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The physical and chemical changes that accompany permafrost thaw directly influence the microbial communities that mediate the decomposition of formerly frozen organic matter, leading to uncertainty in permafrost-climate feedbacks. Although changes to microbial metabolism and community structure are documented following thaw, the generality of post-thaw assembly patterns across permafrost soils of the world remains uncertain, limiting our ability to predict biogeochemistry and microbial community responses to climate change. Based on our review of the Arctic microbiome, permafrost microbiology, and community ecology, we propose that Assembly Theory provides a framework to better understand thaw-mediated microbiome changes and the implications for community function and climate feedbacks. This framework posits that the prevalence of deterministic or stochastic processes indicates whether the community is well-suited to thrive in changing environmental conditions. We predict that on a short timescale and following high-disturbance thaw (e.g., thermokarst), stochasticity dominates post-thaw microbiome assembly, suggesting that functional predictions will be aided by detailed information about the microbiome. At a longer timescale and lower-intensity disturbance (e.g., active layer deepening), deterministic processes likely dominate, making environmental parameters sufficient for predicting function. We propose that the contribution of stochastic and deterministic processes to post-thaw microbiome assembly depends on the characteristics of the thaw disturbance, as well as characteristics of the microbial community, such as the ecological and phylogenetic breadth of functional guilds, their functional redundancy, and biotic interactions. These propagate across space and time, potentially providing a means for predicting the microbial forcing of greenhouse gas feedbacks to global climate change., (© 2022 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.)

Northern peatlands typically develop through succession from fens dominated by the moss family Amblystegiaceae to bogs dominated by the moss genus Sphagnum. How the different plants and abiotic environmental conditions provided in Amblystegiaceae and Sphagnum peat shape the respective moss associated microbial communities is unknown. Through a large-scale molecular and biogeochemical study spanning Arctic, sub-Arctic and temperate regions we assessed how the endo- and epiphytic microbial communities of natural northern peatland mosses relate to peatland type (Sphagnum and Amblystegiaceae), location, moss taxa and abiotic environmental variables. Microbial diversity and community structure were distinctly different between Amblystegiaceae and Sphagnum peatlands, and within each of these two peatland types moss taxon explained the largest part of microbial community variation. Sphagnum and Amblystegiaceae shared few (< 1% of all operational taxonomic units (OTUs)) but strikingly abundant (up to 65% of relative abundance) OTUs. This core community overlapped by one third with the Sphagnum-specific core-community. Thus, the most abundant microorganisms in Sphagnum that are also found in all the Sphagnum plants studied, are the same OTUs as those few shared with Amblystegiaceae. Finally, we could confirm that these highly abundant OTUs were endophytes in Sphagnum, but epiphytes on Amblystegiaceae. We conclude that moss taxa and abiotic environmental variables associate with particular microbial communities. While moss taxon was the most influential parameter, hydrology, pH and temperature also had significant effects on the microbial communities. A small though highly abundant core community is shared between Sphagnum and Amblystegiaceae.