Search

The Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf buttresses a significant portion of Thwaites Glacier through contact with a pinning point 40 km offshore of the present grounding line. Predicting future rates of Thwaites Glacier's contribution to sea-level rise depends on the evolution of this pinning point and the resultant change in the ice-shelf stress field since the breakup of the Thwaites Western Glacier Tongue in 2009. Here we use Landsat-8 feature tracking of ice velocity in combination with ice-sheet model perturbation experiments to show how past changes in flow velocity have been governed in large part by changes in lateral shear and pinning point interactions with the Thwaites Western Glacier Tongue. We then use recent satellite altimetry data from ICESat-2 to show that Thwaites Glacier's grounding line has continued to retreat rapidly; in particular, the grounded area of the pinning point is greatly reduced from earlier mappings in 2014, and grounded ice elevations are continuing to decrease. This loss has created two pinned areas with ice flow now funneled between them. If current rates of surface lowering persist, the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf will unpin from the seafloor in less than a decade, despite our finding from airborne radar data that the seafloor underneath the pinning point is about 200 m shallower than previously reported. Advection of relatively thin and mechanically damaged ice onto the remaining portions of the pinning point and feedback mechanisms involving basal melting may further accelerate the unpinning. As a result, ice discharge will likely increase up to 10 % along a 45 km stretch of the grounding line that is currently buttressed by the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) is an essential tool for detecting ice-sheet motion near Antarctica's oceanic margin. These space-borne measurements have been used extensively in the past to map the location and retreat of ice-shelf grounding lines as an indicator for the onset of marine ice-sheet instability and to calculate the mass balance of ice sheets and individual catchments. The main difficulty in interpreting DInSAR is that images originate from a combination of several SAR images and do not indicate instantaneous ice deflection at the times of satellite data acquisitions. Here, we combine the sub-centimetre accuracy and spatial benefits of DInSAR with the temporal benefits of tide models to infer the spatio-temporal dynamics of ice–ocean interaction during the times of satellite overpasses. We demonstrate the potential of this synergy with TerraSAR-X data from the almost-stagnant southern McMurdo Ice Shelf (SMIS). We then validate our algorithm with GPS data from the fast-flowing Darwin Glacier, draining the Antarctic Plateau through the Transantarctic Mountains into the Ross Sea. We are able to reconstruct DInSAR-derived vertical displacements to 7 mm mean absolute residual error and generally improve traditional tide-model output by up to 39 % from 10.8 to 6.7 cm RMSE against GPS data from areas where ice is in local hydrostatic equilibrium with the ocean and by up to 74 % from 21.4 to 5.6 cm RMSE against GPS data in feature-rich coastal areas where tide models have not been applicable before. Numerical modelling then reveals Young's modulus of E=1.0±0.56 GPa and an ice viscosity of ν=10±3.65 TPa s when finite-element simulations of tidal flexure are matched to 16 d of tiltmeter data, supporting the hypothesis that strain-dependent anisotropy may significantly decrease effective viscosity compared to isotropic polycrystalline ice on large spatial scales. Applications of our method include the following: refining coarsely gridded tide models to resolve small-scale features at the spatial resolution and vertical accuracy of SAR imagery, separating elastic and viscoelastic contributions in the satellite-derived flexure measurement, and gaining information about large-scale ice heterogeneity in Antarctic ice-shelf grounding zones, the missing key to improving current ice-sheet flow models. The reconstruction of the individual components forming DInSAR images has the potential to become a standard remote-sensing method in polar tide modelling. Unlocking the algorithm's full potential to answer multi-disciplinary research questions is desired and demands collaboration within the scientific community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]