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The rapidly changing Arctic has received much media attention in recent years. The planting of a Russian flag underneath the North Pole in August 2007 raised concerns about the future of the region, with some even predicting military confrontation. Some scholars suggest that there is a race on to see who can stake the biggest claim to the continental shelf-and exploit the plentiful hydrocarbon resources under the seabed. For most international lawyers, such an explanation seems far-fetched given that the coastal states have behaved in keeping with the international law of the sea. Contrasting descriptions such as these call for a more nuanced understanding of what is unfolding in the region. This reflective article presents three scenarios describing the types of development that may ensue as coastal states proceed to draw the outer limits of their continental shelves in the Arctic Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]