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In 2007, the Anaktuvuk River fire burned more than 1000 km2 of arctic tundra in northern Alaska, ~ 50% of which occurred in an area with ice-rich syngenetic permafrost (Yedoma). By 2014, widespread degradation of ice wedges was apparent in the Yedoma region. In a 50 km2 area, thaw subsidence was detected across 15% of the land area in repeat airborne LiDAR data acquired in 2009 and 2014. Updating observations with a 2021 airborne LiDAR dataset show that additional thaw subsidence was detected in < 1% of the study area, indicating stabilization of the thaw-affected permafrost terrain. Ground temperature measurements between 2010 and 2015 indicated that the number of near-surface soil thawing-degree-days at the burn site were 3 × greater than at an unburned control site, but by 2022 the number was reduced to 1.3 × greater. Mean annual ground temperature of the near-surface permafrost increased by 0.33 °C/yr in the burn site up to 7-years post-fire, but then cooled by 0.15 °C/yr in the subsequent eight years, while temperatures at the control site remained relatively stable. Permafrost cores collected from ice-wedge troughs (n = 41) and polygon centers (n = 8) revealed the presence of a thaw unconformity, that in most cases was overlain by a recovered permafrost layer that averaged 14.2 cm and 18.3 cm, respectively. Taken together, our observations highlight that the initial degradation of ice-rich permafrost following the Anaktuvuk River tundra fire has been followed by a period of thaw cessation, permafrost aggradation, and terrain stabilization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal snowpack is an important predictor of available water resources in the following spring and early summer melt season. Total basin snow water equivalent (SWE) estimation usually requires a form of statistical analysis that is implicitly built upon the Gaussian framework. However, it is important to characterize the non-Gaussian properties of snow distribution for accurate large-scale SWE estimation based on remotely sensed or sparse ground-based observations. This study quantified non-Gaussianity using sample negentropy, the Kullback–Leibler divergence from Gaussian distribution, for field-observed snow depth data on the North Slope, Alaska, and three representative SWE distributions in the western US from the Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO). Snowdrifts around lakeshore cliffs and deep gullies can bring moderate non-Gaussianity in the open, lowland tundra of North Slope, Alaska, while the ASO dataset suggests that subalpine forests may effectively suppress the non-Gaussianity of snow distribution. Thus, non-Gaussianity is found in areas with partial snow cover and wind-induced snowdrifts around topographic breaks in slope and other steep terrain features. The snowpacks may be considered weakly Gaussian in coastal regions with open tundra in Alaska and alpine and subalpine terrains in the western US if the land is completely covered by snow. The wind-induced snowdrift effect can be potentially partitioned from the observed snow spatial distribution guided by its Gaussianity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Permafrost warming and degradation is well documented across the Arctic. However, observation‐ and model‐based studies typically consider thaw to occur at 0°C, neglecting the widespread occurrence of saline permafrost in coastal plain regions. In this study, we document rapid saline permafrost thaw below a shallow arctic lake. Over the 15‐year period, the lakebed subsided by 0.6 m as ice‐rich, saline permafrost thawed. Repeat transient electromagnetic measurements show that near‐surface bulk sediment electrical conductivity increased by 198% between 2016 and 2022. Analysis of wintertime Synthetic Aperture Radar satellite imagery indicates a transition from a bedfast to a floating ice lake with brackish water due to saline permafrost thaw. The regime shift likely contributed to the 65% increase in thermokarst lake lateral expansion rates. Our results indicate that thawing saline permafrost may be contributing to an increase in landscape change rates in the Arctic faster than anticipated. Plain Language Summary: In this study, we combine direct field measurements, near‐surface geophysical studies, and remote sensing change detection to document the rapid thaw of saline permafrost below a shallow thermokarst lake on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. Thaw of ice‐rich saline permafrost resulted in an increase in the lake depth by 0.6 m over a 15‐year period. The transition from a bedfast ice lake to a floating ice lake with brackish water is responsible for the increase near‐surface bulk sediment electrical conductivity and likely contributed to an increase in the lateral expansion rate of the lake. Our findings indicate that active permafrost thaw is likely occurring below shallow arctic lakes at temperatures below 0°C. Key Points: We document the rapid thaw and subsidence of saline permafrost below a shallow thermokarst lake in Arctic AlaskaWe hypothesize that rapid saline permafrost degradation is occurring below shallow arctic lakes at sub‐zero temperaturesThawing saline permafrost may be contributing to an increase in landscape change rates in the Arctic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buzard, R.M.; Kinsman, N.E.M.; Maio, C.V.; Erikson, L.H.; Jones, B.M.; Anderson, S.; Glenn, R.J.T., and Overbeck, J.R., 2023. Barrier island reconfiguration leads to rapid erosion and relocation of a rural Alaska community. Journal of Coastal Research, 39(4), 625–642. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208. Coastal erosion is one of the foremost hazards that circumpolar communities face. Climate change and warming temperatures are anticipated to accelerate coastal change, increasing risk to coastal communities. Most erosion hazard studies for Alaska communities only consider linear erosion and do not anticipate coastal morphologic changes. This study showcases the possibility and consequence of accelerated erosion by examining a shift from stability to rapid erosion that forced the rural Alaska Native village of Meshik (now Port Heiden) to abandon the original town site and relocate inland. A combination of remote sensing, coastal surveys, and community-based monitoring are used to map coastal morphologic changes and identify erosion drivers. The community's shoreline was stable until a protective barrier island eroded away. The exposure to open ocean waves, coupled with unconsolidated, low-density sediments, led to rapid erosion rates averaging 5.8 ± 0.6 m/y from the 1970s to 2020s. The sudden and rapid erosion put great stress on Meshik residents and resulted in the loss of homes, erosion of a safe boat harbor, and pollution of the beach and bay. Erosion of the barrier island coincided with a period of greater storm activity and sea ice decline, but the exact cause could not be determined. Many polar communities are built on or behind barriers and are on erodible soils such as sands and thawing permafrost. This study highlights the need to study, monitor, and predict morphologic change and regime shifts that can bring catastrophic impacts to coastal communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few fires are known to have burned the tundra of the Arctic Slope north of the Brooks Range in Alaska, USA. A total of 90 fires between 1969 and 2022 are known. Because fire has been rare, old burns can be detected by the traces of thermokarst and distinct vegetation they leave in otherwise uniform tundra, which are visible in aerial photograph archives. Several prehistoric tundra burns have been found in this way. Detection of tundra fires in this sparsely populated and remote area has been historically inconsistent and opportunistic, relying on reports by aircraft pilots. Fire reports have been logged into an administrative database which, out of necessity, has been used to scientifically evaluate changes in the fire regime. To improve the consistency of the record, we completed a systematic search of Landsat Collection 2 for the Brooks Range Foothills ecoregion over the period 1972–2022. We found 57 unrecorded tundra burns, about 41% of the total, which now numbers 138. Only 15% and 33% of all fires appear in MODIS and VIIRS satellite-borne thermal anomaly products, respectively. The fire frequency in the first 37 years of the record is 0.89 y−1 for natural ignitions that spread ≥10 ha. Frequency in the last 13 years is 2.5 y−1, indicating a nearly three-fold increase in fire frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is occurring rapidly in the Arctic, and an improved understanding of the response of aquatic biota and ecosystems will be important for this data‐limited region. Here, we applied biochronology techniques and mixed‐effects modelling to assess relationships among growth increments found on lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) otoliths (N = 49) captured from 13 lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, observed and modelled climate patterns, and individual‐level fish and lake characteristics. We found that annual growth varied by year, fish growth slowed significantly as individuals aged, and females grew faster than males. Lake trout had higher growth in flow‐through lakes relative to lakes that were perennially or seasonally connected. Annual growth was positively correlated with observed air temperature measurements from a local weather station for the period 1998–2014, but no clear warming trend was evident for this period. Modelled August air temperatures from 1978–2014 predicted lake trout annual growth (root mean squared error = 0.045 mm) and indicated increasing temperatures and annual lake trout growth over the period 1950–2014. This study demonstrated that biochronology techniques can reconstruct recent climate patterns and provide a better understanding of trends in Arctic lake ecosystems under a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 29 June 2022, local observers reported the drainage of a 0.5 ha lake near Qikiqtaġruk (Kotzebue), Alaska, that prompted this collaborative study on the life cycle of a thermokarst lake in the Arctic. Prior to its drainage, the lake expanded from 0.13 ha in 1951 to 0.54 ha in 2021 at lateral rates that ranged from 0.25 to 0.35 m/year. During the drainage event, we estimate that 18,500 m3 of water drained from the lake into Kotzebue Sound, forming a 125-m-long thermo-erosional gully that incised 2 to 14 m in ice-rich permafrost. Between 29 June and 18 August 2022, the drainage gully expanded from 1 m to >10 m wide, mobilizing ~8,500 m3 of material through erosion and thaw. By reconstructing a pre-lake disturbance terrain model, we show that thaw subsidence occurs rapidly (0.78 m/year) upon transition from tundra to lake but that over a seventy-year period it slows to 0.12 m/year. The combination of multiple remote sensing tools and local environmental observations provided a rich data set that allowed us to assess rates of lake expansion relative to rates of sub-lake permafrost thaw subsidence as well as hypothesizing about the potential role of beavers in arctic lake drainage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes in the Arctic are important reservoirs of heat with much lower albedo in summer and greater absorption of solar radiation than surrounding tundra vegetation. In the winter, lakes that do not freeze to their bed have a mean annual bed temperature >0 ∘ C in an otherwise frozen landscape. Under climate warming scenarios, we expect Arctic lakes to accelerate thawing of underlying permafrost due to warming water temperatures in the summer and winter. Previous studies of Arctic lakes have focused on ice cover and thickness, the ice decay process, catchment hydrology, lake water balance, and eddy covariance measurements, but little work has been done in the Arctic to model lake heat balance. We applied the LAKE 2.0 model to simulate water temperatures in three Arctic lakes in northern Alaska over several years and tested the sensitivity of the model to several perturbations of input meteorological variables (precipitation, shortwave radiation, and air temperature) and several model parameters (water vertical resolution, sediment vertical resolution, depth of soil column, and temporal resolution). The LAKE 2.0 model is a one-dimensional model that explicitly solves vertical profiles of water state variables on a grid. We used a combination of meteorological data from local and remote weather stations, as well as data derived from remote sensing, to drive the model. We validated modeled water temperatures with data of observed lake water temperatures at several depths over several years for each lake. Our validation of the LAKE 2.0 model is a necessary step toward modeling changes in Arctic lake ice regimes, lake heat balance, and thermal interactions with permafrost. The sensitivity analysis shows us that lake water temperature is not highly sensitive to small changes in air temperature or precipitation, while changes in shortwave radiation and large changes in precipitation produced larger effects. Snow depth and lake ice strongly affect water temperatures during the frozen season, which dominates the annual thermal regime of Arctic lakes. These findings suggest that reductions in lake ice thickness and duration could lead to more heat storage by lakes and enhanced permafrost degradation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) in northern Alaska (USA), permafrost and abundant surface‐water storage define watershed hydrological processes. In the last decades, the ACP landscape experienced extreme climate events and increased lake water withdrawal (LWW) for infrastructure construction, primarily ice roads and industrial operations. However, their potential (combined) effects on streamflow are relatively underexplored. Here, we applied the process‐based, spatially distributed hydrological and thermal Water Balance Simulation Model (10 m spatial resolution) to the 30 km2 Crea Creek watershed located on the ACP. The impacts of documented seasonal climate extremes and LWW were evaluated on seasonal runoff (May–August), including minimum 7‐day mean flow (MQ7), the recovery time of MQ7 to pre‐perturbation conditions, and the duration of streamflow conditions that prevents fish passage. Low‐rainfall scenarios (21% of normal, one to three summers in a row) caused a larger reduction in MQ7 (−56% to −69%) than LWW alone (−44% to −58%). Decadal‐long consecutive LWW under average climate conditions resulted in a new equilibrium in low flow and seasonal runoff after 3 years that included a disconnected stream network, a reduced watershed contributing area (54% of total watershed area), and limited fish passage of 20 days (vs. 6 days under control conditions) throughout summer. Our results highlight that, even under current average climatic conditions, LWW is not offset by same‐year snowmelt as currently assumed in land management regulations. Effective land management would therefore benefit from considering the combined impact of climate change and industrial LWWs. Key Points: Winter lake water withdrawal (LWW) reduces summer low‐ and average streamflow with the recovery time of up to 3 yrWinter LWW is not counterbalanced by same‐year snowmelt recharge as currently assumed in land management regulationsLow rainfall (21% of normal) combined with winter LWW lead to intermittently dry streams in the following three summers [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beavers were not previously recognized as an Arctic species, and their engineering in the tundra is considered negligible. Recent findings suggest that beavers have moved into Arctic tundra regions and are controlling surface water dynamics, which strongly influence permafrost and landscape stability. Here we use 70 years of satellite images and aerial photography to show the scale and magnitude of northwestward beaver expansion in Alaska, indicated by the construction of over 10,000 beaver ponds in the Arctic tundra. The number of beaver ponds doubled in most areas between ~ 2003 and ~ 2017. Earlier stages of beaver engineering are evident in ~ 1980 imagery, and there is no evidence of beaver engineering in ~ 1952 imagery, consistent with observations from Indigenous communities describing the influx of beavers over the period. Rapidly expanding beaver engineering has created a tundra disturbance regime that appears to be thawing permafrost and exacerbating the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermokarst lake dynamics, which play an essential role in carbon release due to permafrost thaw, are affected by various geomorphological processes. In this study, we derive a three-dimensional (3D) Stefan equation to characterize talik geometry under a hypothetical thermokarst lake in the continuous permafrost region. Using the Euler equation in the calculus of variations, the lower bounds of the talik were determined as an extremum of the functional describing the phase boundary area with a fixed total talik volume. We demonstrate that the semi-ellipsoid geometry of the talik is optimal for minimizing the total permafrost thaw under the lake for a given annual heat supply. The model predicting ellipsoidal talik geometry was compared to talik thickness observations using transient electromagnetic (TEM) soundings in Peatball Lake on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska. The depth : width ratio of the elliptical sub-lake talik can characterize the energy flux anisotropy in the permafrost, although the lake bathymetry cross section may not be elliptic due to the presence of near-surface ice-rich permafrost. This theory suggests that talik development deepens lakes and results in more uniform horizontal lake expansion around the perimeter of the lakes, while wind-induced waves and currents are likely responsible for the elongation and orientation of shallow thermokarst lakes without taliks in certain regions such as the ACP of northern Alaska. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes in the Arctic are important reservoirs of heat with much lower albedo in summer and larger absorption of solar radiation than surrounding tundra vegetation. In the winter, lakes that do not freeze to their bed have a mean annual bed temperature > 0 °C in an otherwise frozen landscape. Under climate warming scenarios, we expect Arctic lakes to accelerate thawing underlying permafrost due to warming waters in the summer and in the winter. Previous studies of Arctic lakes have focused on ice cover and thickness, the ice decay process, catchment hydrology, lake water balance, and eddy covariance measurements, but little work has been done in the Arctic to model lake heat balance. We applied the LAKE 2.0 model to simulate water temperatures in three Arctic lakes in Northern Alaska over several years and tested the sensitivity of the model to several perturbations of input meteorological variables (precipitation, shortwave radiation, and air temperature). The LAKE model is a one-dimensional model that explicitly solves vertical profiles of water state variables on a grid. We used a combination of meteorological data from local and remote weather stations, as well as data derived from remote sensing, to drive the model. We validated modelled water temperatures with data of observed lake temperatures at several depths. Our validation of the LAKE model completes a necessary step toward modelling changes in Arctic lake ice regimes, lake heat balance, and thermal interactions with permafrost. The sensitivity analysis shows us that the LAKE model is not highly sensitive to the weather data perturbations used in this study. Our results show that snow depth and lake ice strongly affect water temperatures during the frozen season which dominates the annual thermal regime. These findings suggest that reductions in lake ice thickness and duration could lead to more heat storage by lakes and enhanced permafrost degradation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snowdrift, which results from deposition of wind transported snow, has been primarily estimated empirically rather than using physically‐based modelling since the snow redistribution process is extremely complex. This study demonstrates a practical predictive model for snow redistribution based on the Linear Particle Distribution equation, which consists of snow surface diffusion, snow surface advection, and snow surface erosion components. Here, we focus on numerical model development and implementation for two‐dimensional natural terrains at meter‐scale resolutions with and without perforated snow fences, which has been difficult to model in a two‐dimensional field. First, a selected numerical scheme was implemented in the Snow Movement Over Open Terrain for Hydrology model platform and tested by the exact solutions under a few well‐defined boundary conditions. Then, to simulate snowdrifts around the snow detention structures in the middle of the computational domain, an equivalent solid snow fence concept was introduced and tested. The model was applied to several terrains in the Laramie Range, Wyoming, and at two sites on the North Slope of Alaska, where wind‐induced snow redistribution plays a major role. Data from Airborne Light Detection and Ranging, Ground Penetrating Radar, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle photogrammetry were used to calibrate and validate the model. The numerical snow redistribution model effectively reproduces the observed snowdrift distributions when snow densification and snowmelt effects were minimal. The model applications illustrated that the diffusion effect generally dominated snow redistribution with limited contributions of advection and erosion effects for abrupt terrain transition and perforated object, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pleistocene sand sea on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska is underlain by an ancient sand dune field, a geological feature that affects regional lake characteristics. Many of these lakes, which cover approximately 20 % of the Pleistocene sand sea, are relatively deep (up to 25 m). In addition to the natural importance of ACP sand sea lakes for water storage, energy balance, and ecological habitat, the need for winter water for industrial development and exploration activities makes lakes in this region a valuable resource. However, ACP sand sea lakes have received little prior study. Here, we collect in situ bathymetric data to test 12 model variants for predicting sand sea lake depth based on analysis of Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) images. Lake depth gradients were measured at 17 lakes in midsummer 2017 using a Humminbird 798ci HD SI Combo automatic sonar system. The field-measured data points were compared to red–green–blue (RGB) bands of a Landsat-8 OLI image acquired on 8 August 2016 to select and calibrate the most accurate spectral-depth model for each study lake and map bathymetry. Exponential functions using a simple band ratio (with bands selected based on lake turbidity and bed substrate) yielded the most successful model variants. For each lake, the most accurate model explained 81.8 % of the variation in depth, on average. Modeled lake bathymetries were integrated with remotely sensed lake surface area to quantify lake water storage volumes, which ranged from 1.056×10-3 to 57.416×10-3 km 3. Due to variations in depth maxima, substrate, and turbidity between lakes, a regional model is currently infeasible, rendering necessary the acquisition of additional in situ data with which to develop a regional model solution. Estimating lake water volumes using remote sensing will facilitate better management of expanding development activities and serve as a baseline by which to evaluate future responses to ongoing and rapid climate change in the Arctic. All sonar depth data and modeled lake bathymetry rasters can be freely accessed at 10.18739/A2SN01440 (Simpson and Arp, 2018) and 10.18739/A2HT2GC6G (Simpson, 2019), respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes in permafrost regions are dynamic landscape components and play an important role for climate change feedbacks. Lake processes such as mineralization and flocculation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), one of the main carbon fractions in lakes, contribute to the greenhouse effect and are part of the global carbon cycle. These processes are in the focus of climate research, but studies so far are limited to specific study regions. In our synthesis, we analyzed 2167 water samples from 1833 lakes across the Arctic in permafrost regions of Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and Siberia to provide first pan-Arctic insights for linkages between DOC concentrations and the environment. Using published data and unpublished datasets from the author team, we report regional DOC differences linked to latitude, permafrost zones, ecoregions, geology, near-surface soil organic carbon contents, and ground ice classification of each lake region. The lake DOC concentrations in our dataset range from 0 to 1130 mg L -1 (10.8 mg L -1 median DOC concentration). Regarding the permafrost regions of our synthesis, we found median lake DOC concentrations of 12.4 mg L -1 (Siberia), 12.3 mg L -1 (Alaska), 10.3 mg L -1 (Greenland), and 4.5 mg L -1 (Canada). Our synthesis shows a significant relationship between lake DOC concentration and lake ecoregion. We found higher lake DOC concentrations at boreal permafrost sites compared to tundra sites. We found significantly higher DOC concentrations in lakes in regions with ice-rich syngenetic permafrost deposits (yedoma) compared to non-yedoma lakes and a weak but significant relationship between soil organic carbon content and lake DOC concentration as well as between ground ice content and lake DOC. Our pan-Arctic dataset shows that the DOC concentration of a lake depends on its environmental properties, especially on permafrost extent and ecoregion, as well as vegetation, which is the most important driver of lake DOC in this study. This new dataset will be fundamental to quantify a pan-Arctic lake DOC pool for estimations of the impact of lake DOC on the global carbon cycle and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Riverbank erosion in yedoma regions strongly affects landscape evolution, biogeochemical cycling, sediment transport, and organic and nutrient fluxes to the Arctic Ocean. Since 2006, we have studied the 35‐m‐high Itkillik River yedoma bluff in northern Alaska, whose retreat rate during 1995–2010 was up to 19 m/yr, which is among the highest rates worldwide. This study extends our previous observations of bluff evolution and shows that average bluff‐top retreat rates decreased from 8.7–10.0 m/yr during 2011–2014 to 4.5–5.8 m/yr during 2015–2019, and bluff‐base retreat rates for the same time period decreased from 4.7–7.5 m/yr to 1.3–1.7 m/yr, correspondingly. Bluff evolution initially involves rapid fluvio‐thermal erosion at the base and block collapse, following by slowdown in river erosion and continuing thermal denudation of the retreating headwall with formation of baydzherakhs. Eventually, input of sediment and water from the headwall diminishes, vegetation develops, and slope gradually stabilizes. The step change in the fluvial–geomorphic system has resulted in a 60% decline in the volumetric mobilization of sediment and organic carbon between 2011 and 2019. Our findings stress the importance of sustained observations at key permafrost region study sites to elucidate critical information related to past and potential landscape evolution in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northwestern Alaska has been highly affected by changing climatic patterns with new temperature and precipitation maxima over the recent years. In particular, the Baldwin and northern Seward peninsulas are characterized by an abundance of thermokarst lakes that are highly dynamic and prone to lake drainage like many other regions at the southern margins of continuous permafrost. We used Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and Planet CubeSat optical remote sensing data to analyze recently observed widespread lake drainage. We then used synoptic weather data, climate model outputs and lake ice growth simulations to analyze potential drivers and future pathways of lake drainage in this region. Following the warmest and wettest winter on record in 2017/2018, 192 lakes were identified as having completely or partially drained by early summer 2018, which exceeded the average drainage rate by a factor of ∼ 10 and doubled the rates of the previous extreme lake drainage years of 2005 and 2006. The combination of abundant rain- and snowfall and extremely warm mean annual air temperatures (MAATs), close to 0 ∘ C, may have led to the destabilization of permafrost around the lake margins. Rapid snow melt and high amounts of excess meltwater further promoted rapid lateral breaching at lake shores and consequently sudden drainage of some of the largest lakes of the study region that have likely persisted for millennia. We hypothesize that permafrost destabilization and lake drainage will accelerate and become the dominant drivers of landscape change in this region. Recent MAATs are already within the range of the predictions by the University of Alaska Fairbanks' Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (UAF SNAP) ensemble climate predictions in scenario RCP6.0 for 2100. With MAAT in 2019 just below 0 ∘ C at the nearby Kotzebue, Alaska, climate station, permafrost aggradation in drained lake basins will become less likely after drainage, strongly decreasing the potential for freeze-locking carbon sequestered in lake sediments, signifying a prominent regime shift in ice-rich permafrost lowland regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes in permafrost regions are dynamic landscape components and play an important role for climate change feedbacks. Lake processes such as mineralization and flocculation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), one of the main carbon fractions in lakes, contribute to the greenhouse effect and are part of the global carbon cycle. These processes are in focus of climate research but studies so far are limited to specific study regions. In our synthesis, we analysed 2,167 water samples from 1,833 lakes across the Arctic in permafrost regions of Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and Siberia to provide first pan-Arctic insights for linkages between DOC concentrations and the environment. Using published data and unpublished datasets from the author team we report regional DOC differences linked to latitude, permafrost zones, ecoregions, geology, near-surface soil organic carbon contents, and ground ice classification of each lake region. The lake DOC concentrations in our dataset range from 0 mg L-1 to 1,130 mg L-1 (10.8 mg L-1 median DOC concentration). Regarding the permafrost regions of our synthesis, we found median lake DOC concentrations of 12.4 mg L-1 (Siberia), 12.3 mg L-1 (Alaska), 10.3 mg L-1 (Greenland), and 4.5 mg L-1 (Canada). Our synthesis shows a significant relationship of lake DOC concentration and ecoregion of the lake. We found higher lake DOC concentrations in boreal permafrost sites compared to tundra sites. About 22 % of the lakes in our extensive dataset are located in regions with ice-rich syngenetic permafrost deposits (yedoma). Yedoma contains large amounts of easily erodible organic carbon and we found significantly higher DOC concentrations in yedoma lakes compared to non-yedoma lakes. Compared to previous studies we found a weak significant relationship of soil organic carbon content and lake DOC concentration as well as between ground-ice content and lake DOC. Our pan-Arctic dataset shows that the DOC concentration of a lake strongly depends on its environmental properties, especially on permafrost extent and ecoregion, as well as vegetation, which is the most important driver of lake DOC in this study. This new dataset will be fundamental to quantify a pan-Arctic lake DOC pool for estimations of the impact of lake DOC on the global carbon cycle and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New development in regions with rapidly changing climates may experience unforeseen hazards. Thermokarst lakes (bodies of freshwater that collect in depressions formed by thawing permafrost) cover 20% of Arctic lowlands and are naturally prone to causing catastrophic flooding. Cumulative lake drainage over time has resulted in up to 60% landscape coverage by drained thermokarst lake basins (DTLBs). Although the impacts of lake drainage on ecosystems and infrastructure have long been considered a potential hazard, these occurrences are usually viewed as one‐time events. However, recent observations in northern Alaska highlight a previously unrecognized threat: annually recurring snow‐dam outburst floods from DTLBs. Each winter, blowing snow fills DTLB drainage gullies, impounding meltwater in the spring and – upon snow‐dam failure – releasing downstream floods. Data collected from 14 DTLBs in Alaska reveal a wide range in flood peaks, many of which exceed river flood events, providing a missing link in Arctic ecosystem hydrology. Projected snowier winters may result in even larger snow‐dam outbursts from DTLBs, adding uncertainty to future risk assessments. If climate change also drives enhanced lake drainage, we predict even more sporadic and higher magnitude floods, with implications for downstream ecosystems and human infrastructure as development pushes into the Arctic lowlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Talik and cryopeg development related to channel migration has been observed in arctic deltas, but our knowledge on the configuration, properties, and rate of freezeback has remained limited. Along a main channel of the Colville River Delta (Alaska), we integrated subsurface data from 79 boreholes with a remote sensing analysis to measure channel changes in 1948–2013. We found that closed taliks occurred under the active channel and extended into intrapermafrost cryopeg layers under the riverbed/riverbar and active floodplain. Cryopegs as isolated small pockets were also identified at depths in older terrain units. In the study corridor, we estimated that the likelihood of talik and cryopeg occurrence was predominantly (42.2% of area) low, yet a high likelihood was also identified (27.0% of area). Permafrost growth occurred at a rapid rate in the land exposed following channel migration, likely due to the low and delayed release of latent heat as the freezing front progresses downward in the coarse‐grained soils of increasing salinity but decreasing temperatures. As the deposits keep cooling, ground ice will continue forming therefore increasing furthermore the salinity of the remaining unfrozen soil pore‐water and likely prevent the complete freezeback of the cryopegs developed in relation to channel migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensification of coastal storms, combined with declining sea ice cover, sea level rise, and changes to permafrost conditions, will likely increase the incidence and impact of storm surge flooding in Arctic coastal environments. In coastal communities accurate information on the exposure of infrastructure can make an important contribution to adaptation planning. In this study, we use high resolution elevation data from airborne LiDAR to generate storm flooding scenarios for three coastal communities (Utqiaġvik, Wainwright, and Kaktovik) in northern Alaska. To estimate the potential for damage to infrastructure caused by flooding for each community, we generated data on replacement costs and used it to estimate the financial impact of 24 storm flooding scenarios of varying intensities. This analysis shows that all three communities are exposed to storm surges, but highlights the fact that infrastructure in Utqiaġvik (the administrative center of the North Slope Borough) is significantly more exposed than buildings in Wainwright and Kaktovik. Our findings show that flooding scenarios can complement information gained from past events and help to inform local-decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pleistocene Sand Sea on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska is underlain by an ancient sand dune field, a geological feature that affects regional lake characteristics. Many of these lakes, which cover approximately 20% of the Pleistocene Sand Sea, are relatively deep (up to 25m). In addition to the natural importance of ACP Sand Sea lakes for water storage, energy balance, and ecological habitat, the need for winter water for industrial development and exploration activities makes lakes in this region a valuable resource. However, ACP Sand Sea lakes have received little prior study. Here, we use in situ bathymetric data to test 12 model variants for predicting Sand Sea lake depth based on analysis of Landast-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) images. Lake depth gradients were measured at 17 lakes in mid-summer 2017 using a HumminBird 798ci HD SI Combo automatic sonar system (Simpson and Arp, 2018). The field measured data points were compared to Red-Green-Blue (RGB) bands of a Landsat-8 OLI image acquired on 8 August 2016 to select and calibrate the most accurate spectral-depth model for each study lake and estimate bathymetry (Simpson, 2019). Exponential functions using a simple band ratio (with bands selected based on lake turbidity and bed substrate) yielded the most successful model variants. For each lake, the most accurate model explained 81.8% of the variation in depth, on average. Modeled lake bathymetries were integrated with remotely sensed lake surface area to quantify lake water storage volumes, which ranged from 1.056 x 10-3xkm³ to 57.416 x 10-3 km³. Due to variation in depth maxima, substrate, and turbidity between lakes, a regional model is currently infeasible, rendering necessary the acquisition of additional in situ data with which to develop a regional model solution. Estimating lake water volumes using remote sensing will facilitate better management of expanding development activities and serve as a baseline by which to evaluate future responses to ongoing and rapid climate change in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our understanding of tundra fire effects in Northern Alaska is limited because fires have been relatively rare. We sampled a 70+ year-old burn visible in a 1948 aerial photograph for vegetation composition and structure, soil attributes, terrain rugosity, and thermokarst pit density. Between 1948 and 2017 the burn initially became wetter as ice wedges melted but then drained and dried as the troughs became hydrologically connected. The reference tundra has become wetter over the last few decades and appears to be lagging through a similar sequence. The burn averaged 2.5 °C warmer than the reference tundra at 30 cm depth. Thinning of organic soil following fire appears to dramatically accelerate the background degradation of ground-ice features in response to climate change and promotes a plant community that is distinct in terms of taxa and structure, dominated by tall willows and other competitive, rather than cold-tolerant, species. The cover of sedges and mosses is low while that of willows and grass is high relative to the reference tundra. The changes in plant community composition and structure, increasing ground temperature, and thermokarst lead us to expect the observed biophysical changes to the tundra will persist centuries into the future. • An old tundra burn was found in a 1948 aerial photograph in northern Alaska. • Fire resulted in melted ground-ice, thermokarst, and conspicuously tall willows. • The adjacent unburned tundra also shows signs of thermokarst related to climate change. • There was a shift from cold-tolerant to competitive plants within the burn. • Ground temperature continues to warm relative to the unburned tundra. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic lakes located in permafrost regions are susceptible to catastrophic drainage. In this study, we reconstructed historical lake drainage events on the western Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska between 1955 and 2017 using USGS topographic maps, historical aerial photography (1955), and Landsat Imagery (ca. 1975, ca. 2000, and annually since 2000). We identified 98 lakes larger than 10 ha that partially (>25% of area) or completely drained during the 62‐year period. Decadal‐scale lake drainage rates progressively declined from 2.0 lakes/yr (1955–1975), to 1.6 lakes/yr (1975–2000), and to 1.2 lakes/yr (2000–2017) in the ~30,000‐km2 study area. Detailed Landsat trend analysis between 2000 and 2017 identified two years, 2004 and 2006, with a cluster (five or more) of lake drainages probably associated with bank overtopping or headward erosion. To identify future potential lake drainages, we combined the historical lake drainage observations with a geospatial dataset describing lake elevation, hydrologic connectivity, and adjacent lake margin topographic gradients developed with a 5‐m‐resolution digital surface model. We identified ~1900 lakes likely to be prone to drainage in the future. Of the 20 lakes that drained in the most recent study period, 85% were identified in this future lake drainage potential dataset. Our assessment of historical lake drainage magnitude, mechanisms and pathways, and identification of potential future lake drainages provides insights into how arctic lowland landscapes may change and evolve in the coming decades to centuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermokarst lake landscapes are permafrost regions, which are prone to rapid (on seasonal to decadal time scales) changes, affecting carbon and nitrogen cycles. However, there is a high degree of uncertainty related to the balance between carbon and nitrogen cycling and storage. We collected 12 permafrost soil cores from six drained thermokarst lake basins (DTLBs) along a chronosequence north of Teshekpuk Lake in northern Alaska and analyzed them for carbon and nitrogen contents. For comparison, we included three lacustrine cores from an adjacent thermokarst lake and one soil core from a non thermokarst affected remnant upland. This allowed to calculate the carbon and nitrogen stocks of the three primary landscape units (DTLB, lake, and upland), to reconstruct the landscape history, and to analyze the effect of thermokarst lake formation and drainage on carbon and nitrogen stocks. We show that carbon and nitrogen contents and the carbon-nitrogen ratio are considerably lower in sediments of extant lakes than in the DTLB or upland cores indicating degradation of carbon during thermokarst lake formation. However, we found similar amounts of total carbon and nitrogen stocks due to the higher density of lacustrine sediments caused by the lack of ground ice compared to DTLB sediments. In addition, the radiocarbon-based landscape chronology for the past 7,000 years reveals five successive lake stages of partially, spatially overlapping DTLBs in the study region, reflecting the dynamic nature of ice-rich permafrost deposits. With this study, we highlight the importance to include these dynamic landscapes in future permafrost carbon feedback models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contemporary climate change in Alaska has resulted in amplified rates of press and pulse disturbances that drive ecosystem change with significant consequences for socio‐environmental systems. Despite the vulnerability of Arctic and boreal landscapes to change, little has been done to characterize landscape change and associated drivers across northern high‐latitude ecosystems. Here we characterize the historical sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to environmental change and anthropogenic disturbances using expert knowledge, remote sensing data, and spatiotemporal analyses and modeling. Time‐series analysis of moderate—and high‐resolution imagery was used to characterize land‐ and water‐surface dynamics across Alaska. Some 430,000 interpretations of ecological and geomorphological change were made using historical air photos and satellite imagery, and corroborate land‐surface greening, browning, and wetness/moisture trend parameters derived from peak‐growing season Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2015. The time series of change metrics, together with climatic data and maps of landscape characteristics, were incorporated into a modeling framework for mapping and understanding of drivers of change throughout Alaska. According to our analysis, approximately 13% (~174,000 ± 8700 km2) of Alaska has experienced directional change in the last 32 years (±95% confidence intervals). At the ecoregions level, substantial increases in remotely sensed vegetation productivity were most pronounced in western and northern foothills of Alaska, which is explained by vegetation growth associated with increasing air temperatures. Significant browning trends were largely the result of recent wildfires in interior Alaska, but browning trends are also driven by increases in evaporative demand and surface‐water gains that have predominately occurred over warming permafrost landscapes. Increased rates of photosynthetic activity are associated with stabilization and recovery processes following wildfire, timber harvesting, insect damage, thermokarst, glacial retreat, and lake infilling and drainage events. Our results fill a critical gap in the understanding of historical and potential future trajectories of change in northern high‐latitude regions. Arctic and boreal landscapes have experienced unprecedented changes in recent decades that have significant consequences for socio‐environmental systems. Despite a legacy of studies that have documented the heightened sensitivity of northern landscapes to change, characterization and prognosis of ecosystem change has remained elusive. Here, we combine remote sensing and climate reanalysis data into an integrated modeling framework to fingerprint the historical (1984–2015) sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to changing environmental conditions and disturbances. Our results fill a critical gap in the understanding of the historical and potential future trajectories of change in Alaska, with direct relevance to other northern high‐latitude regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vast mosaics of lakes, wetlands, and rivers on the Arctic Coastal Plain give the impression of water surplus. Yet long winters lock freshwater resources in ice, limiting freshwater habitats and water supply for human uses. Increasingly the petroleum industry relies on lakes to build temporary ice roads for winter oil exploration. Permitting water withdrawal for ice roads in Arctic Alaska is dependent on lake depth, ice thickness, and the fish species present. Recent winter warming suggests that more winter water will be available for ice- road construction, yet high interannual variability in ice thickness and summer precipitation complicates habitat impact assessments. To address these concerns, multidisciplinary researchers are working to understand how Arctic freshwater habitats are responding to changes in both climate and water use in northern Alaska. The dynamics of habitat availability and connectivity are being linked to how food webs support fish and waterbirds across diverse freshwater habitats. Moving toward watershed-scale habitat classification coupled with scenario analysis of climate extremes and water withdrawal is increasingly relevant to future resource management decisions in this region. Such progressive refinement in understanding responses to change provides an example of adaptive management focused on ensuring responsible resource development in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Permafrost presence is determined by a complex interaction of climatic, topographic, and ecological conditions operating over long time scales. In particular, vegetation and organic layer characteristics may act to protect permafrost in regions with a mean annual air temperature (MAAT) above 0 °C. In this study, we document the presence of residual permafrost plateaus in the western Kenai Peninsula lowlands of south-central Alaska, a region with a MAAT of 1.5±1 °C (1981-2010). Continuous ground temperature measurements between 16 September 2012 and 15 September 2015, using calibrated thermistor strings, documented the presence of warm permafrost (-0.04 to -0.08 °C). Field measurements (probing) on several plateau features during the fall of 2015 showed that the depth to the permafrost table averaged 1.48m but at some locations was as shallow as 0.53 m. Late winter surveys (augering, coring, and GPR) in 2016 showed that the average seasonally frozen ground thickness was 0.45 m, overlying a talik above the permafrost table. Measured permafrost thickness ranged from 0.33 to >6.90 m. Manual interpretation of historic aerial photography acquired in 1950 indicates that residual permafrost plateaus covered 920 ha as mapped across portions of four wetland complexes encompassing 4810 ha. However, between 1950 and ca. 2010, permafrost plateau extent decreased by 60.0%, with lateral feature degradation accounting for 85.0% of the reduction in area. Permafrost loss on the Kenai Peninsula is likely associated with a warming climate, wildfires that remove the protective forest and organic layer cover, groundwater flow at depth, and lateral heat transfer from wetland surface waters in the summer. Better understanding the resilience and vulnerability of ecosystem-protected permafrost is critical for mapping and predicting future permafrost extent and degradation across all permafrost regions that are currently warming. Further work should focus on reconstructing permafrost history in south-central Alaska as well as additional contemporary observations of these ecosystem-protected permafrost sites south of the regions with relatively stable permafrost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The formation and drainage of thermokarst lakes have reshaped ice-rich permafrost lowlands in the Arctic throughout the Holocene. North of Teshekpuk Lake, on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, thermokarst lakes presently occupy 22.5% of the landscape, and drained thermokarst lake basins occupy 61.8%. Analysis of remotely sensed imagery indicates that nine lakes (>10 ha) have drained in the 1,750 km2 study area between 1955 and 2014. The most recent lake drainage was observed using in situ data loggers providing information on the duration and magnitude of the event, and a nearby weather station provided information on the environmental conditions preceding the lake drainage. Lake 195 (L195), an 80 ha thermokarst lake with an estimated water volume of ~872,000 m3, catastrophically drained on 05 July 2014. Abundant winter snowfall and heavy early summer precipitation resulted in elevated lake water levels that likely promoted bank overtopping, thermo-erosion along an ice-wedge network, and formation of a 9 m wide, 2 m deep, and 70 m long drainage gully. The lake emptied in 36 hours, with 75% of the water volume loss occurring in the first ten hours. The observed peak discharge of the resultant flood was 25 m3/s, which is similar to that in northern Alaska river basins whose areas are more than two orders of magnitude larger. Our findings support the catastrophic nature of sudden lake drainage events and the mechanistic hypotheses developed by J. Ross Mackay. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The formation of oriented thermokarst lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska has been the subject of debate for more than half a century. The striking elongation of the lakes perpendicular to the prevailing wind direction has led to the development of a preferred wind-generated gyre hypothesis, while other hypotheses include a combination of sun angle, topographic aspect, and/or antecedent conditions. A spatio-temporal analysis of oriented thermokarst lake gyres with recent (Landsat 8) and historical (Landsat 4, 5, 7 and ASTER) satellite imagery of the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska indicates that wind-generated gyres are both frequent and regionally extensive. Gyres are most common in lakes located near the Arctic coast after several days of sustained winds from a single direction, typically the northeast, and decrease in number landward with decreasing wind energy. This analysis indicates that the conditions necessary for the Carson and Hussey (1962) wind-generated gyre for oriented thermokarst lake formation are common temporally and regionally and correspond spatially with the geographic distribution of oriented lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. Given an increase in the ice-free season for lakes as well as strengthening of the wind regime, the frequency and distribution of lake gyres may increase. This increase has implications for changes in northern high latitude aquatic ecosystems, particularly if wind-generated gyres promote permafrost degradation and thermokarst lake expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The timing of ice-out in high latitudes is a fundamental threshold for lake ecosystems and an indicator of climate change. In lake-rich regions, the loss of ice cover also plays a key role in landscape and climatic processes. Thus, there is a need to understand lake ice phenology at multiple scales. In this study, we observed ice-out timing on 55 large lakes in 11 lake districts across Alaska from 2007 to 2012 using satellite imagery. Sensor networks in two lake districts validated satellite observations and provided comparison with smaller lakes. Over this 6 yr period, the mean lake ice-out for all lakes was 27 May and ranged from 07 May in Kenai to 06 July in Arctic Coastal Plain lake districts with relatively low inter-annual variability. Approximately 80% of the variation in ice-out timing was explained by the date of 0°C air temperature isotherm and lake area. Shoreline irregularity, watershed area, and river connectivity explained additional variation in some districts. Coherence in ice-out timing within the lakes of each district was consistently strong over this 6 yr period, ranging from r-values of 0.5 to 0.9. Inter-district analysis of coherence also showed synchronous ice-out patterns with the exception of the two arctic coastal districts where ice-out occurs later (June-July) and climatology is sea-ice influenced. These patterns of lake ice phenology provide a spatially extensive baseline describing short-term temporal variability, which will help decipher longer term trends in ice phenology and aid in representing the role of lake ice in land and climate models in northern landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A predictive, coastal erosion/shoreline change model has been developed for a small coastal segment near Drew Point, Beaufort Sea, Alaska. This coastal setting has experienced a dramatic increase in erosion since the early 2000's. The bluffs at this site are 3-4 m tall and consist of ice-wedge bounded blocks of fine-grained sediments cemented by ice-rich permafrost and capped with a thin organic layer. The bluffs are typically fronted by a narrow (∼5 m wide) beach or none at all. During a storm surge, the sea contacts the base of the bluff and a niche is formed through thermal and mechanical erosion. The niche grows both vertically and laterally and eventually undermines the bluff, leading to block failure or collapse. The fallen block is then eroded both thermally and mechanically by waves and currents, which must occur before a new niche forming episode may begin. The erosion model explicitly accounts for and integrates a number of these processes including: (1) storm surge generation resulting from wind and atmospheric forcing, (2) erosional niche growth resulting from wave-induced turbulent heat transfer and sediment transport (using the Kobayashi niche erosion model), and (3) thermal and mechanical erosion of the fallen block. The model was calibrated with historic shoreline change data for one time period (1979-2002), and validated with a later time period (2002-2007). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Pingos are circular to elongate ice-cored mounds that form by injection and freezing of pressurized water in near-surface permafrost. Here we use a digital surface model (DSM) derived from an airborne Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IfSAR) system to assess the distribution and morphometry of pingos within a 40,000km2 area on the western Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. We have identified 1247 pingo forms in the study region, ranging in height from 2 to 21m, with a mean height of 4.6m. Pingos in this region are of hydrostatic origin, with 98% located within 995 drained lake basins, most of which are underlain by thick eolian sand deposits. The highest pingo density (0.18km−2) occurs where streams have reworked these deposits. Morphometric analyses indicate that most pingos are small to medium in size (<200m diameter), gently to moderately sloping (<30°), circular to slightly elongate (mean circularity index of 0.88), and of relatively low height (2 to 5m). However, 57 pingos stand higher than 10m, 26 have a maximum slope greater than 30°, and 42 are larger than 200m in diameter. Comparison with a legacy pingo dataset based on 1950s stereo-pair photography indicates that 66 may have partially or completely collapsed over the last half-century. However, we mapped over 400 pingos not identified in the legacy dataset, and identified only three higher than 2m to have formed between ca. 1955 and ca. 2005, indicating that caution should be taken when comparing contemporary and legacy datasets derived by different techniques. This comprehensive database of pingo location and morphometry based on an IfSAR DSM may prove useful for land and resource managers as well as aid in the identification of pingo-like features on Mars. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

ABSTRACT Investigations on the northern Seward Peninsula in Alaska identified zones of recent (<50 years) permafrost collapse that led to the formation of floating vegetation mats along thermokarst lake margins. The occurrence of floating vegetation mat features indicates rapid degradation of near-surface permafrost and lake expansion. This paper reports on the recent expansion of these collapse features and their geometry is determined using geophysical and remote sensing measurements. The vegetation mats were observed to have an average thickness of 0.57 m and petrophysical modeling indicated that gas content of 1.5-5% enabled floatation above the lake surface. Furthermore, geophysical investigation provides evidence that the mats form by thaw and subsidence of the underlying permafrost rather than terrestrialization. The temperature of the water below a vegetation mat was observed to remain above freezing late in the winter. Analysis of satellite and aerial imagery indicates that these features have expanded at maximum rates of 1-2 m yr-1 over a 56 year period. Including the spatial coverage of floating 'thermokarst mats' increases estimates of lake area by as much as 4% in some lakes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermokarst lakes cover >20% of the landscape throughout much of the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) with shallow lakes freezing solid (grounded ice) and deeper lakes maintaining perennial liquid water (floating ice). Thus, lake depth relative to maximum ice thickness (1·5-2·0 m) represents an important threshold that impacts permafrost, aquatic habitat, and potentially geomorphic and hydrologic behaviour. We studied coupled hydrogeomorphic processes of 13 lakes representing a depth gradient across this threshold of maximum ice thickness by analysing remotely sensed, water quality, and climatic data over a 35-year period. Shoreline erosion rates due to permafrost degradation ranged from <0·2 m/year in very shallow lakes (0·4 m) up to 1·8 m/year in the deepest lakes (2·6 m). This pattern of thermokarst expansion masked detection of lake hydrologic change using remotely sensed imagery except for the shallowest lakes with stable shorelines. Changes in the surface area of these shallow lakes tracked interannual variation in precipitation minus evaporation (P - EL) with periods of full and nearly dry basins. Shorter-term (2004-2008) specific conductance data indicated a drying pattern across lakes of all depths consistent with the long-term record for only shallow lakes. Our analysis suggests that grounded-ice lakes are ice-free on average 37 days longer than floating-ice lakes resulting in a longer period of evaporative loss and more frequent negative P-EL. These results suggest divergent hydrogeomorphic responses to a changing Arctic climate depending on the threshold created by water depth relative to maximum ice thickness in ACP lakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cape Halkett is located along the Beaufort Sea at the end of a low-lying tundra landscape. The area has been subject to major modifications over the last century as a result of erosion and migration of the coastline inland. Long-term mean annual erosion rates (1955-2009) for the entire cape are 7.6 m/yr, with a gradual increase in rates over the first five time periods of remotely sensed imagery analyzed and a large increase during the most recent time period. Division of the cape into three distinct coastal zones shows very different erosional patterns: the northeast-facing segment (Zone 1) showing a consistent and large increase; the southeast-facing segment (Zone 3) showing a gradual increase with recent, heightened erosion rates; and the east-facing segment (Zone 2) showing decreased rates due to the reformation of a sand and gravel spit. Monitoring of bluff erosion with time-lapse photography, differential GPS surveys, terrestrial and bathymetric surveys, and water level, sea and permafrost temperature data provide insights into the processes driving contemporary patterns of erosion and will provide valuable information for the prediction of future shoreline positions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2007, the Anaktuvuk River Fire (ARF) became the largest recorded tundra lire on the North Slope of Alaska. The ARF burned for nearly three months, consuming more than 100,000 ha. At its peak in early September, the ARF burned at a rate of 7000 ha d-1. The conditions potentially responsible for this large tundra lire include modeled record high summer temperature and record low summer precipitation, a late-season high-pressure system located over the Beaufort Sea, extremely dry soil conditions throughout the summer, and sustained southerly winds during the period of vegetation senescence. Burn severity mapping revealed that more than 80% of the ARF burned at moderate to extreme severity, while the nearby Kuparuk River Fire remained small and burned at predominantly (80%) low severity. While this study provides information that may aid in the prediction of future large tundra fires in northern Alaska, the fact that three other tundra fires that occurred in 2007 combined to burn less than 1000 ha suggests site specific complexities associated with tundra fires on the North Slope, which may hamper the development of tundra lire forecasting models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beavers have established themselves as a key component of low arctic ecosystems over the past several decades. Beavers are widely recognized as ecosystem engineers, but their effects on permafrost-dominated landscapes in the Arctic remain unclear. In this study, we document the occurrence, reconstruct the timing, and highlight the effects of beaver activity on a small creek valley confined by ice-rich permafrost on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska using multi-dimensional remote sensing analysis of satellite (Landsat-8, Sentinel-2, Planet CubeSat, and DigitalGlobe Inc./MAXAR) and unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) imagery. Beaver activity along the study reach of Swan Lake Creek appeared between 2006 and 2011 with the construction of three dams. Between 2011 and 2017, beaver dam numbers increased, with the peak occurring in 2017 (n = 9). Between 2017 and 2019, the number of dams decreased (n = 6), while the average length of the dams increased from 20 to 33 m. Between 4 and 20 August 2019, following a nine-day period of record rainfall (>125 mm), the well-established dam system failed, triggering the formation of a beaver-induced permafrost degradation feature. During the decade of beaver occupation between 2011 and 2021, the creek valley widened from 33 to 180 m (~450% increase) and the length of the stream channel network increased from ~0.6 km to more than 1.9 km (220% increase) as a result of beaver engineering and beaver-induced permafrost degradation. Comparing vegetation (NDVI) and snow (NDSI) derived indices from Sentinel-2 time-series data acquired between 2017 and 2021 for the beaver-induced permafrost degradation feature and a nearby unaffected control site, showed that peak growing season NDVI was lowered by 23% and that it extended the length of the snow-cover period by 19 days following the permafrost disturbance. Our analysis of multi-dimensional remote sensing data highlights several unique aspects of beaver engineering impacts on ice-rich permafrost landscapes. Our detailed reconstruction of the beaver-induced permafrost degradation event may also prove useful for identifying degradation of ice-rich permafrost in optical time-series datasets across regional scales. Future field- and remote sensing-based observations of this site, and others like it, will provide valuable information for the NSF-funded Arctic Beaver Observation Network (A-BON) and the third phase of the NASA Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) Field Campaign. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational data of coastal change over much of the Arctic are limited largely due to its immensity, remoteness, harsh environment, and restricted periods of sunlight and ice-free conditions. Barter Island, Alaska, is one of the few locations where an extensive, observational dataset exists, which enables a detailed assessment of the trends and patterns of coastal change over decadal to annual time scales. Coastal bluff and shoreline positions were delineated from maps, aerial photographs, and satellite imagery acquired between 1947 and 2020, and at a nearly annual rate since 2004. Rates and patterns of shoreline and bluff change varied widely over the observational period. Shorelines showed a consistent trend of southerly erosion and westerly extension of the western termini of Barter Island and Bernard Spit, which has accelerated since at least 2000. The 3.2 km long stretch of ocean-exposed coastal permafrost bluffs retreated on average 114 m and at a maximum of 163 m at an average long-term rate (70 year) of 1.6 ± 0.1 m/yr. The long-term retreat rate was punctuated by individual years with retreat rates up to four times higher (6.6 ± 1.9 m/yr; 2012–2013) and both long-term (multidecadal) and short-term (annual to semiannual) rates showed a steady increase in retreat rates through time, with consistently high rates since 2015. A best-fit polynomial trend indicated acceleration in retreat rates that was independent of the large spatial and temporal variations observed on an annual basis. Rates and patterns of bluff retreat were correlated to incident wave energy and air and water temperatures. Wave energy was found to be the dominant driver of bluff retreat, followed by sea surface temperatures and warming air temperatures that are considered proxies for evaluating thermo-erosion and denudation. Normalized anomalies of cumulative wave energy, duration of open water, and air and sea temperature showed at least three distinct phases since 1979: a negative phase prior to 1987, a mixed phase between 1987 and the early to late 2000s, followed by a positive phase extending to 2020. The duration of the open-water season has tripled since 1979, increasing from approximately 40 to 140 days. Acceleration in retreat rates at Barter Island may be related to increases in both thermodenudation, associated with increasing air temperature, and the number of niche-forming and block-collapsing episodes associated with higher air and water temperature, more frequent storms, and longer ice-free conditions in the Beaufort Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to increasing Arctic temperatures, ice-rich permafrost landscapes are undergoing rapid changes. In permafrost lowlands, polygonal ice wedges are especially prone to degradation. Melting of ice wedges results in deepening troughs and the transition from low-centered to high-centered ice-wedge polygons. This process has important implications for surface hydrology, as the connectivity of such troughs determines the rate of drainage for these lowland landscapes. In this study, we present a comprehensive, modular, and highly automated workflow to extract, to represent, and to analyze remotely sensed ice-wedge polygonal trough networks as a graph (i.e., network structure). With computer vision methods, we efficiently extract the trough locations as well as their geomorphometric information on trough depth and width from high-resolution digital elevation models and link these data within the graph. Further, we present and discuss the benefits of graph analysis algorithms for characterizing the erosional development of such thaw-affected landscapes. Based on our graph analysis, we show how thaw subsidence has progressed between 2009 and 2019 following burning at the Anaktuvuk River fire scar in northern Alaska, USA. We observed a considerable increase in the number of discernible troughs within the study area, while simultaneously the number of disconnected networks decreased from 54 small networks in 2009 to only six considerably larger disconnected networks in 2019. On average, the width of the troughs has increased by 13.86%, while the average depth has slightly decreased by 10.31%. Overall, our new automated approach allows for monitoring ice-wedge dynamics in unprecedented spatial detail, while simultaneously reducing the data to quantifiable geometric measures and spatial relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake formation and drainage are pervasive phenomena in permafrost regions. Drained lake basins (DLBs) are often the most common landforms in lowland permafrost regions in the Arctic (50% to 75% of the landscape). However, detailed assessments of DLB distribution and abundance are limited. In this study, we present a novel and scalable remote sensing-based approach to identifying DLBs in lowland permafrost regions, using the North Slope of Alaska as a case study. We validated this first North Slope-wide DLB data product against several previously published sub-regional scale datasets and manually classified points. The study area covered >71,000 km2, including a >39,000 km2 area not previously covered in existing DLB datasets. Our approach used Landsat-8 multispectral imagery and ArcticDEM data to derive a pixel-by-pixel statistical assessment of likelihood of DLB occurrence in sub-regions with different permafrost and periglacial landscape conditions, as well as to quantify aerial coverage of DLBs on the North Slope of Alaska. The results were consistent with previously published regional DLB datasets (up to 87% agreement) and showed high agreement with manually classified random points (64.4–95.5% for DLB and 83.2–95.4% for non-DLB areas). Validation of the remote sensing-based statistical approach on the North Slope of Alaska indicated that it may be possible to extend this methodology to conduct a comprehensive assessment of DLBs in pan-Arctic lowland permafrost regions. Better resolution of the spatial distribution of DLBs in lowland permafrost regions is important for quantitative studies on landscape diversity, wildlife habitat, permafrost, hydrology, geotechnical conditions, and high-latitude carbon cycling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

State-of-the-art deep learning technology has been successfully applied to relatively small selected areas of very high spatial resolution (0.15 and 0.25 m) optical aerial imagery acquired by a fixed-wing aircraft to automatically characterize ice-wedge polygons (IWPs) in the Arctic tundra. However, any mapping of IWPs at regional to continental scales requires images acquired on different sensor platforms (particularly satellite) and a refined understanding of the performance stability of the method across sensor platforms through reliable evaluation assessments. In this study, we examined the transferability of a deep learning Mask Region-Based Convolutional Neural Network (R-CNN) model for mapping IWPs in satellite remote sensing imagery (~0.5 m) covering 272 km2 and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) (0.02 m) imagery covering 0.32 km2. Multi-spectral images were obtained from the WorldView-2 satellite sensor and pan-sharpened to ~0.5 m, and a 20 mp CMOS sensor camera onboard a UAV, respectively. The training dataset included 25,489 and 6022 manually delineated IWPs from satellite and fixed-wing aircraft aerial imagery near the Arctic Coastal Plain, northern Alaska. Quantitative assessments showed that individual IWPs were correctly detected at up to 72% and 70%, and delineated at up to 73% and 68% F1 score accuracy levels for satellite and UAV images, respectively. Expert-based qualitative assessments showed that IWPs were correctly detected at good (40–60%) and excellent (80–100%) accuracy levels for satellite and UAV images, respectively, and delineated at excellent (80–100%) level for both images. We found that (1) regardless of spatial resolution and spectral bands, the deep learning Mask R-CNN model effectively mapped IWPs in both remote sensing satellite and UAV images; (2) the model achieved a better accuracy in detection with finer image resolution, such as UAV imagery, yet a better accuracy in delineation with coarser image resolution, such as satellite imagery; (3) increasing the number of training data with different resolutions between the training and actual application imagery does not necessarily result in better performance of the Mask R-CNN in IWPs mapping; (4) and overall, the model underestimates the total number of IWPs particularly in terms of disjoint/incomplete IWPs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing air temperatures are changing the arctic tundra biome. Permafrost is thawing, snow duration is decreasing, shrub vegetation is proliferating, and boreal wildlife is encroaching. Here we present evidence of the recent range expansion of North American beaver (Castor canadensis) into the Arctic, and consider how this ecosystem engineer might reshape the landscape, biodiversity, and ecosystem processes. We developed a remote sensing approach that maps formation and disappearance of ponds associated with beaver activity. Since 1999, 56 new beaver pond complexes were identified, indicating that beavers are colonizing a predominantly tundra region (18,293 km 2 ) of northwest Alaska. It is unclear how improved tundra stream habitat, population rebound following overtrapping for furs, or other factors are contributing to beaver range expansion. We discuss rates and likely routes of tundra beaver colonization, as well as effects on permafrost, stream ice regimes, and freshwater and riparian habitat. Beaver ponds and associated hydrologic changes are thawing permafrost. Pond formation increases winter water temperatures in the pond and downstream, likely creating new and more varied aquatic habitat, but specific biological implications are unknown. Beavers create dynamic wetlands and are agents of disturbance that may enhance ecosystem responses to warming in the Arctic., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) modeling has focused on gradual thaw of near-surface permafrost leading to enhanced carbon dioxide and methane emissions that accelerate global climate warming. These state-of-the-art land models have yet to incorporate deeper, abrupt thaw in the PCF. Here we use model data, supported by field observations, radiocarbon dating, and remote sensing, to show that methane and carbon dioxide emissions from abrupt thaw beneath thermokarst lakes will more than double radiative forcing from circumpolar permafrost-soil carbon fluxes this century. Abrupt thaw lake emissions are similar under moderate and high representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), but their relative contribution to the PCF is much larger under the moderate warming scenario. Abrupt thaw accelerates mobilization of deeply frozen, ancient carbon, increasing 14 C-depleted permafrost soil carbon emissions by ~125-190% compared to gradual thaw alone. These findings demonstrate the need to incorporate abrupt thaw processes in earth system models for more comprehensive projection of the PCF this century.

Lakes are dominant landforms in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) as well as important social and ecological resources. Of recent importance is the management of these freshwater ecosystems because lakes deeper than maximum ice thickness provide an important and often sole source of liquid water for aquatic biota, villages, and industry during winter. To better understand seasonal and annual hydrodynamics in the context of lake morphometry, we analyzed lakes in two adjacent areas where winter water use is expected to increase in the near future because of industrial expansion. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery acquired between 1985 and 2007 were analyzed and compared with climate data to understand interannual variability. Measured changes in lake area extent varied by 0.6% and were significantly correlated to total precipitation in the preceding 12 months (p < 0.05). Using this relation, the modeled lake area extent from 1985 to 2007 showed no long-term trends. In addition, high-resolution aerial photography, bathymetric surveys, water-level monitoring, and lake-ice thickness measurements and growth models were used to better understand seasonal hydrodynamics, surface area-to-volume relations, winter water availability, and more permanent changes related to geomorphic change. Together, these results describe how lakes vary seasonally and annually in two critical areas of the NPRA and provide simple models to help better predict variation in lake-water supply. Our findings suggest that both overestimation and underestimation of actual available winter water volume may occur regularly, and this understanding may help better inform management strategies as future resource use expands in the NPRA.