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Background and Aims: This paper describes the changes in temperature-based indices used to classify viticultural climates in Australia for three warming scenarios produced by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation: Mk3.0 global climate model for the years 2030, 2050 and 2070. Methods and Results: Temperature indices that describe grapevine growing season temperature (GST), ripening period temperature, accumulated biologically effective degree days and growing season length were calculated to produce maps of Australia for each warming scenario. Summary statistics of each index's median and range are presented for each Australian wine region under each warming scenario. The greatest change in GST (above the 1971–2000 mean) was modelled to occur for the Perth Hills region, increasing by 1.0°C by 2030, 1.9°C by 2050 and 2.7°C by 2070. The least change in GST was modelled to occur for the Kangaroo Island region, increasing by 0.5°C by 2030, 0.9°C by 2050 and 1.3°C by 2070. Conclusion: Of the 61 recognised wine regions, a median GST of over 21°C (an indicator of the limit of quality wine grape production conditions) was found for three regions for the period 1971–2000, for eight regions for the 2030 scenario, 12 regions for the 2050 scenario and 21 regions for the 2070 scenario. Significance of the Study: Without appropriate adaptations, some established viticultural regions of Australia may become less suitable for quality winegrape production, whereas regions that were once considered unsuitable for quality winegrape production may become more suitable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives : To determine the feasibility of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) examining outdoor walking on knee osteoarthritis (KOA) clinical outcomes and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) structural changes. Method: This was a 24-week parallel two-arm pilot RCT in Tasmania, Australia. KOA participants were randomized to either a walking plus usual care group or a usual care control group. The walking group trained 3 days/week. The primary outcome was feasibility assessed by changes being required to the study design, recruitment, randomization, program adherence, safety, and retention. Exploratory outcomes were changes in symptoms, physical performance/activity, and MRI measures. Results: Forty participants (mean age 66 years (SD 1.4) and 60% female) were randomized to walking (n = 24) or usual care (n = 16). Simple randomization resulted in a difference in numbers randomized to the two groups. During the study, class sizes were reduced from 10 to 8 participants to improve supervision, and exclusion criteria were added to facilitate program adherence. In the walking group, total program adherence was 70.0% and retention 70.8% at 24 weeks. The walking group had a higher number of mild adverse events and experienced clinically important improvements in symptoms (e.g., visual analogue scale (VAS) knee pain change in the walking group: − 38.7 mm [95% CI − 47.1 to − 30.3] versus usual care group: 4.3 mm [− 4.9 to 13.4]). Conclusions: This study supports the feasibility of a full-scale RCT given acceptable adherence, retention, randomization, and safety, and recruitment challenges have been identified. Large symptomatic benefits support the clinical usefulness of a subsequent trial. Trial registration number: 12618001097235. Key Points • This pilot study is the first to investigate the effects of an outdoor walking program on knee osteoarthritis clinical outcomes and MRI joint structure, and it indicates that a full-scale RCT is feasible. • The outdoor walking program (plus usual care) resulted in large improvements in self-reported knee osteoarthritis symptoms compared to usual care alone. • The study identified recruitment challenges, and the manuscript explores these in more details and provides recommendations for future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, the impacts of anthropogenic climate change can displace species into more favourable climates. Semi‐arid desert specialists, such as the sandhill dunnart, Sminthopsis psammophila, are typically susceptible to rainfall deficits, wildfires and extreme temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change. We first used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the current distribution of S. psammophila. Between 2016 and 2018, we ground validated the model's predictions throughout Western Australia, confirming S. psammophila in 18 locations in which it was predicted to occur. The predicted distribution of S. psammophila appears mostly constrained to within its known range. However, S. psammophila was verified 150 km north of its range in Western Australia and connectivity between the South Australian populations was correctly predicted. In 2019, we used updated occurrence data to project SDMs for S. psammophila during the mid‐Holocene, present day and under two future representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of RCP 4.5 (an optimistic emissions scenario) and RCP 8.5 ("business as usual") for 2050 and 2070. By 2050 (RCP 8.5), almost all Western Australian Great Victoria Desert (WAGVD) habitat is predicted to be unsuitable for S. psammophila. By 2070 (RCP 8.5), the climates of the WAGVD and Yellabinna Regional Reserve populations are predicted to become unsuitable, and the species' geographical range is predicted to contract in Australia by 80%. However, the 2070 (RCP 4.5) scenario predicts that this contraction could be halved. As a sandy desert specialist, the distribution of S. psammophila is geographically limited at its southern bounds due to the cessation of suitable spinifex (Triodia spp.) habitats, and so further extension of the range southwards is not possible. Sympatric desert species may be similarly affected, and we suggest that SDMs will be a useful tool in helping to predict the effects of climate change on their distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author reflects on the database research in Australia. He states the advantages of database research such as being large and cheap to conduct as well as suitable for long-term follow-up. According to the author, Australia has lagged behind the world in database research for reasons such as the lack of national databases that can be easily accessed.

Abstract: Thoroughbred jumps racing jockeys have a fall rate greater than their flat racing counterparts. Previous studies have focused on factors that contribute to falls by horses but, to date, there has not been a study of risk factors for falls to jockeys in jumps races. Data on race-day falls were extracted from stipendiary stewards reports lodged with Principal Racing Authorities following each race meeting. Denominator data were provided by Racing Information Services Australia on races conducted from August 2002 until July 2009. Univariable and multivariable analyses, estimating incidence rate ratios, were conducted using Poisson regression. In multivariable analysis in hurdle racing, important predictors of falls were higher club level, larger field size, greater prize money, provisionally licenced jockeys and older jockeys. There were significant interactions between jockey licence and prize money; jockey age and previous rides this meeting; race grade and race distance; horse age and field size; and club level and field size. In steeplechase racing, important predictors were type of jump with lowest fall rates in races over Mark III jumps compared to standard fences, provisionally licenced jockeys, jockeys having had previous rides at a meeting, and larger field size. There were significant interactions between the number of previous starts by the horse and field size; race distance and prize money; and race distance and previous rides this meeting. This study has identified factors for falls in jumps racing that could form the basis for targeted strategies to improve occupational health and safety standards. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: In this large population-based study, walking was assessed twice yearly for a week, each time by pedometer, had consistent clinically important associations with hip areal bone mineral density (aBMD) in both sexes which appears most important in those over 65 years of age suggesting that walking becomes more important with increasing age. Introduction: Walking is advocated as a preventative strategy for osteoporosis but the evidence is conflicting in females and lacking in males. The aim of this population-based longitudinal study in community dwelling older people ( n = 875) was to determine the association between pedometer determined ambulatory activity (PAA) and bone mass. Methods: Bone mass was assessed as aBMD at the hip and spine using dual X-ray absorptiometry. Steps per day were measured using pedometers for 1 week on four occasions at least 6 months apart. Data were analysed using linear mixed models. Results: At baseline, PAA was positively associated with hip aBMD. An age interaction was present with steps having a stronger association for those aged over 65 years. Longitudinally, the effect of steps on hip aBMD was constant, but not additive over time. For those over 65 years, the difference in hip aBMD between the lowest and highest steps quartiles ranged from 3.1% to 9.4%. With regard to the spine, the relationship between daily steps and spine aBMD was modified by sex. For males; there was no significant relationship between steps and spine aBMD. However, for females, higher steps were associated with higher spine aBMD with the effect being constant over time but not additive. There was no evidence of a threshold effect. Conclusion: In conclusion, pedometer-determined ambulatory activity has consistent clinically important associations with hip aBMD in both sexes which appears most important in those over 65 years of age. The associations for spine aBMD were both weaker and inconsistent suggesting site specificity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background - The Menzies Centre has employed a strategy of including physical and biological measures of exposure in its studies where these might be relevant. The Centre has used such measures not surprisingly where the alternative - questionnaire or direct observation - could not obviously provide the desired information. The Centre has also used physical and biological measures to assist the interpretation of data obtained from questionnaire measures or simpler physical measures. Review - In research on the occurrence of dysplastic naevi, a risk factor for melanoma, three physical/biological measures were used in parallel with two established questionnaire measures. Amid the risk factors of interest, in place of sun exposure questions direct sun exposure using polysulphone badges was undertaken and in conjunction with self reported measures of tendency to burn or tan a non-invasive measure of melanin density using a spectrophotometer was included. Also a measure of the type of melanin each individual was producing was obtained from hair samples. In a cohort study of children where the endpoint of interest was bone density information on diet was obtained and physical activity via questionnaire. In addition, physical activity was measured using pedometers, vitamin D was measured from a serum sample. Both the abovementioned studies were able to obtain valuable extra insights for an inclusion of the biological and physical measures.The relevant results will be presented. The Menzies Centre currently has a large NHMRC grant to follow a cohort of over 8,484 children who had physical and biological measurements made on them between the ages of 7 and 15, as well as having had information on diet and physical activity collected through self report. Both sets of information will be used to estimate childhood exposures in a study which now seeks to re-measure the cohort members at age 25-33. As the first step in a longer process of following them until later life diseases, such as coronary heart disease, occur. Conclusions - The goal of this study will be to separate the effect of childhood exposures from exposures in early adulthood on risk of adult coronary heart disease and some other conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims It has been proposed that the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula estimates glomerular filtration rate more accurately than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease formula. With the very high incidence of diabetes and end-stage kidney disease in Indigenous Australians, accurate estimation of glomerular filtration rate is vital in early detection of kidney disease. We aimed to assess the performance of the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Cockcroft-Gault formulas in Indigenous Australians with and without diabetes. Methods Indigenous Australians with ( n = 224) or without ( n = 340) Type 2 diabetes had a reference glomerular filtration rate measure using plasma disappearance of iohexol (measured glomerular filtration rate) over 4 h. Serum creatinine was measured by an enzymatic method. Performance was assessed by bias (measured glomerular filtration rate - estimated glomerular filtration rate) and accuracy (percentage of estimated glomerular filtration rate within 30% of measured glomerular filtration rate). Results The median measured glomerular filtration rate (interquartile range) in participants with or without diabetes was 97 (68-119) and 108 (90-122) ml min−1 1.73 m−2, respectively. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula had smaller bias and greater accuracy than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Cockcroft-Gault formulas overall, for participants both with and without diabetes. However, for estimated glomerular filtration rate > 90 ml min−1 1.73 m−2, the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula had greater bias in participants with diabetes, underestimating measured glomerular filtration rate by 7.4 vs. 1.0 ml min−1 1.73 m−2 in those without diabetes. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula was less accurate across the whole range of estimated glomerular filtration rates in participants with vs. those without diabetes (87.1% vs. 93.3%). Conclusions The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula outperforms the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Cockcroft-Gault formulas overall in Indigenous Australians with and without diabetes. However, the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula has greater bias in people with diabetes compared with those without diabetes, especially in those with normal renal function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Sunlight deprivation results in vitamin D deficiency but serum vitamin D levels can be maintained above 50nmol/L when supplemented with 50,000IU at least every alternate month. Introduction: Antarctic expeditioners are exposed to prolonged sunlight deprivation resulting in vitamin D deficiency. We hypothesised that monthly dosing of 50,000 IU vitamin D (~1,600 IU daily) will increase serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), suppress parathyroid hormone (PTH) and improve bone mineral density (BMD), 50,000 IU alternate months (~800 IU daily) will maintain these measures, while a single 50,000 IU dose pre-departure (~1,00 IU daily) will not be protective. Methods: This was a randomised double-blind study involving 110 healthy adults: 91 males, mean age 41 years (range 24-65 years) working in Antarctica for up to 12 months, who we administered 50,000 IU vitamin D3 monthly, alternate months or a single dose pre-departure. Serum 25(OH)D, PTH, osteocalcin, CTx and calcium were assessed at baseline, mid- and end of expedition. Proximal femur and lumbar spine BMD were assessed pre- and post-expedition. Results: Baseline 25(OH)D was 59 ± 14 nmol/L. By mid-expedition, 25(OH)D increased by 7 nmol/L in those supplemented monthly ( p < 0.05) and remained unchanged in those supplemented in alternate months. In those given a single dose pre-departure, 25(OH)D decreased by 8 nmol/L ( p < 0.05) and PTH increased by 27% ( p < 0.09). Serum osteocalcin increased by ~22% in all groups but BMD remained unchanged. If serum 25(OH)D was >50 nmol/L at baseline, 25(OH)D was maintained above this level with all regimens. If 25(OH)D was <50 nmol/L at baseline, monthly or alternate month regimens were needed to achieve levels >50 nmol/L, the single pre-departure dose was ineffective. Conclusion: During sunlight deprivation of up to 12 months, serum 25(OH)D levels can be maintained above 50 nmol/L when expeditioners are provided with 50,000 I U at least every alternate month. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]