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The article presents a study that examines the net emissions of methane (CH4) in Alaska's ecosystem and atmosphere, and its contributions to carbon balance and greenhouse gas budget for the region. Under the investigation, (CH4) fluxes the 20th century to the 21st century were analyzed using the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), a biogeochemistry model. A concept of global warming potentials was then used to convert net (CH4) emissions into carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent units in terms of global warming effects. Results suggest that net methane emissions in the region will double by the end of the 21st century due to high-latitude warming and climate change, and that Alaska will be a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

Understanding the fate of organic carbon in thawed permafrost is crucial for predicting climate feedback. While minerals and microbial necromass are known to play crucial roles in the long-term stability of organic carbon in subsoils, their exact influence on carbon persistence in Arctic permafrost remains uncertain. Our study, combining radiocarbon dating and biomarker analyses, showed that soil organic carbon in Alaskan permafrost had millennial-scale radiocarbon ages and contained only 10%-15% microbial necromass carbon, significantly lower than the global average of ~30%-60%. This ancient carbon exhibited a weak correlation with reactive minerals but a stronger correlation with mineral weathering (reactive iron to total iron ratio). Peroxidase activity displayed a high correlation coefficient (p < 10 -6 ) with Δ 14 C and δ 13 C, indicating its strong predictive power for carbon persistence. Further, a positive correlation between peroxidase activity and polysaccharides indicates that increased peroxidase activity may promote the protection of plant residues, potentially by fostering the formation of mineral-organic associations. This protective role of mineral surfaces on biopolymers was further supported by examining 1451 synchrotron radiation infrared spectra from soil aggregates, which revealed a strong correlation between mineral OH groups and organic functional groups at the submicron scale. An incubation experiment revealed that increased moisture contents, particularly within the 0%-40% range, significantly elevated peroxidase activity, suggesting that ancient carbon in permafrost soils is vulnerable to moisture-induced destabilization. Collectively, this study offers mechanistic insights into the persistence of carbon in thawed permafrost soils, essential for refining permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

We used a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to study the net methane (CH4) fluxes between Alaskan ecosystems and the atmosphere. We estimated that the current net emissions of CH4 (emissions minus consumption) from Alaskan soils are approximately 3 Tg CH4/yr. Wet tundra ecosystems are responsible for 75% of the region's net emissions, while dry tundra and upland boreal forests are responsible for 50% and 45% of total consumption over the region, respectively. In response to climate change over the 21st century, our simulations indicated that CH4 emissions from wet soils would be enhanced more than consumption by dry soils of tundra and boreal forests. As a consequence, we projected that net CH4 emissions will almost double by the end of the century in response to high-latitude warming and associated climate changes. When we placed these CH4 emissions in the context of the projected carbon budget (carbon dioxide [CO2] and CH4) for Alaska at the end of the 21st century, we estimated that Alaska will be a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere of 69 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr, that is, a balance between net methane emissions of 131 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr and carbon sequestration of 17 Tg C/yr (62 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr).