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Copyright of Conservation Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of People & Nature is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Stakeholder cooperation can be vital in managing conservation conflicts. Laboratory experiments show cooperation is less likely in the presence of uncertainty. Much less is known about how stakeholders in real‐life conservation conflicts respond to different types of uncertainty.We tested the effects of different sources of uncertainty on cooperative behaviour using a framed field experiment and interviews. The experiment compared a baseline scenario of perfect certainty with scenarios including either: (a) scientific uncertainty about the effectiveness of a conflict‐reduction intervention; (b) administrative uncertainty about intervention funding; or (c) political uncertainty about the extent of community support. We applied these scenarios to a conservation conflict in the Outer Hebrides, Scotland, involving the management of geese to simultaneously meet both conservation and farming objectives. We asked 149 crofters (small‐scale farmers) if they would commit to cooperate with others by helping fund a goose management plan given the three sources of uncertainty.On average, intention to cooperate was highest (99%) in scenarios without uncertainty, and lowest under administrative uncertainty (77%). Scientific uncertainty and political uncertainty both had less of an effect, with over 95% of crofters predicted to be willing to cooperate in these scenarios. Crofters who indicated concern for other crofters suffering the impact of geese were more likely to cooperate. The longer an individual had been a crofter, the less likely they were to cooperate.Synthesis and applications. Crofters' intention to cooperate is high but lessened by uncertainty, especially over the commitment from other stakeholders such as government, to cooperate on goose management. Existing cooperation on goose management may be at risk if uncertainty is not reduced outright or commitments between parties are not strengthened. This has wide applicability, supporting the need for researchers and government advisers to: (a) determine how uncertainty will impact intention of stakeholders to cooperate; and (b) take steps (such as uncertainty reduction, communication or acceptance) to reduce the negative impact of uncertainty on cooperation. Crofters' intention to cooperate is high but lessened by uncertainty, especially over the commitment from other stakeholders such as government, to cooperate on goose management. Existing cooperation on goose management may be at risk if uncertainty is not reduced outright or commitments between parties are not strengthened. This has wide applicability, supporting the need for researchers and government advisers to: (a) determine how uncertainty will impact intention of stakeholders to cooperate; and (b) take steps (such as uncertainty reduction, communication or acceptance) to reduce the negative impact of uncertainty on cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extinction risk varies across species and space owing to the combined and interactive effects of ecology/life history and geography. For predictive conservation science to be effective, large datasets and integrative models that quantify the relative importance of potential factors and separate rapidly changing from relatively static threat drivers are urgently required. Here, we integrate and map in space the relative and joint effects of key correlates of The International Union for Conservation of Nature-assessed extinction risk for 8700 living birds. Extinction risk varies significantly with species' broad-scale environmental niche, geographical range size, and life-history and ecological traits such as body size, developmental mode, primary diet and foraging height. Even at this broad scale, simple quantifications of past human encroachment across species' ranges emerge as key in predicting extinction risk, supporting the use of land-cover change projections for estimating future threat in an integrative setting. A final joint model explains much of the interspecific variation in extinction risk and provides a remarkably strong prediction of its observed global geography. Our approach unravels the species-level structure underlying geographical gradients in extinction risk and offers a means of disentangling static from changing components of current and future threat. This reconciliation of intrinsic and extrinsic, and of past and future extinction risk factors may offer a critical step towards a more continuous, forward-looking assessment of species' threat status based on geographically explicit environmental change projections, potentially advancing global predictive conservation science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term (>50 years) extinction patterns and processes in isolated tropical forest patches are poorly understood. Considering that forest fragments are rapidly becoming the common feature of most tropical landscapes, data on the long-term conservation value of such fragments are urgently needed. We report on avifaunal turnover in a tropical woodlot (Bogor Botanical Gardens; 86 ha; 54% native and 46% introduced plants; mean 83,649 visitors/month) that has been surveyed several times before and after its isolation in 1936. By 2004 the original avifaunal richness of this woodlot declined by 59% (97 to 40 species) and its forest-dependent avifauna declined by 60% (30 to 12 species). Large-bodied birds were particularly prone to extinction before 1987, but following this time none of the species traits we studied could be considered predictive of extinction proneness. All seven forest-dependent bird species that attempted to colonize this woodlot by 1987 perished thereafter. Our results show that area reduction, isolation, intense human use, and perverse management (e.g., understory removal) of this patch have probably negatively affected the long-term sustainability of its forest avifauna. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation biologists now view species interaction networks as systems that should be targets of conservation, but there are few actual cases in which networks have formed the basis for management strategies. Terrestrial mixed-species bird flocks (hereafter, TMSF) represent one such potential system: they form throughout the world, and in most cases have an asymmetric organization in which one or a few species play ‘nuclear’ roles, being particularly important for flock formation or maintenance. A quantitative study on the distribution of TMSF and how they respond to anthropogenic disturbance (AD) is still, however, needed. We surveyed 201 publications on terrestrial TMSF worldwide, finding that 19% of the world's bird species participate in them, including 158 threatened species, with tropical species dominating these lists. Of 31 TMSF studies that investigated AD, 22 showed significant declines in some metric, with TMSF in more impacted areas including 1/4 fewer species, and 1/3 fewer individuals. In 13/15 studies, TMSF were more sensitive to AD than the overall bird community. We conceptualize the reasons behind this response: first, AD directly influences drivers of flocking (predation, foraging), and second, AD produces changes in community composition that affect TMSF, such as when the extirpation or reduction of nuclear species affects other species' participation. We rank nuclear species globally by their consistency of leadership and number of followers, suggesting that these species' interactive roles be considered as part of their conservation value, and further that conserving TMSF provides an efficient mechanism to ensure the protection of many species simultaneously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]