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In research on tourism and protected natural areas, two tendencies are evident: one shows tourism as an element that contributes to local welfare and socio-economic development, while the other links tourism in these areas to excessively restrictive regulations that hinder tourist activity and thus rural development. This work contributes to these investigations and sets out the objective of determining the relationship between protected natural areas, nature tourism and its impact as a backbone for rural development. To this end, the protected areas of the region of Andalusia (Spain) are analysed, applying statistical techniques of Multivariate Analysis for the study. Tourism, employment and socio-economic dynamism, tourism efficiency, the quality of natural resources, territorial promotion and investment activities and tourism resources are identified as factors that characterise the regional protected natural areas. These factors have a positive impact on 75% of the territory, which shows that these areas are real assets for rural and local development in the region. Tourism as an activity benefits from the resources and values of these areas, contributing to the territorial development of rural areas in need of revitalisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the work, the time series "tourists were visiting Andalusia" is modeled, a variable that has a strong seasonal component. The forecasting capacity of three different models is considered and analyzed, applying different modeling methodologies (Box-Jenkins, Holt-Winters and combined methods). The results obtained from the predictions are compared with the real values of the tourism series, assessing the good forecasting capacity of the three methodologies used. ItisverifiedthattheclassicHolt-Wintersprocedureistheonethatoffersthebestpredictiveresults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]