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• Derived conditions for geomechanical stability of large-diameter deep disposal boreholes. • Numerical code validated with experiments on shale. • Effects of pre-existing cross-borehole fractures on borehole stability derived from 3D models. • Casing requirement for borehole stability derived from analytical solution. Large diameter boreholes drilled to a depth of 1000–2000 m are currently investigated in Australia as a potential solution for waste emplacement and long-term containment for long-lived intermediate-level radioactive waste (ILW). Different potentially suitable types of host rocks are considered, including granite, shale and salt. This study is aimed at assessing the risk of borehole instability for a large diameter deep borehole in shale. The investigation is conducted with numerical simulations using the CSIRO-developed modelling tools FRACOD and FRCAOD3D, and the commercial code Irazu. Previous laboratory experiments on boreholes in deep shale reported in literatures have been used as validation tests of the numerical models. Under hydrostatic stresses, the FRACOD model showed extensive shear-dominated "log-spiral" fractures around a borehole in shale which is similar to the laboratory testings reported in literatures. Subsequently, 2D and 3D numerical models representing a 0.7-m diameter vertical borehole drilled to the depths of 1000 m and 2000 m have been used. "Strong" and "weak" shales are simulated. The strong and weak shales represent the higher and lower ends of the shale strength reported in literature, respectively. Results showed that a "strong" shale exhibited only small borehole breakouts at the depth of 2000 m. The "weak" shale showed large breakouts (>1.5 m) at depths of 1000 m and 2000 m caused by extensive shear fracturing. In the scenario where a pre-existing 3D fracture crosscuts the borehole, the existing fracture may propagate deeper into the rock formation depending on its orientation and on the in situ stress magnitudes. Predictions based on analytical solutions indicate a 0.02-m and 0.04-m thick casing could prevent severe failure of rock mass at 1000 and 2000 m depths, respectively. Insights from model-based investigations of borehole breakouts are critical during the site selection of rocks with suitable geomechanical properties for waste disposal and for optimising the design of large-diameter boreholes for drilling, waste emplacement and long-term safety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]