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Aim: Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries. Methods: We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15-49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an "artificial" ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy. Results: Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm3 CD4 cell counts. Conclusion: Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the long term. Renouncing or significantly delaying the achievement of this goal, due to "legitimate" short term budgetary constraints would be a misguided choice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The majority of HIV-infected people in sub-Saharan Africa are women, many of reproductive age. Cameroon is severely hit by the AIDS epidemic and has developed a large national program for improving access to antiretroviral treatment (ART). The reproductive intentions of women living with HIV/AIDS (WLHA) who obtain access to ART in this country remain poorly documented. Our study aimed at exploring factors associated with the desire to have a child among 1433 ART-treated fertile WLHA aged <50. Analyses were based on data collected during the national cross-sectional survey EVAL (ANRS 12-116), which was conducted between September 2006 and March 2007 in 27 HIV care centers in Cameroon. Logistic regression was used to explore factors associated with women's desire to have a child, defined as reporting the wish to have a/another child. A total of 791 women (55%) reported the desire to have a child. After adjusting for age, matrimonial status, number of biological children, and sexual activity, the main factors independently associated with this desire in a multivariate analysis were having a good physical health-related quality of life (1.02 [1.01-1.03] for a one-point increment on the 12-item Short-Form Health Survey scale) and a CD4 count at ART initiation <200 cells/mm3 (1.7 [1.2-2.4]). As a conclusion, the desire to have a child is frequent among ART-treated WLHA in Cameroon. HIV care and family planning programs should be integrated more thoroughly in order to support WLHA's reproductive choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]