1. How warming and other stressors affect zooplankton abundance, biomass and community composition in shallow eutrophic lakes
- Author
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Helen Agasild, Fabien Cremona, Alo Laas, Priit Zingel, Peeter Nõges, Tiina Nõges, Juta Haberman, and Chair of Hydrobiology and Fishery. Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Science
- Subjects
zooplankton ,Atmospheric Science ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,warming ,0208 environmental biotechnology ,Climate change ,02 engineering and technology ,01 natural sciences ,Zooplankton ,chemistry.chemical_compound ,Nitrate ,empirical modelling ,Abundance (ecology) ,Ecosystem ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Trophic level ,Global and Planetary Change ,Biomass (ecology) ,Ecology ,interactions ,020801 environmental engineering ,multiple stressors ,chemistry ,shallow lake ,articles ,Environmental science ,Eutrophication - Abstract
We aimed to investigate the influence of environmental factors and predict zooplankton biomass and abundance in shallow eutrophic lakes. We employed time series of zoo- plankton and environmental parameters that were measured monthly during 38 years in a large, shallow eutrophic lake in Estonia to build estimates of zooplankton community metrics (cladocerans, copepods, rotifers, ciliates). The analysis of historical time series revealed that air temperature was by far the most important variable for explaining zooplankton biomass and abundance, followed, in decreasing order of importance, by pH, phytoplankton biomass and nitrate concentration. Models constructed with the best predicting variables explained up to 71% of zooplankton biomass variance. Most of the predictive variables had opposing or antagonistic interactions, often mitigating the effect of temperature. In the second part of the study, three future climate scenarios were developed following different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) tem- perature projections and entered into an empirical model. Simulation results showed that only a scenario in which air temperature stabilizes would curb total metazooplankton biomass and abundance. In other scenarios, metazooplankton biomass and abundance would likely exceed historical ranges whereas ciliates would not expand. Within the metazooplankton community, copepods would increase in biomass and abundance, whereas cladocerans would lose in biomass but not in abundance. These changes in the zooplankton community will have important consequences for lake trophic structure and ecosystem functioning. This research was supported by the Estonian Research Council Grants PSG32, PRG709 and institutional research funding IUT 21-2 of the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research. This research was supported by the Estonian Research Council Grants PSG32, PRG709 and institutional research funding IUT 21-2 of the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research.
- Published
- 2020