Search

Multiple energy‐related crises require a fast transition towards a sustainable energy system. The European Green Deal aims for zero CO2 emission by 2050, while accelerating climate change impacts obligate a faster phase‐out of fossil fuels. Energy transition studies for Europe at and near 100% renewable energy are used as a benchmark for two newly introduced scenarios for Europe reaching zero CO2 emissions by 2050 and 2040. A technology‐rich energy system model was applied in hourly resolution for Europe in 20 interconnected regions and in full sector coupling covering all energy demands. The results reveal a cost‐neutral energy transition towards 2050 based on declining levelised cost of electricity and a pathway with 9% higher energy costs leading to 17% lower total CO2 emissions with an accelerated energy transition by 2040. The two scenarios find shares of solar photovoltaic (PV) in total generation of 61%–63% by 2050, the highest ever estimated for Europe, still below the highest global average shares ranging between 75% and 77% form three independent studies. The central energy system components are solar PV, wind power, batteries, electrolysers and CO2 direct air capture for carbon capture and utilisation. The core characteristic of the European energy future may be best described by a power‐to‐X economy, which may evolve on the global scale to a solar‐to‐X economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The British Isles, consisting of the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland, were investigated for a sustainable energy system transition towards 100% renewable energy in 2050. Under given framework conditions, three pathways comprising the entire energy system were investigated in 5‐year time steps and hourly resolution applying an advanced energy system modelling tool and identifying the lowest cost solutions. The British Isles were structured into 10 sub‐national regions. Special attention was paid to the high offshore wind potential of the British Isles, as well as the limited societal acceptance for onshore wind in the United Kingdom. The results indicate that a transition to 100% renewable energy is economically more attractive than the governmental strategy that involves nuclear power and fossil carbon capture and storage. The total annualised system costs can decrease to 63 b€ and a levelised cost of electricity of 40 €/MWh if onshore wind and solar photovoltaics are allowed to be built to a higher extend. High levels of electrification and sector coupling are the main reasons for decreasing primary energy demand. The multiple risks of nuclear technology can be avoided if dedicated action towards 100% renewable energy is taken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent events like heatwaves and abnormal rainfall are a glimpse of the devastating effects of human induced climate change. No country is immune to its effects, but a developing country like India is particularly vulnerable. This research, for the individual states of India, explores the technical feasibility and economic viability of a renewable transition pathway for the power sector. Based on the assumptions of this study, we show that a renewables-based power system by 2050 is lower in cost than the current coal dominated system, has zero greenhouse gas emissions and provides reliable electricity to around 1.7 billion people. Electricity generation will be based on solar PV, wind energy, and hydropower, while batteries and multi-fuel reciprocating internal combustion engines based on synthetic fuels provide the required flexibility to the power system. This transition would address multiple imperatives: affordability, accessibility, and sustainability without compromising economic growth. A new study assesses the feasibility of a fully renewable based power system by 2050 across India, finding this option to be cost competitive with the status quo and with zero GHG emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is driving the adoption of sustainable energy, with low-cost solar photovoltaics and wind power at the forefront. However, land-constrained regions and islands have a limited onshore renewable energy potential. Wave power may prove useful for such regions, supported by growing literature in the field. This study delves into wave power's techno-economic potential, addressing a gap in previous assessments focused solely on theoretical or technical prospects. Utilising hourly wave data and a wave energy converter manufacturer's power matrix, global wave electricity yield is estimated. Considering projected costs, levelised cost of electricity is used to gauge economic viability. Although wave power is currently expensive, the results suggest that it could become cost-competitive with offshore wind power in the 2030s, with levelised cost of electricity below 70 €/MWh by 2035 in areas with good wave energy resources. Finally, the paper contributes openly accessible, hourly capacity factor data of global wave power generation, empowering further energy system modelling research. This study paves the way for informed decision-making on wave power's role in a diversified, sustainable energy future. • Global-local wave power potential is estimated. • Economic potential estimation is presented with projection until 2050. • Point absorbers have a wide operating range leading to high yields and low costs. • Wave power is a feasible alternative for power supply in coastal regions and islands. • Energy systems can benefit from the complementarity of wave power and solar PV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement, as the two biggest climate action initiatives, address the need to shift towards a fully sustainable energy system. The deployment of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, decreases carbon dioxide emissions, but presents issues of resource intermittency. In this study, a cost-optimised 100% renewable energy based system is analysed and quantified for the Americas for the reference year 2030 using high spatially and temporally resolved weather data. Several scenarios have been applied, from a decentralised power system towards a fully centralised and interconnected system, taking into account a mix of renewable energy, energy storage and transmission networks. This research aims to evaluate the benefits of an interconnected energy system for the Americas. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) is between 48.8 and 59.0 €/MWh depending on the chosen scenario. The results show that the LCOE and total annualised cost drop by 14% and 15%, respectively, in a centralised power system. The optimised utilisation of transmission grids leads to less energy storage requirement. Sector coupling brings further benefits by reducing additional 4% of LCOE, where electricity demand for power, seawater desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors have been supplied. A comparison between the interconnected Americas and North and South America individually shows a reduction of 1.6% and 4.0% for the total annual system cost and LCOE. Although the cost of the energy system decreased due to wide grid interconnection, substantial benefits have not been achieved as reported earlier for a Pan-American energy system. A scenario with synthetic natural gas (SNG) trading through a liquefied natural gas value chain has also been presented. The results suggest that local SNG production cost in the assumed consumption centre is almost the same as the cost of imported SNG. Highlights • A 100% renewable energy based system is analysed for the Americas for the year 2030. • Interconnected Americas show slightly more benefit than North and South America. • Long distance transmission lines cannot compete with energy storage technologies. • Renewable energy variability can be resolved at a cost-effective manner. • 100% renewable energy systems are lower in cost than a business-as-usual scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper determines a least cost electricity solution for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The power system discussed in this study is hourly resolved and based on 100% Renewable Energy (RE) technologies. Sub-Saharan Africa was subdivided into 16 sub-regions. Four different scenarios were considered involving the setup of a high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid. An integrated scenario that considers water desalination and industrial gas production was also analyzed. This study reveals that RE is sufficient to cover 866.4 TWh estimated electricity demand for 2030 and additional electricity needed to fulfill 319 million m 3 of water desalination and 268 TWh LHV of synthetic natural gas demand. Existing hydro dams can be used as virtual batteries for solar PV and wind electricity storage, diminishing the role of other storage technologies. The results for total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) decreases from 57.8 €/MWh for a highly decentralized to 54.7 €/MWh for a more centralized grid scenario. For the integrated scenario, including water desalination and synthetic natural gas demand, the levelised cost of gas and the levelised cost of water are 113.7 €/MWh LHV and 1.39 €/m 3 , respectively. A reduction of 6% in total cost and 19% in electricity generation was realized as a result of integrating desalination and power-to-gas sectors into the system. A review of studies on the energy future of Sub-Saharan Africa provides the basis for a detailed discussion of the new results presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As energy system research into high shares of renewables has developed, so have the perspectives of the fundamental nature of a highly renewable economy. Early energy system transition research suggested that current fossil fuel energy systems would transition to a 'Hydrogen Economy', whereas more recent insights suggest that a 'Power-to-X Economy' may be a more appropriate term, as renewable electricity will become both the most important primary and final energy carrier through various Power-to-X conversion routes across the energy system. This paper provides a detailed overview on research insights of recent years on the core elements of the Power-to-X Economy and the role of hydrogen based on latest research results. These results suggest that, by 2050, upwards of 61,737 TWh LHV of hydrogen will be required to fully defossilise the global energy-industry system. Hydrogen, therefore, emerges as a central intermediate energy carrier and its relevance is driven by significant cost reductions in renewable electricity, especially of solar photovoltaics and wind power. Efficiency and cost drivers position direct electrification as the primary solution for defossilisation of the global energy-industry system; however, electron-to-molecule routes are essential for the large subset of remaining energy-related demands including chemical production, marine and aviation fuels, and steelmaking. [Display omitted] • The term 'Hydrogen Economy' insufficiently describes future energy systems. • 'Power-to-X Economy' better highlights the essential role of renewable electricity. • The highest reported demand for e-hydrogen is presented at over 60 PWh H2,LHV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study power generation and demand arematched through a least-costmix of renewable energy (RE) resources and storage technologies for North America by 2030. The study is performed using an hourly resolved model based on a linear optimization algorithm. The geographical, technical and economic potentials of different forms of RE resources enable the option of building a super grid between different North American regions. North America (including the U.S., Canada and Mexico in this paper), is divided into 20 sub-regions based on their population, demand, area and electricity grid structure. Four scenarios have been evaluated: region-wide, country-wide, area-wide and an integrated scenario. The levelised cost of electricity is found to be quite attractive in such a system, with the range from 63/MWhel in a decentralized case and 42/MWhel in a more centralized and integrated scenario. Electrical grid interconnections significantly reduce the storage requirement and overall cost of the energy system. Among all RE resources, wind and solar PV are found to be the least-cost options and hence the main contributors to fossil fuel substitution. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option at a modest cost. However, such a tremendous transition will not be possible in a short time if policy-makers, energy investors and other relevant organizations do not support the proposed system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The developing region of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) is home to a large number of people living below the poverty line. In future, providing affordable, universally accessible, reliable, low to zero carbon electricity in this region will be the main aim. A cost optimal 100% renewable energy system is simulated for SAARC for the year 2030 on an hourly resolved basis. The region was divided into 16 sub-regions and three different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage direct current (HVDC) grid connections. The results obtained for a total system levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) showed a decrease from 71.6 €/MWh in a decentralized to 67.2 €/MWh for a centralized grid connected scenario. An additional scenario was simulated to show the benefits of integrating industrial gas production and seawater reverse osmosis desalination demand, and showed the system cost decreased by 5% and total electricity generation decreased by 1%. The results show that a 100% renewable energy system could be a reality in the SAARC region with the cost assumptions used in this research and it may be more cost competitive than nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives. One of the limitations of this study is the cost of land for installation of renewables which is not included in the LCOE calculations, but regarded as a minor contribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Power systems for South and Central America based on 100% renewable energy (RE) in the year 2030 were calculated for the first time using an hourly resolved energy model. The region was subdivided into 15 sub-regions. Four different scenarios were considered: three according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels (region, country, area-wide) and one integrated scenario that considers water desalination and industrial gas demand supplied by synthetic natural gas via power-to-gas (PtG). RE is not only able to cover 1813 TWh of estimated electricity demand of the area in 2030 but also able to generate the electricity needed to fulfil 3.9 billion m3 of water desalination and 640 TWhLHV of synthetic natural gas demand. Existing hydro dams can be used as virtual batteries for solar and wind electricity storage, diminishing the role of storage technologies. The results for total levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are decreased from 62 €/MWh for a highly decentralized to 56 €/MWh for a highly centralized grid scenario (currency value of the year 2015). For the integrated scenario, the levelized cost of gas (LCOG) and the levelized cost of water (LCOW) are 95 €/MWhLHV and 0.91 €/m3, respectively. A reduction of 8% in total cost and 5% in electricity generation was achieved when integrating desalination and power-to-gas into the system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study demonstrates how seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) plants, necessary to meet increasing future global water demand, can be powered solely through renewable energy. Hybrid PV–wind–battery and power-to-gas (PtG) power plants allow for optimal utilisation of the installed desalination capacity, resulting in water production costs competitive with that of existing fossil fuel powered SWRO plants. In this paper, we provide a global estimate of the water production cost for the 2030 desalination demand with renewable electricity generation costs for 2030 for an optimised local system configuration based on an hourly temporal and 0.45° × 0.45° spatial resolution. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to about 2374 million m 3 /day. The levelised cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.59 €/m 3 –2.81 €/m 3 , depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The global system required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to cost 9790 billion € of initial investments. It is possible to overcome the water supply limitations in a sustainable and financially competitive way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the transition to renewable energy for all purposes in developing countries. Ethiopia is chosen as a case study and is an exemplary of developing countries with comparable climatic and socioeconomic conditions. The techno-economic analysis of the transition is performed with the LUT Energy System Transition model, while the socio-economic aspects are examined in terms of greenhouse gas emissions reduction, improved energy services and job creation. Six scenarios were developed, which examine various policy constraints, such as greenhouse gas emission cost. The Best Policy Scenarios cost less than the Current Policy Scenarios and generate more job. The results of this research show that it is least costing, least greenhouse gas emitting and most job-rich to gradually transition Ethiopia's energy system into one that is dominated by solar PV, complemented by wind energy and hydropower. The modelling outcome reveals that it is not only technically and economically possible to defossilise the Ethiopian energy system, but it is the least cost option with greatest societal welfare. This is a first of its kind study for the Ethiopian energy system from a long-term perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ammonia is a key chemical for the agriculture and chemical industries, and a potential future marine fuel. Potential growth in ammonia demand further highlights the importance of ammonia production defossilisation to comply with climate goals. Widely available renewable resources and declining costs of solar photovoltaics and wind power enable the production of green e-ammonia at many locations and potential exports to countries with less optimal resources and other restrictions. This paper aims to compare the cost of imported e-ammonia to Germany, Finland, and Spain from regions with excellent renewable resources, Morocco and Chile, to the cost of local production, and to quantify potential economic savings due to trading. Transportation costs are calculated in this study with techno-economic parameters reported in detail to assess their impact on final import costs, and to allow comparison of shipping costs to pipeline transmission costs over various distances. Pipeline imports from Morocco were found to be significantly higher in cost compared to imports by sea from Chile and Morocco or local production. Imports from Chile were found to be economically feasible for Germany and Finland, with import costs 10–33% lower than domestic e-ammonia production in 2030–2050. Imports to Spain may be attractive in 2030s, but, after 2040, local solar resources enable local e-ammonia production costs at the same or lower cost as imported e-ammonia. Ammonia trading in the future may depend on access to the sea. Other factors such as creation of jobs, additional revenues, and energy security concerns may also impact e-ammonia trade. • Imports of green e-ammonia are feasible for Germany and Finland, but not for Spain. • Imported e-ammonia is 10–33% lower in cost in Germany and Finland in 2030 • In 2050, imports are 12–33% lower in cost in Germany and Finland than local supply. • Shipping e-ammonia is more economical for medium and long distances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Imported green e-H 2 is more expensive than e-H 2 produced in Germany and Finland. • Local supply of e-H 2 found to be more economical across all scenarios and years. • Transportation costs constitute 29–63% of the total imported e-H 2 cost. • Pipeline transmission may be cheaper than shipping for distances of 2000–2500 km. Widely available and low-cost solar photovoltaics and wind power can enable production of renewable electricity-based hydrogen at many locations throughout the world. Hydrogen is expected to emerge as an important energy carrier constituting some of the final energy demand; however, its most important role will be as feedstock for further processing to e-fuels, e-chemicals, and e-steel. Apart from meeting their own hydrogen demand, countries may have opportunities to export hydrogen to countries with area limitations or higher production costs. This paper assesses the feasibility of e-hydrogen imports to Germany and Finland from two case regions with a high availability of low-cost renewable electricity, Chile and Morocco, in comparison to domestic supply. Special attention is paid to the transport infrastructure, which has a crucial impact on the economic viability of imports via two routes, shipping and pipelines. This study has found that despite lower e-hydrogen production costs in Morocco and Chile compared to Germany and Finland, additional transportation costs make imports of e-hydrogen economically unattractive. In early 2020s, imported fuel costs are 39–79% and 34–100% higher than e-hydrogen produced in Germany and Finland, respectively. In 2050, imported e-hydrogen is projected to be 39–70% more expensive than locally produced e-hydrogen in Germany and 43–54% in the case of Finland. e-Hydrogen may become a fuel that is mostly produced domestically and may be feasible for imports only in specific locations. Local e-hydrogen production may also lower dependence on imports, enhance energy security, and add jobs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Defossilisation of the current fossil fuels dominated global energy system is one of the key goals in the upcoming decades to mitigate climate change. Sharp reduction in the costs of solar photovoltaics, wind power, and battery technologies enables a rapid transition of the power and some segments of the transport sectors to sustainable energy resources. However, renewable electricity-based fuels and chemicals are required for the defossilisation of hard-to-abate segments of transport and industry. The global demand for carbon dioxide as raw material for the production of e-fuels and e-chemicals during a global energy transition to 100% renewable energy is analysed in this research. Carbon dioxide capture and utilisation potentials from key industrial point sources, including cement mills, pulp and paper mills, and waste incinerators, are evaluated. According to this study's estimates, the demand for carbon dioxide increases from 0.6 in 2030 to 6.1 gigatonnes in 2050. Key industrial point sources can potentially supply 2.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide and thus meet the majority of the demand in the 2030s. By 2050, however, direct air capture is expected to supply the majority of the demand, contributing 3.8 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide annually. Sustainable and unavoidable industrial point sources and direct air capture are vital technologies which may help the world to achieve ambitious climate goals. • By 2050, 43,251 TWh th of renewable electricity based fuels and chemicals are needed. • Global demand for carbon dioxide will reach 6076 MtCO 2 annually in 2050. • Key industrial point sources cover 96% of the carbon dioxide demand in 2030. • Direct Air Capture covers 63% of the carbon dioxide demand in 2050. • Cement mills and waste incinerators are major suppliers of carbon dioxide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Driven by climate mitigation goals countries around the world are prioritising low-cost renewables for economic growth and recovery from the aftermath of the global pandemic. It is quite clear that sustainable technology choices result in broader socioeconomic benefits, as is shown by countries that have been early movers in transitioning their energy sectors towards higher shares of renewables. There is growing interest in better understanding the direct impact on employment by energy transitions with concerns over jobs lost in the conventional energy sectors, which will be crucial in informing decision making around the world. This research focuses on the net employment impacts of an accelerated uptake of renewable energy that envisages the world deriving 100 % of its energy from renewable sources by 2050, compatible with the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement. Direct energy jobs associated with the power, heat, transport, and desalination sectors increase substantially from about 57 million in 2020 to nearly 134 million by 2050. Value chains in renewables and sustainable technologies are found to be more labour intensive than extractive fossil fuels. The results indicate that a global energy transition will have positive impacts on future stability and growth of economies around the world. • Global jobs in the energy sector rise from 57 million in 2020 to 134 million in 2050. • Solar PV, batteries and wind power are the major job creating technologies. • First global study presenting job creation projections for power-to-X technologies. • Renewable energy accounts for nearly 75 % of total direct energy jobs by 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]