1. HyFS a Hydrological Forecasting System for a Continent.
- Author
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Robinson, Justin, Keir, Greg, Wen Wang, Robinson, Cynthia, and Wei Wang
- Subjects
HYDROLOGICAL forecasting ,CLIMATE change ,FLOOD risk ,RAINFALL ,HYDRODYNAMICS ,WATER supply - Abstract
The Bureau's flood forecasting service was never more important to the Australian Community than during the past three years of flooding which caused "unprecedented" impacts with the scale of flooding "up there" with the flooding which occurred in the 1970s and 1950s. The Bureau's flood forecasting service is underpinned by its enterprise Hydrological Forecasting System (HyFS). HyFS is one of the world's largest operational hydrological forecasting systems and the only one covering an entire continent. It enables the Bureau's operational flood specialists to fully utilise intelligence from more than 8,000 rainfall and river gauges, as well as radar rainfall, storm surge and rainfall and hydrological forecasts. HyFS utilises Delft-FEWS which is one of the most widely adopted operational hydrological forecasting frameworks in the world. This paper describes how the Bureau's hydrological forecasting systems have evolved since the 1980s to the world leading forecasting system we have today. It focuses on the tools and features of HyFS and what it takes for a hydrological model to make the transition from research to the operational forecasting desk and enable it to be fully utilised by operational forecasters. A forecasting system is not only about forecasting tools, but the support arrangements and architecture to ensure it remains available, 24 hours per day every day of the year. Once flood events have passed, HyFS provides tools for archiving, post event analysis, and assessment of the forecasts and warnings issued. These are essential to ensure that the forecasting and warning capability of the Bureau continues to evolve and improve after each flood event. HyFS was fully transitioned into operations in 2015 and has continued to evolve, with future plans which include greater use of continuous hydrological models, as well as hydraulic modelling and ensemble forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023