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Background: Previous research has raised substantial concerns regarding the validity of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD) codes (ICD-10 I05–I09) for rheumatic heart disease (RHD) due to likely misclassification of non-rheumatic valvular disease (non-rheumatic VHD) as RHD. There is currently no validated, quantitative approach for reliable case ascertainment of RHD in administrative hospital data. Methods: A comprehensive dataset of validated Australian RHD cases was compiled and linked to inpatient hospital records with an RHD ICD code (2000– 2018, n=7555). A prediction model was developed based on a generalized linear mixed model structure considering an extensive range of demographic and clinical variables. It was validated internally using randomly selected cross-validation samples and externally. Conditional optimal probability cutpoints were calculated, maximising discrimination separately for high-risk versus low-risk populations. Results: The proposed model reduced the false-positive rate (FPR) from acute rheumatic fever (ARF) cases misclassified as RHD from 0.59 to 0.27; similarly for non-rheumatic VHD from 0.77 to 0.22. Overall, the model achieved strong discriminant capacity (AUC: 0.93) and maintained a similar robust performance during external validation (AUC: 0.88). It can also be used when only basic demographic and diagnosis data are available. Conclusion: This paper is the first to show that not only misclassification of non-rheumatic VHD but also of ARF as RHD yields substantial FPRs. Both sources of bias can be successfully addressed with the proposed model which provides an effective solution for reliable RHD case ascertainment from hospital data for epidemiological disease monitoring and policy evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective This study aims to describe the pattern and trends in acute rheumatic fever (ARF)/rheumatic heart disease (RHD)-related hospitalisations and costs for Australians aged <65 years. Methods This retrospective linked data study measured trends in hospitalisations and costs for ARF, RHD and complications of ARF/RHD in Northern Territory, South Australia, Western Australia, Queensland and New South Wales between 1 July 2012 and 30 June 2017. Persons with ARF/RHD were identified from RHD registers and/or hospital records. Results Over the 5-year study period, 791 children, aged <16years (86.3% Indigenous), and 2761 adults, aged 16-64years (44.8% Indigenous), were hospitalised for ARF, RHD or associated complications. On average there were 296 paediatric admissions per year, increasing 6.1% annually (95% CI: 2.4-9.6%, P =0.001) and 1442 adult admissions per year, increasing 1.7% annually (95% CI: 0.1-3.4%, P =0.03). Total 5-year costs were AU$130.6m (AU$17.6m paediatric, AU$113.0m adult). Paediatric costs were mostly for ARF-related admissions whereas adult costs mostly involved valvular surgery. Emergency admissions and air ambulance transfers were common, particularly for non-metropolitan residents. Conclusions Successful ARF/RHD prevention would deliver significant hospital cost savings. Investment in primary and specialist health care in regional areas may reduce emergency admissions and regional transfers, further reducing hospital burden.

Group A Streptococcus (Strep A) skin infections (impetigo) can contribute to the development of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD). This is of particular concern for Indigenous residents of remote communities, where rates of ARF and RHD are much higher than their urban and non-Indigenous counterparts. There are three main potential Strep A transmission pathways: skin to skin, surface to skin, and transmission through the air (via droplets or aerosols). Despite a lack of scientific certainty, the physical environment may be modified to prevent Strep A transmission through environmental health initiatives in the home, identifying a strong role for housing. This research sought to provide an outline of identified household-level environmental health initiatives to reduce or interrupt Strep A transmission along each of these pathways. The identified initiatives addressed the ability to wash bodies and clothes, to increase social distancing through improving the livability of yard spaces, and to increase ventilation in the home. To assist with future pilots and evaluation, an interactive costing tool was developed against each of these initiatives. If introduced and evaluated to be effective, the environmental health initiatives are likely to also interrupt other hygiene-related infections.

■The RHD Endgame Strategy: the blueprint to eliminate rheumatic heart disease in Australia by 2031 (the Endgame Strategy) is the blueprint to eliminate rheumatic heart disease (RHD) in Australia by 2031. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people live with one of the highest per capita burdens of RHD in the world. ■The Endgame Strategy synthesises information compiled across the 5-year lifespan of the End Rheumatic Heart Disease Centre of Research Excellence (END RHD CRE). Data and results from priority research projects across several disciplines of research complemented literature reviews, systematic reviews and narrative reviews. Further, the experiences of those working in acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and RHD control and those living with RHD to provide the technical evidence for eliminating RHD in Australia were included. ■The lived experience of RHD is a critical factor in health outcomes. All future strategies to address ARF and RHD must prioritise Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people's knowledge, perspectives and experiences and develop co-designed approaches to RHD elimination. The environmental, economic, social and political context of RHD in Australia is inexorably linked to ending the disease. ■Statistical modelling undertaken in 2019 looked at the economic and health impacts of implementing an indicative strategy to eliminate RHD by 2031. Beginning in 2019, the strategy would include: reducing household crowding, improving hygiene infrastructure, strengthening primary health care and improving secondary prophylaxis. It was estimated that the strategy would prevent 663 deaths and save the health care system $188 million. ■The Endgame Strategy provides the evidence for a new approach to RHD elimination. It proposes an implementation framework of five priority action areas. These focus on strategies to prevent new cases of ARF and RHD early in the causal pathway from Streptococcus pyogenes exposure to ARF, and strategies that address the critical systems and structural changes needed to support a comprehensive RHD elimination strategy., (& 2020 AMPCo Pty Ltd.)

Background In 2018, the World Health Organization prioritized control of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD), including disease surveillance. We developed strategies for estimating contemporary ARF/RHD incidence and prevalence in Australia (2015-2017) by age group, sex, and region for Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians based on innovative, direct methods. Methods and Results This population-based study used linked administrative data from 5 Australian jurisdictions. A cohort of ARF (age <45 years) and RHD cases (<55 years) were sourced from jurisdictional ARF/RHD registers, surgical registries, and inpatient data. We developed robust methods for epidemiologic case ascertainment for ARF/RHD. We calculated age-specific and age-standardized incidence and prevalence. Age-standardized rate and prevalence ratios compared disease burden between demographic subgroups. Of 1425 ARF episodes, 72.1% were first-ever, 88.8% in Indigenous people and 78.6% were aged <25 years. The age-standardized ARF first-ever rates were 71.9 and 0.60/100 000 for Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, respectively (age-standardized rate ratio=124.1; 95% CI, 105.2-146.3). The 2017 Global Burden of Disease RHD prevalent counts for Australia (<55 years) underestimate the burden (1518 versus 6156 Australia-wide extrapolated from our study). The Indigenous age-standardized RHD prevalence (666.3/100 000) was 61.4 times higher (95% CI, 59.3-63.5) than non-Indigenous (10.9/100 000). Female RHD prevalence was double that in males. Regions in northern Australia had the highest rates. Conclusions This study provides the most accurate estimates to date of Australian ARF and RHD rates. The high Indigenous burden necessitates urgent government action. Findings suggest RHD may be underestimated in many high-resource settings. The linked data methods outlined here have potential for global applicability.

Adolescent and parent reports of adolescent mental health problems often correlate poorly, and understanding this discrepancy has clinical importance. Yet contextual factors have only been inconsistently explained. At the 14- and 17-year follow-ups of the Western Australian Pregnancy Cohort (Raine) Study, 1,596 parent-child dyads completed the parent-reported Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL) and the adolescent-rated Youth Self-Report (YSR). Maternal, family, adolescent, and parent factors were examined as potential predictors of discrepancies. When adolescent YSR scores were in the clinical range but parents' CBCL ratings were not, adolescents were more likely to report alcohol intoxication in the last 6 months, illicit drug use, low school motivation, and depression. When parents reported externalizing behaviour in the clinical range but adolescents did not, the characteristics associated with this were a younger maternal age, receiving social security benefit, stress related to parenting, depression, and poor family functioning. These new results will inform clinical management and research with adolescents who present with behavioural disorders. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? We know that adolescent and parent reports of adolescent mental health problems often correlate poorly, but little is known about which contextual factors lead to disagreement. Understanding the factors that influence agreement is clinically relevant for predicting and identifying externalizing behavioural disorders. This is a large-scale study with the ability to assess the impact of numerous psychosocial factors on instrument disagreement. What the present study adds We found that substance use, depression and low school motivation impacted on discrepancy in externalizing behaviour scores for 14-year-old male adolescents and their parents. Parental depression, stress, low family income, and family dysfunction also led to a higher likelihood of discrepancy in scores., (© 2018 The British Psychological Society.)

Background: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains a disease of international importance, yet little has been published about disease progression in a contemporary patient cohort. Multi-state models provide a well-established method of estimating rates of transition between disease states, and can be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of potential interventions. We aimed to create a multi-state model for RHD progression using serial clinical data from a cohort of Australian patients., Methods and Results: The Northern Territory RHD register was used to identify all Indigenous residents diagnosed with RHD between the ages of 5 and 24 years in the time period 1999-2012. Disease severity over time, surgeries, and deaths were evaluated for 591 patients. Of 96 (16.2%) patients with severe RHD at diagnosis, 50% had proceeded to valve surgery by 2 years, and 10% were dead within 6 years. Of those diagnosed with moderate RHD, there was a similar chance of disease regression or progression over time. Patients with mild RHD at diagnosis were the most stable, with 64% remaining mild after 10 years; however, 11.4% progressed to severe RHD and half of these required surgery., Conclusions: The prognosis of young Indigenous Australians diagnosed with severe RHD is bleak; interventions must focus on earlier detection and treatment if the observed natural history is to be improved. This multi-state model can be used to predict the effect of different interventions on disease progression and the associated costs., (© 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.)

Background: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains a leading cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in children and young adults in disadvantaged populations. The emergence of echocardiographic screening provides the opportunity for early disease detection and intervention. Using our own multistate model of RHD progression derived from Australian RHD register data, we performed a cost-utility analysis of echocardiographic screening in indigenous Australian children, with the dual aims of informing policy decisions in Australia and providing a model that could be adapted in other countries., Methods and Results: We simulated the outcomes of 2 screening strategies, assuming that RHD could be detected 1, 2, or 3 years earlier by screening. Outcomes included reductions in heart failure, surgery, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years, and corresponding costs. Only a strategy of screening all indigenous 5- to 12-year-olds in half of their communities in alternate years was found to be cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio less than AU$50 000 per disability-adjusted life-year averted), assuming that RHD can be detected at least 2 years earlier by screening; however, this result was sensitive to a number of assumptions. Additional modeling of improved adherence to secondary prophylaxis alone resulted in dramatic reductions in heart failure, surgery, and death; these outcomes improved even further when combined with screening., Conclusions: Echocardiographic screening for RHD is cost-effective in our context, assuming that RHD can be detected ≥2 years earlier by screening. Our model can be adapted to any other setting but will require local data or acceptable assumptions for model parameters., (© 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.)

We hypothesized that triphasic multinutrient supplementation during acute resistance exercise would enhance muscular performance, produce a more favorable anabolic profile, and reduce biochemical markers of muscle damage in strength-trained athletes. Fifteen male strength-trained athletes completed two acute lower-body resistance exercise sessions to fatigue 7 days apart. After a 4-hour fast, participants consumed either a multinutrient supplement (Musashi 1-2-3 Step System, Notting Hill, Australia) (SUPP) or placebo (PLA) beverage preexercise (PRE), during (DUR), and immediately postexercise (IP). Session volume loads were calculated as kilograms × repetitions. Lower-body peak power was measured using unloaded repeated countermovement jumps, and blood samples were collected to assess biochemistry, serum hormones, and muscle damage markers at PRE, DUR, IP, 30 minutes postexercise (P30), and 24 hours postexercise (P24h). The SUPP demonstrated increased glucose concentrations at DUR and IP compared with at PRE (P < .01), whereas PLA demonstrated higher glucose at P30 compared with at PRE (P < .001). Session volume load was higher for SUPP compared with PLA (P < .05). Cortisol increased at DUR, IP, and P30 compared with at PRE in both treatments (P < .05); however, SUPP also displayed lower cortisol at P24h compared with at PRE and PLA (P < .01). The total testosterone response to exercise was higher for PLA compared with SUPP (P < .01); however, total creatine kinase and C-reactive protein responses to exercise were lower for SUPP compared with PLA (P < .05). These data indicate that although triphasic multinutrient supplementation did not produce a more favorable anabolic profile, it improved acute resistance exercise performance while attenuating muscle damage in strength-trained athletes., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)