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Background: Residential aged-care facilities in Australia emerged as the high-risk setting the COVID-19 outbreaks due to community transmission. The vulnerable aged-care residents of these facilities suffered due to low hospital transfers and high mortality and morbidity rates. This study aimed to monitor and report the burden of COVID-19 in residential aged-care facilities across Australia and the impact of hospital transfer policies on resident hospitalisation during the first year of the pandemic. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study by collecting data from weekly aged-care outbreak reports published by open sources and official government sources between 1st March and 20th November 2020. A comprehensive line list of outbreaks was created using open-source data. The line list included the name of the facility, location, COVID-19 cases among residents, & staff, resident hospitalisations, mode of transmission, number of resident deaths, and state policies involving resident hospitalisation. We also searched the websites of these facilities to collect data on their COVID-19 policies for the residents, staff, and visitors. Statistical analyses were performed on the data obtained. Results: 126 aged-care COVID-19 outbreaks were identified in Australia during the study period. The incidence rate of COVID-19 infections among aged-care residents in Australia was (1118.5 per 100,000 resident population) which is 10 times higher than the general population (107.6 per 100,000 population). The hospitalisation rate for aged-care residents in Australia was 0.93 per 100,000 population. The hospitalisation rate of aged-care residents in Victoria was 3.14 per 100,000 population despite having the highest COVID-19 cases. Excluding South Australia, all states followed ad-hoc case-by-case hospital transfer policies for aged-care residents. Conclusion: This study documented a higher risk of COVID-19 infection for aged-care residents and workers but found low hospitalisation rates among residents across Australia. The hospitalisation rates in Victoria were higher than the national average but low when considering the COVID-19 infection rates in the state. The hospitalisation rates could have been impacted due to the state hospital transfer policies at that time. Immediate transfer of infected residents to hospitals may improve their survival and reduce the risk of infection to the other residents, as healthcare settings have more advanced infection control measures and are well-equipped with trained staff and resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The AstraZeneca ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine is associated with Thrombosis with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome (TTS) in 3/100,000 vaccinations with high fatality rates reported in many countries. We conducted a risk–benefit analysis for Australians aged 18–59 years, comparing the risk of vaccination versus infection, and rate of TTS to other vaccines which prompted policy change following rare adverse events – rotavirus, smallpox and oral polio vaccines. COVID-19 deaths over 12 months range from 0 to 417 in current and future worst case scenarios. In the past 15 months 20 COVID-19 deaths occurred in people < 60 years compared to 890 deaths over 60 years. The estimated possible number of TTS cases is 347, with vaccine-related deaths ranging from 17 to 153 if 80% of adults 18–59 years are vaccinated. The reported rate of TTS is in the same range as rare but serious adverse events associated with other vaccines that have been subject to policy change. In Australia, the potential risks of the AZD1222 vaccine in younger adults, who are at low risk of dying from COVID-19, may outweigh the benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Planning for a re-emergent epidemic of smallpox requires surge capacity of space, resources and personnel within health systems. There are many uncertainties in such a scenario, including likelihood and size of an attack, speed of response and health system capacity. We used a model for smallpox transmission to determine requirements for hospital beds, contact tracing and health workers (HCWs) in Sydney, Australia, during a modelled epidemic of smallpox. Sensitivity analysis was done on attack size, speed of response and proportion of case isolation and contact tracing. We estimated 100638 clinical HCWs and 14595 public hospital beds in Sydney. Rapid response, case isolation and contact tracing are influential on epidemic size, with case isolation more influential than contact tracing. With 95% of cases isolated, outbreak control can be achieved within 100 days even with only 50% of contacts traced. However, if case isolation and contact tracing both fall to 50%, epidemic control is lost. With a smaller initial attack and a response commencing 20 days after the attack, health system impacts are modest. The requirement for hospital beds will vary from up to 4% to 100% of all available beds in best and worst case scenarios. If the response is delayed, or if the attack infects 10000 people, all available beds will be exceeded within 40 days, with corresponding surge requirements for clinical health care workers (HCWs). We estimated there are 330 public health workers in Sydney with up to 940,350 contacts to be traced. At least 3 million respirators will be needed for the first 100 days. To ensure adequate health system capacity, rapid response, high rates of case isolation, excellent contact tracing and vaccination, and protection of HCWs should be a priority. Surge capacity must be planned. Failures in any of these could cause health system failure, with inadequate beds, quarantine spaces, personnel, PPE and inability to manage other acute health conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Australia, a Goods and Services Tax (GST) introduced in 2000 led to a decline in the price of ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages relative to other alcohol products. The 2008 RTD ("alcopops") tax increased RTD prices. The objective of this study was to estimate the change in incidence of Emergency Department (ED) presentations for acute alcohol problems associated with each tax. Methods: Segmented regression analyses were performed on age and sex-specific time series of monthly presentation rates for acute alcohol problems to 39 hospital emergency departments across New South Wales, Australia over 15 years, 1997 to 2011. Indicator variables represented the introduction of each tax. Retail liquor turnover controlled for large-scale economic factors such as the global financial crisis that may have influenced demand. Under-age (15-17 years) and legal age (18 years and over) drinkers were included. Results: The GST was associated with a statistically significant increase in ED presentations for acute alcohol problems among 18-24 year old females (0.14/100 000/month, 95% CI 0.05-0.22). The subsequent alcopops tax was associated with a statistically significant decrease in males 15-50 years, and females 15-65 years, particularly in 18-24 year old females (-0.37/100 000/month, 95% CI -0.45 to -0.29). An increase in retail turnover of liquor was positively and statistically significantly associated with ED presentations for acute alcohol problems across all age and sex strata. Conclusions: Reduced tax on RTDs was associated with increasing ED presentations for acute alcohol problems among young women. The alcopops tax was associated with declining presentations in young to middle-aged persons of both sexes, including under-age drinkers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cardiovascular diseases are the major cause of hospitalisation and death globally. Infections exacerbate cardiovascular events among cardiac patients, contributing to all-cause mortality. Vaccination is a cheap and effective intervention that can prevent infection. In Australia, influenza, pneumococcal and herpes zoster vaccines are recommended and funded for high-risk adults such as cardiac patients. There is high prevalence of high-risk adults in Western Sydney. This study investigates the uptake of influenza, pneumococcal and herpes zoster vaccines in patients admitted with heart failure and atrial fibrillation in a tertiary hospital in Western Sydney and factors associated with the uptake of the vaccines. Consecutive patients' hospitalised between 2014 and 2018 with heart failure or atrial fibrillation as principal diagnoses were identified. Information on patients' social demographic, clinical and vaccination status was collected and described using descriptive analysis. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to determine factors associated with the uptake of the vaccines. Low uptake for pneumococcal (40–45 %) and herpes zoster (15 %) vaccines were found. Prevalence of influenza vaccination was lower among participants younger than 65 (51–72 %) than in older ones (78–96 %). Australia-born participants were more likely to receive pneumococcal vaccine than those born overseas (OR 2.02, 95 % CI 1.05–3.89). Participants 65 years or older and those with comorbidities such as hypertension, COPD and chronic renal impairment were more likely to receive the vaccines. Multidisciplinary strategies are needed to improve access to vaccination, community knowledge, community engagement, and healthcare provider support to provide appropriate care to migrants and younger cardiac patients and reduce morbidity and mortality in this high-risk group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Compare the adoption and adherence to health protection behaviours prior to and during travel among international Australian travellers who return to Australia with notified chikungunya or malaria infection. This information could inform targeted health promotion and intervention strategies to limit the establishment of these diseases within Australia. Results: Seeking travel advice prior to departure was moderate (46%, N = 21/46) yet compliance with a range of recommended anti-vectorial prevention measures was low among both chikungunya and malaria infected groups (16%, N = 7/45). Reasons for not seeking advice between groups was similar and included ‘previous overseas travel with no problems’ (45%, N = 9/20) and ‘no perceived risk of disease’ (20%, N = 4/20). Most chikungunya cases (65%, N = 13/20) travelled to Indonesia and a further 25% (N = 5/20) visited India, however most malaria cases (62%, N = 16/26) travelled to continental Africa with only 12% (N = 3/26) travelling to India. The majority (50%, N = 10/20) of chikungunya cases reported ‘holiday’ as their primary purpose of travel, compared to malaria cases who most frequently reported travel to visit friends and family (VFR; 42%, N = 11/26). These results provide import data that may be used to support distinct public health promotion and intervention strategies of two important vector-borne infectious diseases of concern for Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Influenza outbreaks in aged care facilities are a major public health concern. In response to the severe 2017 influenza season in Australia, enhanced influenza vaccines were introduced from 2018 onwards for those over 65 and more emphasis was placed on improving vaccination rates among aged care staff. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these efforts were then further escalated to reduce the additional burden that influenza could pose to facilities. An observational epidemiological study was conducted from 2018 to 2020 in nine Sydney (Australia) aged care facilities of the same provider. De-identified vaccination data and physical layout data were collected from participating facility managers from 2018 to 2020. Active surveillance of influenza-like illness was carried out from 2018 to 2020 influenza seasons. Correlation and Poisson regression analyses were carried out to explore the relationship between physical layout variables to occurrence of influenza cases. Influenza cases were low in 2018 and 2019, and there were no confirmed influenza cases identified in 2020. Vaccination rates increased among staff by 50.5% and residents by 16.8% over the three-year period of surveillance from 2018 to 2020. For each unit increase in total number of beds, common areas, single rooms, all types of rooms (including double occupancy rooms), the influenza cases increased by 1.02 (95% confidence interval:1.018–1.025), 1.04 (95% confidence interval: 1.019–1.073), 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 1.016–1 0.038) and 1.02 (95% confidence interval:1.005–1.026) times which were found to be statistically significant. For each unit increase in the proportion of shared rooms, influenza cases increased by 1.004 (95% confidence interval:1.0001–1.207) which was found to be statistically significant. There is a relationship between influenza case counts and aspects of the physical layout such as facility size, and this should be considered in assessing risk of outbreaks in aged care facilities. Increased vaccination rates in staff and COVID-19 prevention and control measures may have eliminated influenza in the studied facilities in 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to determine optimal mitigation strategies in the event of an aerosolized attack with Bacillus anthracis , a category A bioterrorism agent with a case fatality rate of nearly 100% if inhaled and untreated. To simulate the effect of an anthrax attack, we used a plume dispersion model for Sydney, Australia, accounting for weather conditions. We determined the radius of exposure in different sizes of attack scenarios by spore quantity released per second. Estimations of different spore concentrations were then used to calculate the exposed population to inform a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) deterministic mathematical model. Results are shown as estimates of the total number of exposed and infected people, along with the burden of disease, to quantify the amount of vaccination and antibiotics doses needed for stockpiles. For the worst-case scenario, over 500,000 people could be exposed and over 300,000 infected. The number of deaths depends closely on timing to start postexposure prophylaxis. Vaccination used as a postexposure prophylaxis in conjunction with antibiotics is the most effective mitigation strategy to reduce deaths after an aerosolized attack and is more effective when the response starts early (2 days after release) and has high adherence, while it makes only a small difference when started late (after 10 days).

Objectives: To determine patterns of mask wearing and other infection prevention behaviours, over two time periods of the COVID-19 pandemic, in cities where mask wearing was not a cultural norm., Methods: A cross-sectional survey of masks and other preventive behaviours in adults aged ≥18 years was conducted in five cities: Sydney and Melbourne, Australia; London, UK; and Phoenix and New York, USA. Data were analysed according to the epidemiology of COVID-19, mask mandates and a range of predictors of mask wearing., Results: The most common measures used were avoiding public areas (80.4%), hand hygiene (76.4%), wearing masks (71.8%) and distancing (67.6%). Over 40% of people avoided medical facilities. These measures decreased from March-July 2020. Pandemic fatigue was associated with younger age, low perceived severity of COVID-19 and declining COVID-19 prevalence. Predictors of mask wearing were location (US, UK), mandates, age <50 years, education, having symptoms and knowing someone with COVID-19. Negative experiences with mask wearing and low perceived severity of COVID-19 reduced mask wearing. Most respondents (98%) believed that hand washing and distancing were necessary, and 80% reported no change or stricter adherence to these measures when wearing masks., Conclusion: Pandemic mitigation measures were widely reported across all cities, but decreased between March and July 2020. Pandemic fatigue was more common in younger people. Cities with mandates had higher rates of mask wearing. Promotion of mask use for older people may be useful. Masks did not result in a reduction of other hygiene measures., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

The reemergence of smallpox as a bioterrorism attack is now an increasing and legitimate concern. Advances in synthetic biology have now made it possible for the virus to be synthesized in a laboratory, with methods publicly available. Smallpox introduction into a susceptible population, with increased immunosuppression and an aging population, raises questions of how vaccination should be used in an epidemic situation when supply may be limited. We constructed three modified susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered (SEIR) models to simulate targeted, ring and mass vaccination in response to a smallpox outbreak in Sydney, Australia. We used age-specific distributions of susceptibility, infectivity, contact rates, and tested outputs under different assumptions. The number of doses needed of second- and third-generation vaccines are estimated, along with the total number of deaths at the end of the epidemic. We found a faster response is the key and ring vaccination of traced contacts is the most effective strategy and requires a smaller number of doses. However if public health authorities are unable to trace a high proportion of contacts, mass vaccination with at least 125,000 doses delivered per day is required. This study informs a better preparedness and response planning for vaccination in a case of a smallpox outbreak in a setting such as Sydney.

Objectives: In this study, we aimed to measure the awareness, acceptability and perceptions of current issues in biosecurity posed by infectious diseases dual-use research of concern (DURC) in the community. DURC is conducted today in many locations around the world for the benefit of humanity but may also cause harm through either a laboratory accident or deliberate misuse. Most DURC is approved by animal ethics committees, which do not typically consider harm to humans. Given the unique characteristics of contagion and the potential for epidemics and pandemics, the community is an important stakeholder in DURC., Design: Self-administered web-based cross-sectional survey., Participants: Participants over the age of 18 in Australia and 21 in the USA were included in the survey. A total of 604 participants completed the study. The results of 52 participants were excluded due to potential biases about DURC stemming from their employment as medical researchers, infectious diseases researchers or law enforcement professionals, leaving 552 participants. Of those, 274 respondents resided in Australia and 278 in the USA., Outcomes: Baseline awareness, acceptability and perceptions of current issues surrounding DURC. Changes in perception from baseline were measured after provision of information about DURC., Results: Presurvey, 77% of respondents were unaware of DURC and 64% found it unacceptable or were unsure. Two-thirds of respondents did not change their views. The baseline perception of high risk for laboratory accidents (29%) and deliberate bioterrorism (34%) was low but increased with increasing provision of information (42% and 44% respectively, p<0.001), with men more accepting of DURC (OR=1.79, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.57, p=0.002). Postsurvey, higher education predicted lower risk perception of laboratory accidents (OR=0.56, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.93, p=0.02) and bioterrorism (OR=0.48, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.80, p=0.004)., Conclusion: The community is an important stakeholder in infectious diseases DURC but has a low awareness of this kind of research. Only a minority support DURC, and this proportion decreased with increasing provision of knowledge. There were differences of opinion between age groups, gender and education levels. The community should be informed and engaged in decisions about DURC., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Author CRM has sat on advisory boards for GSK, CSL and Pfizer and has received funding or in-kind support for investigator-driven research from GSK, BioCSL, Wyeth and Pfizer., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: The aim of this survey was to investigate parental vaccination attitudes and responses to vaccine-related media messages from political and medical leaders., Design: This was a cross-sectional study using a semiquantitative questionnaire. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, X 2 tests and logistic regression., Setting: Data were collected from a web-based questionnaire distributed in Australia by a market research company in May of 2017., Participants: 411 participants with at least one child under 5 were included in this study. The sample was designed to be representative of Australia in terms of gender and state of residence., Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: The primary outcome measures were parental attitudes towards childhood immunisation before and after viewing vaccine-related messages from political and medical leaders, including Donald Trump (USA), Pauline Hanson (Australia) and Michael Gannon (Australia). Parents were classified as having 'susceptible' (not fixed) or 'fixed' (positive or negative) views towards vaccination based on a series of questions., Results: Parents with fixed vaccination views constituted 23.8% (n=98) of the total sample; 21.7% (n=89) were pro-vaccination and 2.2% (n=9) were anti-vaccination. The remaining 76.2% of participants were classified as having susceptible views towards vaccination. Susceptible parents were more likely to report a change in their willingness to vaccinate after watching vaccine-related messages compared with fixed-view parents, regardless of whether the messaging was positive or negative (Trump OR 2.54, 95% CI (1.29 to 5.00); Hanson OR 2.64, 95% CI (1.26 to 5.52); Gannon OR 2.64, 95% CI (1.26 to 5.52)). Susceptible parents were more likely than fixed-view parents to report increased vaccine hesitancy after viewing negative vaccine messages (Trump OR 2.14, 95% CI (1.11 to 4.14), Hanson OR 2.34, 95% CI (1.21 to 4.50))., Conclusions: The findings suggest that most parents including the vaccinating majorty are susceptible to vaccine messaging from political and medical leaders. Categorising parents as 'fixed-view' or 'susceptible' can be a useful strategy for designing and implementing future vaccine promotion interventions., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)