21 results on '"Gertig, Dorota M."'
Search Results
2. HPV self-sampling and follow-up over two rounds of cervical screening in Australia – the iPap trial.
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Sultana, Farhana, Gertig, Dorota M, English, Dallas R, Simpson, Julie A, Drennan, Kelly T, Wrede, C David, Mullins, Robyn M, Heley, Stella, Saville, Marion, and Brotherton, Julia ML
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PAPILLOMAVIRUS disease diagnosis , *SELF diagnosis , *EVALUATION of medical care , *CONFIDENCE intervals , *PAP test , *MEDICAL screening , *RANDOMIZED controlled trials , *DESCRIPTIVE statistics , *DISEASE prevalence , *STATISTICAL sampling , *PATIENT compliance , *EVALUATION - Abstract
Objectives: Previously, based on 6 months of follow-up, we showed that HPV self-sampling improved participation in cervical screening compared to a reminder letter for Pap testing for never- and under-screened women. Here, we report follow-up and related screening outcomes for women who participated in the initial self-sampling over two screening rounds. Setting: The randomised controlled trial was conducted in Australia. Methods: Never- and under-screened women were randomly allocated to the HPV self-sampling or the reminder for Pap test arm and followed at 6 and 36 months since the kits were first mailed. Results: The first round of HPV self-sampling kits were mailed from May–July 2014 to 12 572 women. After 36 months, 19% of never-screened and 9% of under-screened women returned a kit for HPV testing; 2.7% were HPV 16/18 and 5.8% non-16/18 HPV positive. Compliance with first round follow-up was 84% (95% CI: 77.1–89.5%). Non-compliant and cytology triage negative women were mailed another kit at 12 months. Compliance at 12-month follow-up was 59.3% (49.4 to 68.6%). Of 37 women with a 12-month repeat HPV, 70% were positive. Of women who tested negative for HPV in the first round (n = 1573), 25% attended regular screening in the next round and none had CIN2 + detected. The overall prevalence of CIN2 + was 8.5 per 1000 screened (4.8 to 13.9 per 1000). Conclusion: While self-sampling can successfully engage women, compliance with repeat testing may require monitoring. The clinician-supported self-collection pathway now in use in Australia will likely improve women's engagement with follow-up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
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3. Cervical Abnormalities Are More Common among Indigenous than Other Australian Women: A Retrospective Record-Linkage Study, 2000–2011.
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Whop, Lisa J., Baade, Peter, Garvey, Gail, Cunningham, Joan, Brotherton, Julia M. L., Lokuge, Kamalini, Valery, Patricia C., O’Connell, Dianne L., Canfell, Karen, Diaz, Abbey, Roder, David, Gertig, Dorota M., Moore, Suzanne P., and Condon, John R.
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CERVICAL cancer ,DISEASE incidence ,WOMEN ,DISEASE prevalence ,PAP test - Abstract
Indigenous Australian women have much higher incidence of cervical cancer compared to non-Indigenous women. Despite an organised cervical screening program introduced 25 years ago, a paucity of Indigenous-identified data in Pap Smear Registers remains. Prevalence of cervical abnormalities detected among the screened Indigenous population has not previously been reported. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of population-based linked health records for 1,334,795 female Queensland residents aged 20–69 years who had one or more Pap smears during 2000–2011; from linked hospital records 23,483 were identified as Indigenous. Prevalence was calculated separately for Indigenous and non-Indigenous women, for cytology-detected low-grade (cLGA) and high-grade abnormalities (cHGA), and histologically confirmed high-grade abnormalities (hHGA). Odds ratios (OR) were estimated from logistic regression analysis. In 2010–2011 the prevalence of hHGA among Indigenous women (16.6 per 1000 women screened, 95% confidence interval [CI] 14.6–18.9) was twice that of non-Indigenous women (7.5 per 1000 women screened, CI 7.3–7.7). Adjusted for age, area-level disadvantage and place of residence, Indigenous women had higher prevalence of cLGA (OR 1.4, CI 1.3–1.4), cHGA (OR 2.2, CI 2.1–2.3) and hHGA (OR 2.0, CI 1.9–2.1). Our findings show that Indigenous women recorded on the Pap Smear Register have much higher prevalence for cLGA, cHGA and hHGA compared to non-Indigenous women. The renewed cervical screening program, to be implemented in 2017, offers opportunities to reduce the burden of abnormalities and invasive cancer among Indigenous women and address long-standing data deficiencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2016
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4. Women's views on human papillomavirus self-sampling: focus groups to assess acceptability, invitation letters and a test kit in the Australian setting.
- Author
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Sultana, Farhana, Mullins, Robyn, Murphy, Michael, English, Dallas R., Simpson, Julie A., Drennan, Kelly T., Heley, Stella, Wrede, C. David, Brotherton, Julia M. L., Saville, Marion, and Gertig, Dorota M.
- Subjects
DIAGNOSTIC equipment ,PAPILLOMAVIRUS disease diagnosis ,WOMEN ,SEXUAL health ,MEDICAL screening - Abstract
Unlabelled: Background The study evaluated acceptability, invitation letters and the test kit for a trial of human papillomavirus (HPV) self-sampling among never- and under-screened women in Australia.Methods: Victorian women, 30-69 years, who had never had a Pap test or were overdue for one, participated. Four focus groups including eight to nine participants segmented by age (30-49 and 50-69 years) and screening history (never- and under-screened) were conducted in August 2013. Discussions were recorded and transcribed verbatim and data analysed using thematic content analysis.Results: The response to the concept of HPV self-sampling was positive. Decision-making was largely influenced by the content of a pre-invitation letter. Appealing features of self-sampling were cost (free), convenience (home-based) and anticipated less discomfort (with a swab) than a Pap test. Small kits that fit in mailboxes were preferred over post office parcel collection. The perceived barriers include concerns about test accuracy and lack of confidence that a home-based test would give the same results as a physician administered test. Women wanted information on the timing of receipt of the results and information about the organisation providing the test.Conclusion: HPV self-sampling is a possible alternative for Australian women who are reluctant to have a Pap test and may increase the likelihood of participation in cervical cancer screening if women's concerns about it can be addressed. The findings of this study are relevant for researchers, policymakers and practitioners implementing self-sampling for under-screened women as part of cervical screening programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2015
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5. Rationale and design of the iPap trial: a randomized controlled trial of home-based HPV self-sampling for improving participation in cervical screening by never- and under-screened women in Australia.
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Sultana, Farhana, English, Dallas R., Simpson, Julie A., Brotherton, Julia M. L., Drennan, Kelly, Mullins, Robyn, Heley, Stella, Wrede, C. David, Saville, Marion, and Gertig, Dorota M.
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PAPILLOMAVIRUSES ,WOMEN ,CERVICAL cancer diagnosis ,PAP test ,CYTOLOGY - Abstract
Background: Organized screening based on Pap tests has substantially reduced deaths from cervical cancer in many countries, including Australia. However, the impact of the program depends upon the degree to which women participate. A new method of screening, testing for human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA to detect the virus that causes cervical cancer, has recently become available. Because women can collect their own samples for this test at home, it has the potential to overcome some of the barriers to Pap tests. The iPap trial will evaluate whether mailing an HPV self-sampling kit increases participation by never- and under-screened women within a cervical screening program. Methods/Design: The iPap trial is a parallel randomized controlled, open label, trial. Participants will be Victorian women age 30-69 years, for whom there is either no record on the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry (VCCR) of a Pap test (never-screened) or the last recorded Pap test was between five to fifteen years ago (under-screened). Enrolment information from the Victorian Electoral Commission will be linked to the VCCR to determine the never-screened women. Variables that will be used for record linkage include full name, address and date of birth. Never- and under-screened women will be randomly allocated to either receive an invitation letter with an HPV self-sampling kit or a reminder letter to attend for a Pap test, which is standard practice for women overdue for a test in Victoria. All resources have been focus group tested. The primary outcome will be the proportion of women who participate, by returning an HPV self-sampling kit for women in the self-sampling arm, and notification of a Pap test result to the Registry for women in the Pap test arm at 3 and 6 months after mailout. The most important secondary outcome is the proportion of test-positive women who undergo further investigations at 6 and 12 months after mailout of results. Discussion: The iPap trial will provide strong evidence about whether HPV self-sampling could be used in Australia to improve participation in cervical screening for never-and under-screened women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
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6. URBAN–RURAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MANAGEMENT OF SCREEN-DETECTED INVASIVE BREAST CANCER AND DUCTAL CARCINOMA IN SITU IN VICTORIA.
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Kok, David L., Chang, Jiun-Horng, Erbas, Bircan, Fletcher, Ashley, Kavanagh, Anne M., Henderson, Michael A., and Gertig, Dorota M.
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BREAST cancer ,CANCER treatment ,MEDICAL screening ,MASTECTOMY ,RURAL women ,URBAN women - Abstract
Background: At least one-third of primary breast cancers in Australia are discovered by population-based mammographic screening. The aim of this study was to determine whether there were any differences in the surgical treatment of women diagnosed with breast cancer by BreastScreen Victoria between urban and rural populations and to investigate temporal changes in their pattern of care. Methods: An analysis of women diagnosed with breast cancer (invasive and non-invasive) by BreastScreen Victoria from 1993 to 2000 was conducted. Descriptive analyses of the proportion of women undergoing each surgical treatment type over time were carried out. Logistic regression was used to assess the effect of urban–rural residence on each treatment outcome while accounting for possible confounding factors. Results: Rural women with invasive breast cancer were less likely to undergo breast-conserving surgery (BCS) compared with urban women (odds ratio, 0.42; 95% confidence interval, 0.35–0.50). The same was also true for rural women with ductal carcinoma in situ (odds ratio, 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.29–0.96). This difference was independent of patient and tumour characteristics, including tumour size, surgeon caseload, patient’s age and socioeconomic status. It also persisted over time despite a steady overall increase in use of BCS for both invasive and non-invasive cancers over the study period. Conclusions: Among Victorian women with screen-detected breast cancer, urban women consistently had higher rates of BCS compared with rural women despite increased overall adoption of BCS. Reasons for this disparity are still unclear and warrant further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2006
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7. Does dietary folate intake modify effect of alcohol consumption on breast cancer risk? Prospective cohort study.
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Baglietto, Laura, English, Dallas R., Gertig, Dorota M., Hopper, John L., and Giles, Graham G.
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BREAST cancer research ,ALCOHOL drinking ,FOLIC acid in human nutrition ,DISEASES in women ,ETIOLOGY of diseases ,CANCER in women ,MEDICAL research ,DISEASE risk factors - Abstract
Objective To evaluate the effect of dietary folate intake on the relation between alcohol consumption and breast cancer risk. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Melbourne, Australia. Participants 17 447 Anglo-Australian women resident in Melbourne, aged 40-69 years at recruitment in 1990-4, and followed up until 31 December 2003. Main outcome measure Invasive breast cancers diagnosed during follow-up and ascertained through the Victorian cancer registry. Results 537 invasive breast cancers were diagnosed. Compared with lifetime abstainers, the hazard ratio for breast cancer in women who consumed an average of 40 g or more of alcohol daily at baseline was 1.41 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 2.23). No direct association was found between dietary folate intake and risk of breast cancer, but a high folate intake mitigated the excess risk associated with alcohol. The estimated hazard ratio of an alcohol consumption of 40 g/day or more was 2.00 (1.14 to 3.49) for women with intakes of 200 µg/day of folate and 0.77 (0.33 to 1.80) for 400 µg/day of folate (P = 0.04 for interaction between alcohol and folate). Conclusions An adequate dietary intake of folate might protect against the increased risk of breast cancer associated with alcohol consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2005
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8. A National Surveillance System for Newly Acquired HIV Infection in Australia.
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McDonald, Ann M., Gertig, Dorota M., Crofts, Nick, and Kaldor, John M.
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MEDICAL technology , *MEDICAL screening , *HIV infections , *HIV antibodies , *BLOOD testing , *MEDICAL research - Abstract
Objectives. The purpose fo this study was to describe the establishment fo a national surveillance system for newly acquired human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and present the first 3 years' results. Methods. All new cases of diagnosed HIV infection were reported to the national HIV surveillance center through state and territory health authorities. Information sought on each case included evidence of whether the infection had been newly acquired, defined by the diagnosis of HIV seroconversion illness or by the report fo a negative or indeterminate HIV antibody test result occurring within the 12 months prior to diagnosis fo infection. Results. Of 3602 reported cases of HIV infection in adults and adolescents newly diagnosed in Australia between 1991 and 1993, 11.4% were identified as newly acquired. The majority (85% ) of cases fo newly diagnosed HIV infection occurred among men who reported occurred among men who reported homosexual contact, and 15% of these cases were identified as newly acquired. Average age at diagnosis was 31 years for cases of newly acquired infection and 34 years for other cases. Conclusions. Surveillance for newly acquired HIV infection has been established at a national level in Australia and provides valuable information for planning primary HIV prevention programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 1994
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9. Advancements in the control of genital human papillomavirus infections and related diseases: highlighting Australia's role.
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Garland, Suzanne M., Brotherton, Julia M. L., Fairley, Christopher K., Gertig, Dorota M., and Saville, Marion
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CERVICAL cancer ,GENITAL warts - Abstract
An introduction to topics discussed within the issue is presented, including "Cervical Cancer Vaccine Development," by I. H. Frazer, "What Can Surveillance of Genital Warts Tell Us?," by C. K. Fairley and colleagues, and "Monitoring the Control of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infection and Related Diseases in Australia: Towards a National HPV Surveillance Strategy," by J. M. L. Brotherton and colleagues.
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- 2010
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10. HPV vaccine impact in Australian women: ready for an HPV-based screening program.
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Brotherton, Julia M. L., Gertig, Dorota M., May, Cathryn, Chappell, Genevieve, Saville, Marion, and Brotherton, Julia Ml
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HUMAN papillomavirus vaccines ,WOMEN ,PAPILLOMAVIRUS disease diagnosis ,WOMEN'S health ,PREVENTION of diseases in women - Abstract
The article reports on the implications of the human papillomavirus (HPV) on Australian women. The topics discussed include the effectiveness of the HPV vaccination in preparing women for the HPV screening program, the years when the HPV vaccination program are implemented, and the age bracket of women who received the vaccination program.
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- 2016
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11. High-grade cervical abnormalities and cervical cancer in women following a negative Pap smear with and without an endocervical component: a cohort study with 10 years of follow-up.
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Sultana F, English DR, Simpson JA, Canfell K, Gertig DM, and Saville M
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- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Australia epidemiology, Cohort Studies, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Mass Screening, Middle Aged, Retrospective Studies, Risk Factors, Uterine Cervical Neoplasms pathology, Young Adult, Uterine Cervical Dysplasia diagnosis, Uterine Cervical Dysplasia epidemiology, Cervix Uteri abnormalities, Papanicolaou Test, Uterine Cervical Neoplasms epidemiology, Vaginal Smears, Uterine Cervical Dysplasia pathology
- Abstract
The proportion of Pap smears containing an endocervical component (ECC) has been declining in Australia. Given that ECC negative (ECC-) smears may be associated with reduced sensitivity, we undertook a retrospective cohort study to estimate rates of histologically confirmed high-grade cervical abnormality (HGA) and cancer in women with negative Pap smears with and without an ECC. Women 18-69 years with at least two Pap smears between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2010 with the first smear in that period (index smear) showing no abnormality were eligible. Follow-up ended at date of the first abnormal smear, date of histological diagnosis, date of hysterectomy, date of death, or 31 December 2010, whichever came first. ECC status was treated as a time varying exposure. Follow-up was split at each smear after the index smear. Poisson regression was used to estimate adjusted incidence rates and incidence rate ratios (IRR) by ECC status. The incidence rate of histologically confirmed HGA was significantly lower following ECC- smears than after ECC+ smears (adjusted IRR: 0.69, 95%Confidence Interval (CI) 0.62-0.77), particularly at older ages (interaction between ECC status and age, p = 0.001). In contrast, the overall rate of invasive cancer was not significantly different after ECC- than after ECC+ smears (IRR: 1.27, 95%CI 0.90-1.77). In conclusion, women had a lower rate of confirmed HGA and no significant increase in the rate of invasive cervical cancer following ECC- smears. This study does not support differential (accelerated) follow-up in women with a negative smear without an endocervical component., (© 2014 UICC.)
- Published
- 2014
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12. Cervical screening rates for women vaccinated against human papillomavirus.
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Budd AC, Brotherton JM, Gertig DM, Chau T, Drennan KT, and Saville M
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- Adult, Age Factors, Australia epidemiology, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Humans, Registries, Young Adult, Mass Screening statistics & numerical data, Papanicolaou Test statistics & numerical data, Papillomavirus Vaccines, Vaginal Smears statistics & numerical data
- Abstract
Objective: To compare cervical screening rates for women vaccinated with a quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine with those for unvaccinated women, to address concerns that vaccinated women may not be participating in cervical screening., Design, Setting and Participants: Cross-sectional analysis of linked data from the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry and the National HPV Vaccination Program Register for 20-29-year-old women in Victoria, Australia, for the period 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2011., Main Outcome Measures: Screening participation rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated women., Results: Participation in cervical screening during the 2-year period 2010-2011 was significantly lower in 20-24-year-old vaccinated women compared with unvaccinated women of the same age (37.6% v 47.7%, a 10.1 percentage point difference [95% CI, 9.7-10.6]; P < 0.001) and significantly lower in 25-29-year-old vaccinated women compared with unvaccinated women of the same age (45.2% v 58.7%, a 13.5 percentage point difference [95% CI, 13.1%-13.9%]; P < 0.001). Similar results were observed for participation during the 3-year period 2009-2011., Conclusions: Despite education messages provided to young women, our results suggest that vaccinated women are being screened at lower rates than unvaccinated women in Australia. While some degree of undermatching of women in the study may have occurred, this cannot wholly explain our findings. Effective implementation of Individual Healthcare Identifiers to health records, including registry records, is needed to prevent potential undermatching of individuals in future linkage studies. In the meantime, efforts to increase participation in cervical screening by vaccinated women are needed.
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- 2014
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13. Measuring effectiveness of the cervical cancer vaccine in an Australian setting (the VACCINE study).
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Young EJ, Tabrizi SN, Brotherton JM, Wark JD, Pyman J, Saville M, Wrede CD, Jayasinghe Y, Tan J, Gertig DM, Pitts M, and Garland SM
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- Adolescent, Adult, Australia, Female, Genotype, Humans, Young Adult, Papillomaviridae genetics, Papillomavirus Infections prevention & control, Papillomavirus Vaccines therapeutic use, Uterine Cervical Neoplasms prevention & control, Uterine Cervical Neoplasms virology, Uterine Cervical Dysplasia prevention & control, Uterine Cervical Dysplasia virology
- Abstract
Background: The quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine has been provided in Australia through the National Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Program since April 2007. National registry data demonstrates good coverage of the vaccine, with 73% of school-aged girls having received all three doses. To evaluate the effectiveness of the program, we propose a two-pronged approach. In one (sub study A), the prevalence of the vaccine-targeted human papillomavirus genotypes in a population cohort is being estimated, and will be analysed in relation to vaccination status, cervical cytology screening status, demographic, social, behavioural, medical and clinical factors. In sub study B, the distribution of human papillomavirus genotypes detected in high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplastic lesions from vaccine eligible women is being assessed., Methods/design: Sub Study A involves the recruitment of 1569 women aged 18-25, residing in Victoria, Australia, through Facebook advertising. Women who are sexually active are being asked to provide a self-collected vaginal swab, collected at home and posted into the study centre, where human papillomavirus DNA detection and genotyping is performed. Participants also complete an online questionnaire regarding sexual history, experience with, knowledge of, and attitudes towards human papillomavirus, the human papillomavirus vaccine, and cervical screening.Sub Study B will involve the collection of 500 cervical biopsies, positively identified as containing high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplastic lesions and/or adenocarcinoma in situ. Five serial sections are being taken from each case: sections 1 and 5 are being assessed to confirm the presence of the high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplastic lesions or adenocarcinoma in situ; human papillomavirus genotyping is performed on sections 2 and 3; single lesions are excised from section 4 using laser capture microdissection to specifically define causality of a human papillomavirus genotyping of each specific lesion., Discussion: Australia is well placed to gain a clear and early insight into the effectiveness of the human papillomavirus vaccine in reducing the prevalence of human papillomavirus infection in young women, and any subsequent reduction in the prevalence of pre-cancerous cervical lesions, specifically high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia lesions, particularly of vaccine related types. The findings of a successful population based human papillomavirus program will have wide-reaching translational benefits across the globe.
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- 2013
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14. Serous ovarian, fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancers: a comparative epidemiological analysis.
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Jordan SJ, Green AC, Whiteman DC, Moore SP, Bain CJ, Gertig DM, and Webb PM
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- Aged, Australia epidemiology, Case-Control Studies, Contraceptives, Oral, Hormonal administration & dosage, Female, Humans, Life Style, Logistic Models, Middle Aged, Neoplasm Invasiveness, Obesity complications, Odds Ratio, Ovarian Neoplasms pathology, Reproductive History, Risk Factors, Surveys and Questionnaires, Cystadenocarcinoma, Serous epidemiology, Fallopian Tube Neoplasms epidemiology, Ovarian Neoplasms epidemiology, Peritoneal Neoplasms epidemiology
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Invasive serous cancers are diagnosed in the ovary, fallopian tube and peritoneum. It is widely believed that these are variants of the same malignancy but little is known about fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancers. A comparison of risk factors for these tumor types may shed light on common or distinct aetiological pathways involved in these types of cancer. We investigated risk factors for the three cancers using data from a large Australian population-based case-control study. We included women with incident invasive serous ovarian (n = 627), primary peritoneal (n = 129) and fallopian tube (n = 45) cancer and 1,508 control women. Participants completed a comprehensive reproductive and lifestyle questionnaire. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Hormonal contraceptive use was inversely related to risk of all three cancers. Parity and breast-feeding were also inversely related to risk of serous ovarian and fallopian tube cancer. In contrast, parous women had an increased risk of peritoneal cancer (OR = 1.8, 95%CI 0.8-3.9), and increasing parity did not lower risk. There was also no association between breast-feeding and peritoneal cancer. However, obesity was associated with a doubling of risk for peritoneal cancer alone (OR = 2.1, 95%CI = 1.3-3.4). The strikingly similar patterns of risk for serous ovarian and fallopian tube cancers and the somewhat different results for primary peritoneal cancer suggest that peritoneal cancers may develop along a different pathway. These results also call into question the role of the physical effects of ovulation in the development of serous ovarian cancer., ((c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)
- Published
- 2008
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15. Forecasting age-specific breast cancer mortality using functional data models.
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Erbas B, Hyndman RJ, and Gertig DM
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- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Australia epidemiology, Breast Neoplasms epidemiology, Female, Humans, Incidence, Middle Aged, Breast Neoplasms mortality, Data Interpretation, Statistical, Forecasting methods, Models, Statistical
- Abstract
Accurate estimates of future age-specific incidence and mortality are critical for allocation of resources to breast cancer control programmes and evaluation of screening programmes. The purpose of this study is to apply functional data analysis techniques to model age-specific breast cancer mortality time trends, and forecast entire age-specific mortality functions using a state-space approach. We use annual unadjusted breast cancer mortality rates in Australia, from 1921 to 2001 in 5 year age groups (45 to 85+). We use functional data analysis techniques where mortality and incidence are modelled as curves with age as a functional covariate varying by time. Data are smoothed using non-parametric smoothing methods then decomposed (using principal components analysis) to estimate basis functions that represent the functional curve. Period effects from the fitted coefficients are forecast then multiplied by the basis functions, resulting in a forecast mortality curve with prediction intervals. To forecast, we adopt a state-space approach and an automatic modelling framework for selecting among exponential smoothing methods.Overall, breast cancer mortality rates in Australia remained relatively stable from 1960 to the late 1990s, but have declined over the last few years. A set of four basis functions minimized the mean integrated squared forecasting error and account for 99.3 per cent of variation around the mean mortality curve. Twenty year forecasts suggest a continuing decline, but at a slower rate, and stabilizing beyond 2010. Forecasts show a decline in all age groups with the greatest decline in older women. The proposed methods have the potential to incorporate important covariates such as hormone replacement therapy and interventions to represent mammographic screening. This would be particularly useful for evaluating the impact of screening on mortality and incidence from breast cancer., (Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)
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- 2007
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16. Body size and composition and risk of rectal cancer (Australia).
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MacInnis RJ, English DR, Haydon AM, Hopper JL, Gertig DM, and Giles GG
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- Adiposity, Aged, Australia epidemiology, Case-Control Studies, Demography, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Neoplasm Staging, Proportional Hazards Models, Registries, Risk Factors, Waist-Hip Ratio, Body Composition, Body Size, Rectal Neoplasms epidemiology
- Abstract
Background: Although body mass index has been shown to be associated with colon cancer, studies of rectal cancer risk have generally reported no association. The relationship between rectal cancer risk and central adiposity, overall fat mass, and fat-free mass is unknown., Methods: In a prospective cohort study of people aged 27-75 years, body measurements were taken directly; fat mass and fat-free mass being estimated by bioelectrical impedance analysis and central adiposity by waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio. Among 16,867 men and 24,247 women followed on average for 10.3 years, 229 rectal cancers were ascertained via the population cancer registry., Results: When comparing the highest tertile with the lowest tertile, weight (hazard ratio = 1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-2.0), waist circumference (hazard ratio = 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-1.9), fat mass (hazard ratio = 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-2.0) and percent fat (hazard ratio = 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-2.0) were positively associated with rectal cancer risk. There was no evidence that risk differed by sex for any of the anthropometric measures., Conclusions: Waist circumference and fat mass may be weakly related to risk of rectal cancer.
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- 2006
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17. Body size and composition and colon cancer risk in women.
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MacInnis RJ, English DR, Hopper JL, Gertig DM, Haydon AM, and Giles GG
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- Abdominal Fat physiology, Adult, Aged, Australia epidemiology, Colonic Neoplasms epidemiology, Colonic Neoplasms pathology, Female, Greece ethnology, Humans, Italy ethnology, Middle Aged, Neoplasm Staging, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Registries statistics & numerical data, Surveys and Questionnaires, Waist-Hip Ratio, Body Composition physiology, Body Size physiology, Colonic Neoplasms physiopathology
- Abstract
Studies of colon cancer risk in males have reported strong positive associations with obesity, particularly with central adiposity. The association has been weaker and less consistent for women. In a prospective cohort study of women, body measurements were taken directly; fat mass and fat-free mass being estimated by bioelectrical impedance analysis and central adiposity by waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). Among 24,072 women followed on average for 10.4 years, 212 colon cancers were ascertained via the population cancer registry. We reviewed medical records of all cases and classified them according to anatomic site and stage. The central adiposity measures of WHR (hazard ratio per 0.1 unit increase = 1.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.58) and waist circumference (hazard ratio per 10 cm increase = 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.28) were positively associated with colon cancer risk. There was little or no association between other anthropometric measures and risk of colon cancer. There was some evidence that the associations were stronger for proximal tumors, but no evidence that risk differed by stage for any of the anthropometric measures. Central adiposity appears to be associated with colon cancer risk in women.
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- 2006
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18. The AIB1 glutamine repeat polymorphism is not associated with risk of breast cancer before age 40 years in Australian women.
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Montgomery KG, Chang JH, Gertig DM, Dite GS, McCredie MR, Giles GG, Southey MC, Hopper JL, and Campbell IG
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- Acetyltransferases physiology, Adult, Age of Onset, Australia, Breast Neoplasms etiology, Breast Neoplasms pathology, Case-Control Studies, Female, Genes, BRCA1, Genes, BRCA2, Genotype, Histone Acetyltransferases, Humans, Nuclear Receptor Coactivator 3, Oncogene Proteins physiology, Polymorphism, Genetic, Risk Factors, Trans-Activators physiology, Transcription, Genetic, Trinucleotide Repeats, Acetyltransferases genetics, Breast Neoplasms genetics, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Oncogene Proteins genetics, Trans-Activators genetics
- Abstract
Introduction: AIB1, located at 20q12, is a member of the steroid hormone coactivator family. It contains a glutamine repeat (CAG/CAA) polymorphism at its carboxyl-terminal region that may alter the transcriptional activation of the receptor and affect susceptibility to breast cancer through altered sensitivity to hormones., Methods: We evaluated this repeat polymorphism in the context of early-onset disease by conducting a case-control study of 432 Australian women diagnosed with breast cancer before the age of 40 years and 393 population-based control individuals who were frequency matched for age. Genotyping was performed using a scanning laser fluorescence imager., Results: There were no differences in genotype frequencies between cases and control individuals, or between cases categorized by family history or by BRCA1 and BRCA2 germline mutation status. There was no evidence that the presence of one or two alleles of 26 glutamine repeats or fewer was associated with breast cancer (odds ratio = 1.03, 95% confidence interval = 0.73-1.44), or that women with alleles greater than 29 repeats were at increased risk of breast cancer. Exclusion of women who carried a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation (24 cases) and non-Caucasian women (44 cases) did not alter the risk estimates or inferences. We present raw data, including that on mutation carriers, to allow pooling with other studies., Conclusion: There was no evidence that risk of breast cancer depends on AIB1 CAG/CAA polymorphism status, even if affected women carry a mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2.
- Published
- 2005
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
19. Body size and composition and prostate cancer risk.
- Author
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MacInnis RJ, English DR, Gertig DM, Hopper JL, and Giles GG
- Subjects
- Adult, Age Distribution, Aged, Anthropometry, Australia epidemiology, Case-Control Studies, Confidence Intervals, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Prostatic Neoplasms diagnosis, Risk Assessment, Sensitivity and Specificity, Body Composition, Body Constitution, Prostatic Neoplasms epidemiology, Prostatic Neoplasms etiology
- Abstract
Reported associations between body measurements and the risk of prostate cancer are weak and inconsistent, possibly because some measures used do not differentiate between adipose and nonadipose tissue, body components that would theoretically have different associations with prostate cancer. Some studies have addressed this problem by estimating lean body mass from subjects' age, height, and weight. In a prospective cohort study of men 27-75 years of age at recruitment in 1990-1994, body measurements were taken by trained interviewers. Nonadipose and adipose mass were calculated from bioelectric impedance analysis. Incident prostate cancers were ascertained by use of the population cancer registry. Altogether 16,336 men contributed 113,535 person-years and 477 cancers, of which 79 were "aggressive," to the analysis. We found no overall association between prostate cancer and any anthropometric measurement. Analysis stratified by cancer aggressiveness revealed modest associations between measures of adiposity and the risk of aggressive disease. On the basis of the WHO cut points and compared with men in the normal range of body mass index, the risk ratio for obese men was 2.2 (95% confidence interval, 1.2-4.1). For each 10-kg increase in fat mass, the risk ratio was 1.4 (95% confidence interval, 1.0-1.8). Energy imbalance may play a role in the development of aggressive prostate cancer.
- Published
- 2003
20. Population genetic screening for hereditary haemochromatosis.
- Author
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Gertig DM, Hopper JL, and Allen KJ
- Subjects
- Adult, Aged, Australia epidemiology, Female, Hemochromatosis epidemiology, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Genetic Testing statistics & numerical data, Hemochromatosis genetics
- Published
- 2003
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
21. Public health aspects of genetic screening for hereditary haemochromatosis in Australia.
- Author
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Gertig DM, Fletcher A, and Hopper JL
- Subjects
- Australia epidemiology, Female, Hemochromatosis epidemiology, Hemochromatosis genetics, Humans, Male, Population Surveillance, Genetic Testing, Hemochromatosis diagnosis, Public Health Practice
- Abstract
Hereditary haemochromatosis (HH) is an inherited disorder of iron absorption. It meets several of the key public health principles for population-based screening and is considered to be a test-case for public health genetics. However, there has been relatively little debate in the public health or wider community regarding the merits of population-based genetic screening for HH. Genetic susceptibility to HH occurs in about 1:200 people and although mortality is low (age-standardised rate 2.75/million), there are potentially serious clinical manifestations of iron overload. Regular venesection is a simple and effective treatment for early stage iron overload. DNA-based testing is available and iron overload may be identified using serum transferrin saturation and ferritin tests. However, there are important gaps in knowledge relevant to screening for HH. The limited data on penetrance of HFE genotypes, and thus the uncertain probability that genetically susceptible individuals will develop clinically significant disease, is a major impediment to population-based genetic screening. Clinical evidence supports treating early-stage disease but no randomised controlled trials of the effectiveness of screening in reducing the burden of disease have been conducted. In addition, the natural history of early stages of HH and factors that may modify progression are unclear. Two intemational consensus panels on HH concluded that there is insufficient evidence for population-based screening at present. We present recommendations to advance the debate on screening for HH in Australia.
- Published
- 2002
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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