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Climate change will cause substantial vegetation shifts across the world. Africa may face varying dynamics such as tree decline, savannization, and woody encroachment due to rising temperatures and rainfall changes. This study examines the potential effects of climate change on Kenyan vegetation and vegetation shifts for 2050 and 2100, employing a statistical model to predict vegetation state as driven by environmental variables, including temperature, soil moisture, livestock density, and topography. We evaluate the model by hindcasting it from 2020 to 2000 and then project future vegetation states for 2050 and 2100 under SSP 2–4.5 and SSP 5–8.5. In response to moderate emissions, a notable increase in arid-associated shrubland vegetation (53–58%) is forecasted, leading to the expansion of drylands at the expense of savannas, grasslands, and forests. Under high-emission scenarios, savannas are forecasted to expand (52–65%) at the expense of forested areas. Overall, dense forest cover declines across scenarios, affecting protected areas by promoting increased savanna cover and reducing forest area (40% to 50%). These projected shifts in major vegetation types would likely alter ecosystem functioning and associated services, impacting pastoralists and wildlife and raising biodiversity concerns. Protected areas in Kenya could lose 50% of their forests, highlighting the urgency of climate change mitigation. These findings offer a crucial foundation for future research and action on Kenya's vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

African wildlife populations are declining at an alarming rate. To stop further population declines and restore ecosystems, more areas for wildlife are needed. Community‐based conservation with wildlife‐livestock coexistence in the vast rangelands of Africa presents a major opportunity. However, the efficacy of wildlife conservation in mixed land‐use areas remains an outstanding question. To assess the ecological outcomes of land‐sharing between regulated livestock herds and wildlife populations in African savannas, we test how rotational cattle grazing affects spatiotemporal dynamics of 15 large herbivore species in the Maasai Mara, Kenya.First, we tested how wild herbivore distributions across the Greater Mara Ecosystem (the Mara, ~2600 km2) are related to cattle density and environmental variables using 584,561 observations of wild herbivores (ecosystem scale). In a second analysis, we tested how rotational cattle grazing affects wild herbivore distributions in a 300 km2 subsection of the Mara using 30,583 observations (landscape scale). Finally, we tested how functional traits of wild herbivores affect species‐level spatiotemporal responses to cattle grazing.At the ecosystem scale, the presence of five wild herbivore species was positively correlated with cattle density, while cattle effects on wild herbivore abundances were species‐dependent with both increases and decreases. At the landscape scale, rotational cattle grazing strongly impacted the spatiotemporal habitat selection of wild herbivores, resulting in distinct lag periods with which different species are attracted to areas previously grazed by cattle. These lag periods were linked to functional traits, with body mass and herd size explaining 35% of the interspecific differences. Small to medium‐sized herbivores with large herds select areas recently grazed by cattle, whereas large species with large herd sizes and small species with small herd sizes avoid recently grazed areas.Synthesis and applications: Our results revealed that the effect of cattle on wild herbivores varies considerably among species, suggesting that cattle‐wildlife interactions range from facilitation to competition. To maintain species that strongly avoid cattle, designated livestock‐free zones remain essential, also in rotational grazing systems. Rotational grazing systems with regulated livestock densities present an important opportunity to better manage wildlife‐livestock coexistence and thus improve wildlife conservation in African rangelands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Massive and accelerating degradation and fragmentation of natural vegetation with the expansion of bare ground was observed in the unprotected land in Mara ecosystem. • Directional change was minimal in the fully protected national reserve. • Vegetation resistance to drought was lowest on unprotected land, intermediate under community-based conservation and highest under full protection. • The Mara ecosystem is heavily threatened, but conservation management can counteract negative trends. • Semi-protected community-based land-sharing conservation offers clear, partial buffering against degradation. Savanna megafauna have become scarce outside of protected areas in Africa, largely because of land conversion for farming (smallholders and agribusiness) and expansion of settlements and other infrastructure. Intensification also isolates protected areas, even affecting natural processes within reserve boundaries. Here, we used satellite imagery from the past 32 years in the iconic Maasai Mara ecosystem to assess the capacity of different land tenures to prevent degradation. We compare unprotected land with two types of conservation management: fully protected land without livestock (land sparing) and semi-protected community-based conservation – protected land with regulated livestock densities (land sharing). On unprotected land (61% of the area), we detected massive and accelerating degradation and fragmentation of natural vegetation, with large losses of woodland (62%) and grassland (56%), resulting in the expansion of bare ground. In contrast, directional change was minimal in both types of protected areas. Vegetation resistance to drought was lowest on unprotected land, intermediate under community-based conservation and highest under full protection. Our results show that the Mara ecosystem is under heavy pressure, but that conservation management counteracts negative trends. Importantly, semi-protected community-based land-sharing conservation offers clear, partial buffering against degradation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]