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Generating spatial crop yield information is of great significance for academic research and guiding agricultural policy. Existing public yield datasets have a coarse spatial resolution, spanning from 1 to 43 km. Although these datasets are useful for analyzing large-scale temporal and spatial change in yield, they cannot deal with small-scale spatial heterogeneity, which happens to be the most significant characteristic of the Chinese farmers' economy. Hence, we generated a 30 m Chinese winter wheat yield dataset (ChinaWheatYield30m) for major winter-wheat-producing provinces in China for the period 2016–2021 with a semi-mechanistic model (hierarchical linear model, HLM). The yield prediction model was built by considering the wheat growth status and climatic factors. It can estimate wheat yield with excellent accuracy and low cost using a combination of satellite observations and regional meteorological information (i.e., Landsat 8, Sentinel 2 and ERA5 data from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform). The results were validated using in situ measurements and census statistics and indicated a stable performance of the HLM based on calibration datasets across China, with a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.81 and a relative root mean square error (rRMSE) of 12.59 %. With regards to validation, the ChinaWheatYield30m dataset was highly consistent with in situ measurement data and statistical data (p<0.01), indicated by an r (rRMSE) of 0.72** (15.34 %) and 0.69** (19.16 %). The ChinaWheatYield30m is a sophisticated dataset with both high spatial resolution and excellent accuracy; such a dataset will provide basic knowledge of detailed wheat yield distribution, which can be applied for many purposes including crop production modeling and regional climate evaluation. The ChinaWheatYield30m dataset generated from this study can be downloaded from 10.5281/zenodo.7360753 (Zhao et al., 2022b). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop residue is an important component of farmland ecosystems, which is of great significance for increasing soil organic carbon, mitigating wind erosion and water erosion and conserving soil and water. Crop residue coverage (CRC) is an important parameter to characterize the number and distribution of crop residues, and also a key indicator of conservation tillage. In this study, the CRC of wheat was taken as the research object. Based on the high-resolution GF-1 satellite remote sensing imagery from China, decision tree (DT), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), random forest (RF), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), extreme gradient boosting regression (XGBR) and other machine learning algorithms were used to carry out the estimation of wheat CRC by remote sensing. In addition, the comparisons with sentinel-2 imagery data were also utilized to assess the potential of GF satellite data for CRC estimates. The results show the following: (1) Among the spectral indexes using shortwave infrared characteristic bands from sentinel-2 imagery, the dead fuel index (DFI) was the best for estimating wheat CRC, with an R2 of 0.54 and an RMSE of 10.26%. The ratio vegetation index (RVI) extracted from visible and near-infrared characteristic bands from GF-1 data performed the best, with an R2 of 0.46 and an RMSE of 11.39%. The spectral index extracted from GF-1 and sentinel-2 images had a significant response relationship with wheat residue coverage. (2) When only the characteristic bands from the visible and near-infrared spectral ranges were applied, the effects of the spatial resolution differences of different images on wheat CRC had to be taken into account. The estimations of wheat CRC with the high-resolution GF-1 data were significantly better than those with the Sentinel-2 data, and among multiple machine learning algorithms adopted to estimate wheat CRC, LASSO had the most stable capability, with an R2 of 0.46 and an RMSE of 11.4%. This indicates that GF-1 high-resolution satellite imagery without shortwave infrared bands has a good potential in applications of monitoring crop residue coverage for wheat, and the relevant technology and method can also provide a useful reference for CRC estimates of other crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate determination of phenological information of crops is essential for field management and decision-making. Remote sensing time-series data are widely used for extracting phenological phases. Existing methods mainly extract phenological phases directly from individual remote sensing time-series, which are easily affected by clouds, noise, and mixed pixels. This paper proposes a novel method of phenological phase extraction based on the time-weighted dynamic time warping (TWDTW) algorithm using MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 5-day time-series data with a spatial resolution of 500 m. Firstly, based on the phenological differences between winter wheat and other land cover types, winter wheat distribution is extracted using the TWDTW classification method, and the results show that the overall classification accuracy and Kappa coefficient reach 94.74% and 0.90, respectively. Then, we extract the pure winter-wheat pixels using a method based on the coefficient of variation, and use these pixels to generate the average phenological curve. Next, the difference between each winter-wheat phenological curve and the average winter-wheat phenological curve is quantitatively calculated using the TWDTW algorithm. Finally, the key phenological phases of winter wheat in the study area, namely, the green-up date (GUD), heading date (HD), and maturity date (MD), are determined. The results show that the phenological phase extraction using the TWDTW algorithm has high accuracy. By verification using phenological station data from the Meteorological Data Sharing Service System of China, the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the GUD, HD, and MD are found to be 9.76, 5.72, and 6.98 days, respectively. Additionally, the method proposed in this article is shown to have a better extraction performance compared with several other methods. Furthermore, it is shown that, in Hebei Province, the GUD, HD, and MD are mainly affected by latitude and accumulated temperature. As the latitude increases from south to north, the GUD, HD, and MD are delayed, and for each 1° increment in latitude, the GUD, HD, and MD are delayed by 4.84, 5.79, and 6.61 days, respectively. The higher the accumulated temperature, the earlier the phenological phases occur. However, latitude and accumulated temperature have little effect on the length of the phenological phases. Additionally, the lengths of time between GUD and HD, HD and MD, and GUD and MD are stable at 46, 41, and 87 days, respectively. Overall, the proposed TWDTW method can accurately determine the key phenological phases of winter wheat at a regional scale using remote sensing time-series data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Timely and accurate forecasting of crop grain protein content (GPC) is helpful in planning to acquire the desired target protein levels. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was estimated based on meteorological factors to predict the winter wheat GPC at the county level. In the Huang-Huai-Hai region, the grain protein content of winter wheat increased by 0.29% for every 1° increase in latitude. GPC prediction with this model was more precise than that of the multiple linear regressions (MLR) model. The correlation coefficient (R) and Akaike information criterion (AIC) value ranges were 0.26 ~ 0.66 and 1573.86 ~ 1710.70 for the GWR, and 0.06 ~ 0.46 and 1670.18 ~ 1939.76 for the MLR, respectively. Except for radiation in March (RAD03), radiation in April (RAD04) and radiation in May (RAD05), the sensitivity index of other monthly weather indicators to GPC had a high correlation with latitude. With 36° north latitude (L) as the limit, the correlation between RAD03 (R L<36 ° = 0.36, R L>36 ° = −0.29), RAD04 (R L<36 ° = 0.31, R L>36 ° = −0.35) and RAD05 (R L<36 ° = 0.20, R L>36 ° = −0.20) with latitude all showed an opposite trend. We highlight that spatial information needs to be considered when predicting county-level winter wheat GPC. • The grain protein content (GPC) is positively correlated with latitude. • The effect of meteorological factors on winter GPC showed spatial heterogeneity. • Geographically weighted model has advantages in winter GPC in heterogeneous region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Develop a within-growing season yield forecast system with random forest model. • Random forest model performs well in predicting grain yield in China. • We identified the most important stage-specific predictors determining crop yield. • The most important variable influencing yields varied with crop types. Accurate and timely crop yield forecasts can provide essential information to make conclusive agricultural policies and to conduct investments. Recent studies have used different machine learning techniques to develop such yield forecast systems for single crops at regional scales. However, no study has used multiple sources of environmental predictors (climate, soil, and vegetation) to forecast yields for three major crops in China. In this study, we adopted 7-year observed crop yield data (2013–2019) for three major grain crops (wheat, maize, and rice) across China, and three major data sets including climate, vegetation indices, and soil properties were used to develop a dynamic yield forecasting system based on the random forest (RF) model. The RF model showed good performance for estimating yields of all three crops with correlation coefficient (r) higher than 0.75 and normalized root means square errors (nRMSE) lower than 18.0%. Our results also showed that crop yields can be satisfactorily forecasted at one to three months prior to harvest. The optimum lead time for yield forecasting depended on crop types. In addition, we found the major predictors influencing crop yield varied between crops. In general, solar radiation and vegetation indices (especially during jointing to milk development stages) were identified as the main predictor for winter wheat; vegetation indices (throughout the growing season) and drought (especially during emergence to tasseling stages) were the most important predictors for spring maize; soil moisture (throughout the growing season) was the dominant predictor for summer maize, late rice, and mid rice; precipitation (especially during booting to heading stages) was the main predictor for early rice. Our study provides insights into practical crop yield forecasting and the understanding of yield response to environmental conditions at a large scale across China. The methods undertaken in this research can be easily implemented in other countries with available information on climate, soil, and vegetation conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]