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In this study, an empirical assessment approach for the risk of crop loss due to water stress was developed and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, the United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. We combined statistical and remote sensing data on crop yields with climate data and cropland distribution to model the effect of water stress from 1982 to 2011. The average value of winter wheat loss due to water stress for the three European countries was about −931 kg/ha, which was higher than that in China (−570 kg/ha) and the United States (−367 kg/ha). Our study has important implications for the operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or regional scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapotranspiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistical crop yield data and establishing more sophisticated zoning methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North China Plain (NCP) was selected as the study area and the effects of water and heat were analysed to determine the dominant factor affecting winter wheat growth. The mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation and soil moisture data were selected to analyse the correlations between the leaf area index (the growth indicator) and these factors using long time series half-monthly data (2–5 months) (from 1982 to 2010). The results showed that temperature was the main factor affecting the growth of winter wheat in the NCP. The growth of winter wheat had weak correlations with precipitation and soil moisture and the influence of water on winter wheat growth was smaller than the influence of heat. In the northern part of the NCP, mainly including the north-west region of Shandong Province and the southern region of Hebei Province, irrigation was necessary in late February and early March. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Winter wheat biomass was estimated using HJ CCD and MODIS data, combined with a radiation use efficiency model. Results were validated with ground measurement data. Winter wheat biomass estimated with HJ CCD data correlated well with observed biomass in different experiments (coefficients of determinationR2of 0.507, 0.556 and 0.499;n = 48). In addition,R2values between MODIS estimated and observed biomass are 0.420, 0.502 and 0.633. Even if we downscaled biomass estimated using HJ CCD data to MODIS pixel size (9 × 9 HJ CCD pixels to approximate that MODIS pixel),R2values between estimated and observed biomass were still higher than those from MODIS. We conclude that estimation with remote sensing data, such as the HJ CCD data with high spatial resolution and shorter revisit cycle, can show more detail in spatial pattern and improve the application of remote sensing on a local scale. There is also potential for applying the approach to many other studies, including agricultural production estimation, crop growth monitoring and agricultural ecosystem carbon cycle studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• NNVAI is proposed to indicate winter wheat damage caused by a single frost event. • Growth-stage-specific relations between NNVAI and frost features were explored. • Winter wheat is sensitive to different features of frost at different growth stages. • Developed monitoring framework to do two-phase assessment of winter wheat damage. Frost events pose a threat to normal development of winter wheat and increase risk of production loss, even given the context of global warming. On the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP), which is the largest region of winter wheat cultivation in China, frost damage has become one of the major meteorological catastrophes. In recent years, both frequency of occurrence and severity of frost events in this region have exhibited an upward trend. For timely and accurate monitoring of single-event frost damage of winter wheat, this study developed a frost-monitoring framework that considers the processes of the evolution of a frost event and the response of winter wheat, as well as the lag between them. The framework adopts a NDVI valley area index (NVAI) to represent the gradual response process of winter wheat to frost. In this framework, the normalized NVAI (NNVAI) is used to indicate the degree of damage, and a two-phased damage assessment (i.e., T1 and T2) is adopted to resolve the contradiction between the urgency of obtaining information on frost severity, the spatial distribution of frost damage, and the delayed response process of winter wheat to frost. Using prediction models based on historical statistics, assessment at the T1 stage estimates the possible damage after the end of the frost, and assessment at the T2 stage evaluates the actual damage caused by frost when the winter wheat has recovered. Application of the proposed framework to a frost event that occurred on the HHHP during March 4–9, 2018 revealed that the average absolute percentage error between actual and predicted damage across the entire region was 33 %. Moreover, the prediction of damage was made 13 days ahead of the occurrence of actual damage. Thus, the framework could provide guidance to enable action to be taken to reduce the impact of frost. The proposed monitoring framework fully considers the processes of the evolution of a frost event and the response of winter wheat to frost, and it learns potential patterns from historical frost events to provide early prediction of potential frost damage. Consequently, the framework is considered suitable for wide practical application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because canola is a major oilseed crop, accurately determining its planting areas is crucial for ensuring food security and achieving UN 2030 sustainable development goals. However, when canola is extracted using remote-sensing data, winter wheat causes serious interference because it has a similar growth cycle and spectral reflectance characteristics. This interference seriously limits the classification accuracy of canola, especially in mixed planting areas. Here, a novel canola flower index (CFI) is proposed based on the red, green, blue, and near-infrared bands of Sentinel-2 images to improve the accuracy of canola mapping, based on the finding that spectral reflectance of canola on the red and green bands is higher than that of winter wheat during the canola flowering period. To investigate the potential of the CFI for extracting canola, the IsoData, support vector machine (SVM), and random forest (RF) classification methods were used to extract canola based on Sentinel-2 raw images and CFI images. The results show that the average overall accuracy and kappa coefficient based on CFI images were 94.77% and 0.89, respectively, which were 1.05% and 0.02, respectively, higher than those of the Sentinel-2 raw images. Then we found that a threshold of 0.14 on the CFI image could accurately distinguish canola from non-canola vegetation, which provides a solution for automatic mapping of canola. The overall classification accuracy and kappa coefficient of this threshold method were 96.02% and 0.92, which were very similar to those of the SVM and RF methods. Moreover, the advantage of the threshold classification method is that it reduces the dependence on training samples and has good robustness and high classification efficiency. Overall, this study shows that CFI and Sentinel-2 images provide a solution for automatic and accurate canola extraction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]