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The areca nut is the primary economic source for some farmers in southeast Asia. However, the emergence of areca yellow leaf disease (YLD) has seriously reduced the annual production of areca nuts. There is an urgent need for an effective method to monitor the severity of areca yellow leaf disease (SAYD). This study selected an areca orchard with a high incidence of areca YLD as the study area. An unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was used to acquire multispectral and thermal infrared data from the experimental area. The ReliefF algorithm was selected as the feature selection algorithm and ten selected vegetation indices were used as the feature variables to build six machine-learning classification models. The experimental results showed that the combination of ReliefF and the Random Forest algorithm achieved the highest accuracy in the prediction of SAYD. Compared to manually annotated true values, the R2 value, root mean square error, and mean absolute percentage error reached 0.955, 0.049, and 1.958%, respectively. The Pearson correlation coefficient between SAYD and areca canopy temperature (CT) was 0.753 (p value < 0.001). The experimental region was partitioned, and a nonlinear fit was performed using CT versus SAYD. Cross-validation was performed on different regions, and the results showed that the R2 value between the predicted result of SAYD by the CT and actual value reached 0.723. This study proposes a high-precision SAYD prediction method and demonstrates the correlation between the CT and SAYD. The results and methods can also provide new research insights and technical tools for botanical researchers and areca practitioners, and have the potential to be extended to more plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]