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Abstract: Climate is continually changing on numerous time scales, driven by a range of factors. In general, longer-lived changes are somewhat larger, but much slower to occur, than shorter-lived changes. Processes linked with continental drift have affected atmospheric circulation, oceanic currents, and the composition of the atmosphere over tens of millions of years. A global cooling trend over the last 60 million years has altered conditions near sea level in the Arctic from ice-free year-round to completely ice covered. Variations in arctic insolation over tens of thousands of years in response to orbital forcing have caused regular cycles of warming and cooling that were roughly half the size of the continental-drift-linked changes. This “glacial-interglacial” cycling was amplified by the reduced greenhouse gases in colder times and by greater surface albedo from more-extensive ice cover. Glacial-interglacial cycling was punctuated by abrupt millennial oscillations, which near the North Atlantic were roughly half as large as the glacial-interglacial cycles, but which were much smaller Arctic-wide and beyond. The current interglaciation, the Holocene, has been influenced by brief cooling events from single volcanic eruptions, slower but longer lasting changes from random fluctuations in the frequency of volcanic eruptions, from weak solar variability, and perhaps by other classes of events. Human-forced climate changes appear similar in size and duration to the fastest natural changes of the past, but future changes may have no natural analog. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Arctic sea-ice extent and volume are declining rapidly. Several studies project that the Arctic Ocean may become seasonally ice-free by the year 2040 or even earlier. Putting this into perspective requires information on the history of Arctic sea-ice conditions through the geologic past. This information can be provided by proxy records from the Arctic Ocean floor and from the surrounding coasts. Although existing records are far from complete, they indicate that sea ice became a feature of the Arctic by 47Ma, following a pronounced decline in atmospheric pCO2 after the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Optimum, and consistently covered at least part of the Arctic Ocean for no less than the last 13–14 million years. Ice was apparently most widespread during the last 2–3 million years, in accordance with Earth''s overall cooler climate. Nevertheless, episodes of considerably reduced sea ice or even seasonally ice-free conditions occurred during warmer periods linked to orbital variations. The last low-ice event related to orbital forcing (high insolation) was in the early Holocene, after which the northern high latitudes cooled overall, with some superimposed shorter-term (multidecadal to millennial-scale) and lower-magnitude variability. The current reduction in Arctic ice cover started in the late 19th century, consistent with the rapidly warming climate, and became very pronounced over the last three decades. This ice loss appears to be unmatched over at least the last few thousand years and unexplainable by any of the known natural variabilities. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Arctic amplification, the observation that surface air temperature changes in the Arctic exceed those of the Northern Hemisphere as a whole, is a pervasive feature of climate models, and has recently emerged in observational data relative to the warming trend of the past century. The magnitude of Arctic amplification is an important, but poorly constrained variable necessary to estimate global average temperature change over the next century. Here we evaluate the mechanisms responsible for Arctic amplification on Quaternary timescales, and review evidence from four intervals in the past 3 Ma for which sufficient paleoclimate data and model simulations are available to estimate the magnitude of Arctic amplification under climate states both warmer and colder than present. Despite differences in forcings and feedbacks for these reconstructions compared to today, the Arctic temperature change consistently exceeds the Northern Hemisphere average by a factor of 3–4, suggesting that Arctic warming will continue to greatly exceed the global average over the coming century, with concomitant reductions in terrestrial ice masses and, consequently, an increasing rate of sea level rise. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Thirty-eight new cosmogenic (10Be) exposure ages from the Scoresby Sund region of east Greenland indicate that prominent moraine sets deposited by mountain glaciers date from 780 to 310yr, approximately during the Little Ice Age, from 11 660 to 10 630yr, at the end of the Younger Dryas cold interval or during Preboreal time, and from 13 010 to 11 630yr, during lateglacial time. Equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) interpreted from lateglacial to Early Holocene moraines indicate summertime cooling between ∼3.9 and 6.6°C relative to today''s value, much less than the extreme Younger Dryas cooling registered by Greenland ice cores (mean-annual temperatures of ∼15°C colder than today''s value). This apparent discrepancy between paleotemperature records supports the contention that Younger Dryas cooling was primarily a wintertime phenomenon. 10Be ages of lateglacial and Holocene moraines show that mountain glaciers during the Little Ice Age were more extensive than at any other time since the Early Holocene Epoch. In addition, 10Be ages of lateglacial moraines show extensive reworking of boulders with cosmogenic nuclides inherited from prior periods of exposure, consistent with our geomorphic observations and cosmogenic-exposure dating studies in other Arctic regions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Palaeoclimatic data document a sensitive climate system subject to large and perhaps difficult-to-predict abrupt changes. These data suggest that neither the sensitivity nor the variability of the climate are fully captured in some climate-change projections, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers. Because larger, faster and less-expected climate changes can cause more problems for economies and ecosystems, the palaeoclimatic data suggest the hypothesis that the future may be more challenging than anticipated in ongoing policy making. Large changes have occurred repeatedly with little net forcing. Increasing carbon dioxide concentration appears to have globalized deglacial warming, with climate sensitivity near the upper end of values from general circulation models (GCMs) used to project human-enhanced greenhouse warming; data from the warm Cretaceous period suggest a similarly high climate sensitivity to CO(2). Abrupt climate changes of the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle occurred during warm as well as cold times, linked especially to changing North Atlantic freshwater fluxes. GCMs typically project greenhouse-gas-induced North Atlantic freshening and circulation changes with notable but not extreme consequences; however, such models often underestimate the magnitude, speed or extent of past changes. Targeted research to assess model uncertainties would help to test these hypotheses.