase) the annual streamflow by −10.2 to −2.1 %. In addition, the modified climate elasticity is applied to estimate the contribution of annual precipitation and PE to the increasing annual streamflow in each watershed over the past 40 years. Our result suggests that the percentage attribution of the increasing precipitation is more than 59 % and the decreasing in PE is less than 41 %, indicating that the increasing precipitation is the major driving factor for the annual streamflow increase for each watershed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we evaluate the impacts of land-use/cover changes (LUCC) on sediment loads at the outlets office sub-watersheds of the Poyang Lake watershed by integrating remote sensing and GIS with statistical analysis. The intensively formed watershed is characterized by a mountainous and hilly topography and a rainy climate. The primary goal of this paper is to help a better understanding of land-use/cover change and its driving forces. We discuss spatio-temporal variations in rainfall and sediment loads and identify factors contributing to those variations, analyze the comprehensive impacts of land-use/cover change on changing climate and human activities, and conclude that the changing rates of forest cover and climate regimes are primary factors for sediment discharges in the Poyang Lake watershed. Our results suggest that the eco-system still have large capacities to support human activities in the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary In recent years, the Poyang Lake basin is in a prolonged drought which has placed immense pressure on the water resources utilization. In this paper, we explore the spatial and temporal distributions of extreme droughts in the Poyang Lake basin by using the methods of SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) for the period of 1956–2009, which are influenced by regional precipitation anomalies and river–lake interaction due to water impounding of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD). The results show that: (1) the Poyang Lake basin experienced six extreme droughts during the past 60 years, which lead to decreases in streamflow from five tributary rivers down to the Poyang Lake. The droughts in the 1960s and the 2000s were the most serious ones. However, there was an increasing trend of streamflow in the upper and middle Yangtze in the 1960s, and a decreasing trend appeared in the 2000s. The decline of streamflow in the upper Yangtze reaches has lowered the water level of lower Yangtze River which has caused more outflow from the Poyang Lake to the Yangtze River; (2) the operation of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) has altered the seasonal pattern of flow regimes in the Poyang Lake and significantly reduced the water level in the lower Yangtze River during the TGD impounding period from late September to early November; and (3) the conjunction of extreme droughts in the Poyang Lake and the upper Yangtze reaches coincided with the impounding of the TGD is the main cause of the low water level in the Poyang Lake. Although the impact of the recent droughts in the Poyang Lake and upper Yangtze reaches has played a crucial role in the low water level of Poyang Lake, more attention should be paid to its sensitivity to the influence of the large dam-induced changes in the interaction between river and lake, particularly during impounding periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is known that evapotranspiration (ET) differs before and after vegetation change in watersheds. However, impacts of vegetation change on ET remain incompletely understood. In this paper, we investigated the process-specific, nonclimatic contribution (mainly vegetation coverage changes) to ET at grid, sub-basin, and basin scales using observation and remote sensing data. The Poyang Lake Basin was selected as the study area, which experienced a fast vegetation restoration from 1983 to 2014. Our results showed that vegetation cover change produced contrasting effects on annual ET in magnitude and direction during shifts from a less covered to a more covered stage. At the early stage (1983–1990), with vegetation cover of 30%, vegetation cover change produced negative effects on ET over the basin. At the middle stage (1990–2000), the vegetation coverage increased at a fast pace and the negative effects gradually shifted to positive. At the late stage (2000–2014), the vegetation coverage remained high (over 60%) and maintained a positive relationship with ET. In summary, the vegetation effects are collaboratively influenced by both vegetation coverage and its change rate. Our findings should be helpful for a comprehensive understanding of complicated hydrological responses to anthropogenic revegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Lakes, as key recorders of sedimentation regime variations, have undergone dramatic erosion/deposition worldwide in response to global warming and increasing anthropogenic interference. Poyang Lake, China's largest freshwater lake, has not escaped these variations. Herein, we show that the sedimentation in Poyang Lake has likely undergone a unique phase shift from sediment sink (annually storing 421 × 104 t) during 1960–1999 to sediment source (yearly losing 782 × 104 t) during 2000–2012, with respect to the Changjiang (Yangtze) River. In comparison with sedimentation during 1960–1999, Poyang Lake sedimentation during the period 2000–2012 is characterized by no deposition during the flood season and enhanced erosion during the dry season. Furthermore, Poyang Lake's largest delta, the Ganjiang Delta, prograded at a rate of 32.7 m/a from 1983 to 1996, which increased to 52.8 m/a from 1996 to 2005 but dropped significantly to 1.7 m/a from 2005 to 2015. A sediment core collected in the shallow‐water shoal of the central lake indicates a stable increase in sedimentation flux from 1960 to 2002, with a mean value of 0.27 g/(cm2·a), followed by a decline in sedimentation flux after 2002. Our findings show that the tributary sediment input from the lake catchment dominated the sedimentation of Poyang Lake prior to 2000, when it was significantly larger than the sediment output to the Changjiang River. However, thereafter, the contribution of tributary sediment to the output dropped by 50%, and the rest has been provided by the lake itself. Namely, channels along Poyang Lake's waterway became the additional source of the lake's sediment output in the 2000s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study addresses the excessive consumption of river basin water from the Poyang Lake area in China. Consumption of water for irrigation, together with the discharge of agricultural non-point source pollution, is seriously affecting the water quality of Poyang Lake. This study assesses the application of integrated ecological restoration technology for agricultural non-point source pollution in the Ganfu Plain Area, which is an important agricultural production base in the Poyang Lake basin. The results indicated that the water-fertilizer comprehensive regulation mode for double-cropping rice provided water savings of 10.4% and increased rice yield by 6.5% per hectare. Furthermore, it reduced drainage water pollution by 20.4%, and emissions of ammonium nitrogen (NH4+-N), nitrate nitrogen (NO3--N), total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen (TN) from rice paddy surfaces by 18.6%, 11.1%, 15.4%, and 16.0%, respectively. The eco-channel-pond wetland system effectively reduced TN and TP pollutant levels in rice paddy drainage water; the eco-channel reduced TN and TP by 9.3% and 14.0%, respectively; and the pond wetland system showed reductions of 8.6% and 22.9%, respectively. The "three lines of defense" purification technology, including rice field source control, eco-channel interception, and pond wetland purification, removed 29.9% of TN and 44.3% of TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The refill operation of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in the end of flood season significantly alters the water level regimes in Poyang Lake by reducing Yangtze River flow discharge. This study aims to investigate the impact of TGR refill operation on water level probability distribution of the Poyang Lake. The multiple linear regression model was established to estimate the water level with catchment inflow and Yangtze River flow as explanatory variables. A probability distribution of water level was derived and the refill operation effects were quantified by comparing the water level distribution at Xingzi station in the Poyang Lake before and after TGR. It is revealed that Yangtze River flow, rather than the catchment inflow is the dominant factor affecting the water level of Poyang Lake during TGR refill operation period. Results also show that the water level distribution estimated by the derived distribution method can be accepted as a theoretical distribution and has a comparable accuracy as the directly fitted distribution method before TGR. The derived method can be adapted to the environment change, thus is well suited for estimating the water level distribution after TGR. It is observed that Xingzi water levels with different design frequencies have been reduced due to the TGR refill operation. The water level reductions induced by TGR refill operation are 1.28, 0.87, and 0.50 m corresponding with design frequencies of 50, 90 and 99 %, respectively. The results from this work would improve the understanding of the TGR effects on the downstream river-lake system and provide scientific evidences for formulating better scheme for water resources management in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydrological variations of Ganjiang River Basin have significant influence on the ecological environment of Poyang Lake, which is one of the largest freshwater lake and wetland in the world. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall across Ganjiang River Basin. The analyses include annual total rainfall amount (ATRA), annual total rainy day (ATRD) and annual mean daily rainfall intensity (AMDRI). To detect changes in the hydrological trends, data from 19 rainfall stations from 1953 to 2013 were used in the analyses. First, quality control and homogeneity detection was carried out to examine the annual rainfall series. Second, the spatial correlation analysis was used to identify the spatial relationship among the measurements from different stations. Finally, the statistics of coefficient of variation (CV) and average were used to analyze the interannual variation trend. The modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) trend test method was used to detect the temporal characteristics of rainfall. The results include: (1) Some outliers were detected and corrected. (2) The correlation of ATRA and ATRD series of all the stations had lower spatial variability while the AMDRI series of all the stations had higher spatial variability. On the other hand, the ATRA, ATRD and AMDRI series of single stations show similar spatial variability and the influencing radius of the rainfall events was less than 50 km. (3) the rainfall at the northern and southern parts of the basin had smaller CV. Further, by applying the MMK test method to the ATRA, ATRD, and AMDRI series, the ATRA series has an increasing trend which is opposite to that of the ATRD series. The increasing trend in the ATRA series also led to the increasing trend in the AMDRI series. These stations are mainly in central and northern parts of the basin which are more likely to experience droughts and floods. Thus, for the central and northern parts of the basin, they should receive particular attention on the prevention and treatment of droughts and floods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By using linear regression (parametric), Mann-Kendall (nonparametric) and attribution analysis methods, this study systematically analysed the changing properties of reference evapotranspiration (ETr) calculated using the Penman-Monteith method over the Poyang Lake catchment during 1960-2008 and investigated the contribution of major climatic variables to ETr changes and their temporal evolution. Generally, a significant decreasing trend of annual ETr is found in the catchment. The decrease of annual ETr in the Poyang Lake basin is mostly affected by the decline of summer ETr. Over the study period, climatic variables, i.e. sunshine duration (SD), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS) and vapour pressure all showed decreasing trends, whereas mean daily temperature (DT) increased significantly. Multivariate regression analysis indicated that SD is the most sensitive climatic variable to the variability of ETr on annual basis, followed by RH, WS and DT, whereas the effect of vapour pressure is obscure. Although recent warming trend and decrease of relative humidity over the catchment could have increased ETr, the combined effect of shortened SD and reduced WS negated the effect and caused significant decrease of ETr. Our investigation reveals that the relative contributions of climatic variables to ETr are temporally unstable and vary considerably with large fluctuation. In consideration of the changes of climatic variables over time, further analysis indicated that changes of mean annual ETr in 1970-2008 were primarily affected by SD followed by WS, RH and DT with reference to 1960s. However, WS became the predominant factor during the period 2000-2008 compared with reference period 1960s, and followed by SD. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To understand the causes of the past water cycle variations and the influence of climate variability on the streamflow, lake storage, and flood potential, we analyze the changes in streamflow and the underlying drivers in four typical watersheds (Gaosha, Meigang, Saitang, and Xiashan) within the Poyang Lake Basin, based on the meteorological observations at 79 weather stations, and datasets of stream- flow and river level at four hydrological stations for the period of 1961-2000. The contribution of different climate factors to the change in streamflow in each watershed is estimated quantitatively using the water balance equations. Results show that in each watershed, the annual streamflow exhibits an increasing trend from 1961--2000. The increases in streamflow by 4.80m³ s-1 yr-1 and 1.29m³ s-1 yr-1 at Meigang and Gaosha, respectively, are statistically significant at the 5% level. The increase in precipitation is the biggest contributor to the streamflow increment in Meigang (3.79m³ s-1 yr-1), Gaosha (1.12m-1 s-1 yr-1), and Xiashan (1.34m-1 s-1 yr-1), while the decrease in evapotranspiration is the major factor controlling the streamflow increment in Saitang (0.19m-1 s-1 yr-1). In addition, radiation and wind contribute more than actual vapor pressure and mean temperature to the changes in evapotranspiration and streamflow for the four watersheds. For revealing the possible change of streamflow due to the future climate change, we also investigate the projected precipitation and evapotranspiration from of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) under three greenhouse gases emission scenarios (SRESA1B, SRESA2 and SRESB1) for the period of 2061-2100. When the future changes in the soil water storage changes are assumed ignorable, the streamflow shows an uptrend with the projected increases in both precipitation and evapotranspiration (except for the SRESB1 scenario in Xiashan watershed) relative to the observed mean during 1961-2000. Furthermore, the largest increase in the streamflow is found at Meigang (+4.31 %) and Xiashan (+3.84 %) under the SRESA1B scenario, while the increases will occur at Saitang (+6.87 %) and Gaosha (+5.15%) under the SRESB1 scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Under the background of global warming, does the effect of the rising global surface temperature accelerate the hydrological cycle? To address this issue, we use the hydro-climatic data from five sub-basins in Poyang Lake basin in the southeast China over the past 50 years, to investigate the annual and seasonal trends of streamflow and the correlations between streamflow and climatic variables. The Theil-Sen Approach and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test are applied to identify the trends in the annual and seasonal streamflow, precipitation and evapotranspiration series. It was found that annual and seasonal streamflow of all the stations had increasing trends except Lijiadu station in wet season. Only 37.5% hydro-stations in annual streamflow increased significantly, while most stations increased at 95% significance level in dry season. Trends in annual and seasonal precipitation during the whole period were generally not as significant as those in evapotranspiration. The correlations between streamflow and climate variables (precipitation and evapotranspiration) were detected by the Pearson's test. The results showed that streamflow in the Poyang Lake basin are more sensitive to changes in precipitation than potential evapotranspiration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]