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Accurate determination of crop phenology is key to field management and decision making. The existing research on phenology based on remote sensing data is mainly phenology monitoring, which cannot realize the prediction of phenology. In this paper, we propose a method to predict the maturity date (MD) of winter wheat based on a combination of phenology monitoring method and accumulated temperature. The method is divided into three steps. First, 2-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) time series data were generated using the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) reflectance data at 8-day intervals; then, the time series were reconstructed using polynomial fitting and the heading date (HD) of winter wheat was extracted using the maximum method. Secondly, the average cumulative temperature required for winter wheat to go from HD to MD was calculated based on historical phenological data and meteorological data. Finally, the timing of winter wheat HD and the current year's Meteorological Data were combined to predict winter wheat MD. The method was used to predict the MD of winter wheat in Hebei in 2018 and was validated with data from the phenology station and the Modis Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2) product. The results showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) for predicting MD using this method was 0.48 and 0.74, the root mean square error (RMSE) was 7.03 and 4.91 days, and Bias was 4.93 and −3.59 days, respectively. In summary, the method is capable of predicting winter wheat MD at the regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is an important agricultural parameter that is closely correlated with crop growth. In this study, a novel method combining the dynamic time warping (DTW) model and the long short-term memory (LSTM) deep recurrent neural network model was developed to predict the short and medium-term winter wheat NDVI. LSTM is well-suited for modelling long-term dependencies, but this method may be susceptible to overfitting. In contrast, DTW possesses good predictive ability and is less susceptible to overfitting. Therefore, by utilizing the combination of these two models, the prediction error caused by overfitting is reduced, thus improving the final prediction accuracy. The combined method proposed here utilizes the historical MODIS time series data with an 8-day time resolution from 2015 to 2020. First, fast Fourier transform (FFT) is used to decompose the time series into two parts. The first part reflects the inter-annual and seasonal variation characteristics of winter wheat NDVI, and the DTW model is applied for prediction. The second part reflects the short-term change characteristics of winter wheat NDVI, and the LSTM model is applied for prediction. Next, the results from both models are combined to produce a final prediction. A case study in Hebei Province that predicts the NDVI of winter wheat at five prediction horizons in the future indicates that the DTW–LSTM model proposed here outperforms the LSTM model according to multiple evaluation indicators. The results of this study suggest that the DTW–LSTM model is highly promising for short and medium-term NDVI prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate determination of phenological information of crops is essential for field management and decision-making. Remote sensing time-series data are widely used for extracting phenological phases. Existing methods mainly extract phenological phases directly from individual remote sensing time-series, which are easily affected by clouds, noise, and mixed pixels. This paper proposes a novel method of phenological phase extraction based on the time-weighted dynamic time warping (TWDTW) algorithm using MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 5-day time-series data with a spatial resolution of 500 m. Firstly, based on the phenological differences between winter wheat and other land cover types, winter wheat distribution is extracted using the TWDTW classification method, and the results show that the overall classification accuracy and Kappa coefficient reach 94.74% and 0.90, respectively. Then, we extract the pure winter-wheat pixels using a method based on the coefficient of variation, and use these pixels to generate the average phenological curve. Next, the difference between each winter-wheat phenological curve and the average winter-wheat phenological curve is quantitatively calculated using the TWDTW algorithm. Finally, the key phenological phases of winter wheat in the study area, namely, the green-up date (GUD), heading date (HD), and maturity date (MD), are determined. The results show that the phenological phase extraction using the TWDTW algorithm has high accuracy. By verification using phenological station data from the Meteorological Data Sharing Service System of China, the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the GUD, HD, and MD are found to be 9.76, 5.72, and 6.98 days, respectively. Additionally, the method proposed in this article is shown to have a better extraction performance compared with several other methods. Furthermore, it is shown that, in Hebei Province, the GUD, HD, and MD are mainly affected by latitude and accumulated temperature. As the latitude increases from south to north, the GUD, HD, and MD are delayed, and for each 1° increment in latitude, the GUD, HD, and MD are delayed by 4.84, 5.79, and 6.61 days, respectively. The higher the accumulated temperature, the earlier the phenological phases occur. However, latitude and accumulated temperature have little effect on the length of the phenological phases. Additionally, the lengths of time between GUD and HD, HD and MD, and GUD and MD are stable at 46, 41, and 87 days, respectively. Overall, the proposed TWDTW method can accurately determine the key phenological phases of winter wheat at a regional scale using remote sensing time-series data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grain protein content (GPC) is an important indicator of wheat quality. Earlier estimation of wheat GPC based on remote sensing provided effective decision to adapt optimized strategies for grain harvest, which is of great significance for agricultural production. The objectives of this field study are: (i) To assess the ability of spectral vegetation indices (VIs) of Sentinel 2 data to detect the wheat nitrogen (N) attributes related to the grain quality of winter wheat production, and (ii) to examine the accuracy of wheat N status and GPC estimation models based on different VIs and wheat nitrogen parameters across Analytical Spectra Devices (ASD) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) hyper-spectral data-simulated sentinel data and the real Sentinel-2 data. In this study, four nitrogen parameters at the wheat anthesis stage, including plant nitrogen accumulation (PNA), plant nitrogen content (PNC), leaf nitrogen accumulation (LNA), and leaf nitrogen content (LNC), were evaluated for their relationship between spectral parameters and GPC. Then, a multivariate linear regression method was used to establish the wheat nitrogen and GPC estimation model through simulated Sentinel-2A VIs. The coefficients of determination ( R 2 ) of four nitrogen parameter models were all greater than 0.7. The minimum R 2 of the prediction model of wheat GPC constructed by four nitrogen parameters combined with VIs was 0.428 and the highest R 2 was 0.467. The normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) of the four nitrogen estimation models ranged from 26.333% to 29.530% when verified by the ground-measured data collected from the Beijing suburbs, and the corresponding nRMSE for the GPC-predicted models ranged from 17.457% to 52.518%. The accuracy of the estimated model was verified by UAV hyper-spectral data which had resized to different spatial resolution collected from the National Experimental Station for Precision Agriculture. The normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) of the four nitrogen estimation models ranged from 16.9% to 37.8%, and the corresponding nRMSE for the GPC-predicted models ranged from 12.3% to 13.2%. The relevant models were also verified by Sentinel-2A data collected in 2018 while the minimum nRMSE for GPC invert model based on PNA was 7.89% and the maximum nRMSE of the GPC model based on LNC was 12.46% in Renqiu district, Hebei province. The nRMSE for the wheat nitrogen estimation model ranged from 23.200% to 42.790% for LNC and PNC. These data demonstrate that freely available Sentinel-2 imagery can be used as an important data source for wheat nutrition and grain quality monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]