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We examine return predictability of Australian managed funds in twenty-four categories by using twenty-nine macroeconomic indicators. The time-series regression results suggest that coal price, GDP, and Treasury bill rate have predictive power over fund returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countries are becoming economically integrated and it is contended that this will also lead to their financial markets becoming integrated. This contention is important since international financial market integration diminishes portfolio diversification benefits and creates contagion risk. We test this contention in this article in the context of the Australasian region. Australia and Asia have experienced very significant economic integration through a rapid growth in their bilateral trade. We utilize a battery of econometric techniques - cointegration, asymmetric generalized dynamic conditional correlations and panel regression models. As expected, we find that trade intensity significantly drives the interdependence between their stock markets in both the short run and the long run. Thus, given the ever increasing economic integration in this region, this finding implies that their stock markets face the risk of contagion, and that investors in these markets would also be confronted with the prospect of lower diversification benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the extent and manner of stock market interdependence between Australia and its trading partners and examine whether this is affected by trade intensity. Based on trade intensity, we classify Australia’s trading partners into major, medium and minor partners. We hypothesize that markets with greater (lower) trade intensity will be more (less) interdependent with Australia. We perform correlation (unconditional and conditional) analyses between Australia and its trading partners. Our results indicate that most of the markets that are highly correlated with Australia are its major trading partners. We conduct panel regression analysis to investigate whether trade intensity has any impact on the stock market correlations between Australia and its trading partners. The results show that trade intensity significantly and positively affect the correlations of Australia with its major trading partners. Thus, the results confirm our hypothesis that trade intensity drives stock market interdependence between Australia and its trading partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- The purpose of this paper is to examine whether there exist significant benefits from diversification into frontier markets for an Australian investor in comparison to a US investor. Design/methodology/approach -- The study uses the computationally efficient ADCC GARCH model to estimate time-varying correlations of returns. The authors also compare the results to DCC GARCH correlations in order to test whether the results are model-specific. Optimal portfolios with several restrictions were constructed and the results from Australian and US investors were compared. The study also uses a holding out period that is rebalanced at the end of each quarter using new portfolio weights. Findings -- The study finds that there are significant benefits for the Australian investor from diversifying into frontier markets. However, the benefits to the US investor are much higher than that of an Australian investor. The results from the holding out period also present significantly higher benefits to the US investor compared to the Australian investor. Originality/value -- This study examines the diversification benefits to the Australian investor from frontier markets and compares the benefits of the Australian and the US investors. The results emphasise the potential benefits from including frontier markets in the portfolio. The paper also presents a holding out period analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the various segments of the managed funds market to establish if there is any significant difference in the way the assets are allocated into various asset categories and if investors base their investment decisions based on the past performance of the fund. Design/methodology/approach – An average investor who does not possess superior investment knowledge may base their investment decision on the past performance of funds resulting in flow based on past performance. This study uses a panel regression model to test the relationship between net flows and past excess returns. Findings – Significant differences are found in asset allocation between the retail and wholesale segments. Retail investors prefer less risky investments compared to wholesale investors and have lower preference for overseas investments. The results indicate that investors base their investment decisions on the past performance of funds, with the retail segment showing a higher level of influence of past performance, as compared to the wholesale segment. The results further show less evidence of a reaction to risk among the managed investment categories. Practical implications – Fund managers use fund performance for marketing purposes and results of the study may be of importance to the managers and investors in understanding this objective. The findings are also of significance for policy makers in terms of understanding investor behaviour. Originality/value – This is the first study of the Australian managed funds industry (including wholesale and retail funds) that tests the link between past performance and fund flows. The study includes data until June 2008, which includes a period when a number of policy changes occurred in Australian superannuation industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]