1. Predicting the response of the Amazon rainforest to persistent drought conditions under current and future climates: a major challenge for global land surface models.
- Author
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Joetzjer, E., Delire, C., Douville, H., Ciais, P., Decharme, B., Fisher, R., Christoffersen, B., Calvet, J. C., da Costa, A. C. L., Ferreira, L. V., and Meir, P.
- Subjects
ATMOSPHERIC models ,DROUGHTS ,LAND use ,CARBON dioxide adsorption - Abstract
While a majority of Global Climate Models project dryer and longer dry seasons over the Amazon under higher CO
2 levels, large uncertainties surround the response of vegetation to persistent droughts in both present-day and future climates. We propose a detailed evaluation of the ability of the ISBACC Land Surface Model to capture drought effects on both water and carbon budgets, comparing fluxes and stocks at two recent Through Fall Exclusion (TFE) experiments performed in the Amazon. We also explore the model sensitivity to different Water Stress Function (WSF) and to an idealized increase in CO2 concentration and/or temperature. In spite of a reasonable soil moisture simulation, ISBACC struggles to correctly simulate the vegetation response to TFE whose amplitude and timing is highly sensitive to the WSF. Under higher CO2 concentration, the increased Water Use Efficiency (WUE) mitigates the ISBACC 's sensitivity to drought. While one of the proposed WSF formulation improves the response of most ISBACC fluxes, except respiration, a parameterization of drought-induced tree mortality is missing for an accurate estimate of the vegetation response. Also, a better mechanistic understanding of the forest responses to drought under a warmer climate and higher CO2 concentration is clearly needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2014
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