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Determining whether and how evolution is predictable is an important goal, particularly as anthropogenic disturbances lead to novel species interactions that could modify selective pressures. Here, we use a multigeneration field experiment with brown anole lizards (Anolis sagrei) to test hypotheses about the predictability of evolution. We manipulated the presence/absence of predators and competitors of A. sagrei across 16 islands in the Bahamas that had preexisting brown anole populations. Before the experiment and again after roughly five generations, we measured traits related to locomotor performance and habitat use by brown anoles and used double-digest restriction enzyme–associated DNA sequencing to estimate genome-wide changes in allele frequencies. Although previous work showed that predators and competitors had characteristic effects on brown anole behavior, diet, and population sizes, we found that evolutionary change at both phenotypic and genomic levels was difficult to forecast. Phenotypic changes were contingent on sex and habitat use, whereas genetic change was unpredictable and not measurably correlated with phenotypic changes, experimental treatments, or other environmental factors. Our work shows how differences in ecological context can alter evolutionary outcomes over short timescales and underscores the difficulty of forecasting evolutionary responses to multispecies interactions in natural conditions, even in a well-studied system with ample supporting ecological information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal signals evolve in an ecological context. Locally adapting animal sexual signals can be especially important for initiating or reinforcing reproductive isolation during the early stages of speciation. Previous studies have demonstrated that dewlap colour in Anolis lizards can be highly variable between populations in relation to both biotic and abiotic adaptive drivers at relatively large geographical scales. Here, we investigated differentiation of dewlap coloration among habitat types at a small spatial scale, within multiple islands of the West Indies, to test the hypothesis that similar local adaptive processes occur over smaller spatial scales. We explored variation in dewlap coloration in the most widespread species of anole, Anolis sagrei, across three characteristic habitats spanning the Bahamas and the Cayman Islands, namely beach scrub, primary coppice forest and mangrove forest. Using reflectance spectrometry paired with supervised machine learning, we found significant differences in spectral properties of the dewlap between habitats within small islands, sometimes over very short distances. Passive divergence in dewlap phenotype associated with isolation‐by‐distance did not seem to explain our results. On the other hand, these habitat‐specific dewlap differences varied in magnitude and direction across islands, and thus, our primary test for adaptation—parallel responses across islands—was not supported. We suggest that neutral processes or selection could be involved in several ways, including sexual selection. Our results shed new light on the scale at which signal colour polymorphism can be maintained in the presence of gene flow, and the relative role of local adaptation and other processes in driving these patterns of dewlap colour variation across islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical ectotherms are thought to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they are thermal specialists, having evolved in aseasonal thermal environments. However, even within the tropics, habitat structure can influence opportunities for behavioral thermoregulation. Open (and edge) habitats likely promote more effective thermoregulation due to the high spatial heterogeneity of the thermal landscape, while forests are thermally homogenous and may constrain opportunities for behavioral buffering of environmental temperatures. Nevertheless, the ways in which behavior and physiology interact at local scales to influence the response to climate change are rarely investigated. We examined the thermal ecology and physiology of two lizard species that occupy distinct environments in the tropics. The brown anole lizard (Anolis sagrei) lives along forest edges in The Bahamas, whereas the Panamanian slender anole (Anolis apletophallus) lives under the canopy of mature forests in Panama. We combined detailed estimates of environmental variation, thermoregulatory behavior, and physiology to model the vulnerability of each of these species. Our projections suggest that forest‐dwelling slender anoles will experience severely reduced locomotor performance, activity time, and energy budgets as the climate warms over the coming century. Conversely, the forest‐edge‐dwelling brown anoles may use behavioral compensation in the face of warming, maintaining population viability for many decades. Our results indicate that local habitat variation, through its effects on behavior and physiology, is a major determinant of vulnerability to climate change. When attempting to predict the impacts of climate change on a given population, broad‐scale characteristics such as latitude may have limited predictive power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two recent hurricanes passed directly over the northern Bahamas 2 years apart, allowing a comparison of their effects on lizard populations inhabiting exactly the same islands. The hurricanes differed in two ways: one struck during the reproductive season and was relatively severe; the other struck after most reproduction had taken place and was milder. The late-season hurricane produced a significant relation between population reduction and lowness of the island that lasted at least through two seasons; the earlier hurricane produced no such relationship. The late-season hurricane wiped out populations of lizards on two islands (two of the three lowest) that the earlier hurricane failed to exterminate even though it was stronger. We relate these effects to the fact that the study lizards regenerated from the earlier hurricane only via the egg stage, whereas eggs were unavailable when the later storm struck and regeneration was via hatched lizards. We discriminate and illustrate four kinds of hurricanes, cross-classified by two contrasts: earlier vs. later and stronger vs. weaker. A later, stronger hurricane completely exterminated lizard populations at a second Bahamian site, whereas an earlier, weaker hurricane had no detectable effect at a third Bahamian site. We suggest that, in addition to severity, the timing of a hurricane as it coincides with reproductive scheduling or other phenological aspects may determine the magnitude of its effect on a variety of organisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We document the decimation and recovery of the commonest lizard species, Anolis sagrei, on 66 islands in the Bahamas that were directly hit by Hurricane Floyd in September 1999. Before the hurricane, an island's area was a better predictor of the occurrence of A. sagrei than was its altitude. Immediately after, altitude was a better predictor: Apparently all lizards on islands lower than about 3 meters maximum elevation perished in the storm surge. After about 1 year, area again became the better predictor. By 19 months after the hurricane, A. sagrei populations occurred on 88% of the islands they formerly occupied. Recovery occurred via overwater colonization and propagation from eggs that survived inundation, mechanisms that were enhanced by larger island area. Thus, natural processes first destroyed and then quickly restored a highly regular species-area distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses a study of the presence of founder effects and natural selection in differentiating populations of brown anoles (Anolis sagrei) introduced on several islands of the Bahamas from randomly-selected pairs of lizards. The researchers found variations between the island populations in their genetic and morphological traits such as hindlimb length, despite the fact that the lizards were adapting to similar habitats with narrow vegetation. These results indicate that founder effects are a significant influence on the evolutionary divergence of populations, even in the face of pressures from natural selection.

As the environment changes, will species be able to adapt? By conducting experiments in natural environments, biologists can study how evolutionary processes such as natural selection operate through time. We predicted that the introduction of a terrestrial predator would first select for longer-legged lizards, which are faster, but as the lizards shifted onto high twigs to avoid the predator, selection would reverse toward favoring the shorter-legged individuals better able to locomote there. Our experimental studies on 12 islets confirmed these predictions within a single generation, thus demonstrating the rapidity with which evolutionary forces can change during times of environmental flux.

Population phenomena, which provide much of the underlying basis for the theoretical structure of island biogeography, have received little direct study. We determined a key population trait-survival-in the Bahamian lizard Anolis sagrei on islands with an experimentally introduced predatory lizard and on neighboring unmanipulated islands. On unmanipulated islands, survival declined with several variables, most notably vegetation height: The island with the shortest vegetation had nearly the highest survival recorded for any lizard. On islands with the introduced predator, which forages mostly on the ground, A. sagrei shifted to taller vegetation; unlike on unmanipulated islands, its survival was very low on islands with the shortest vegetation but was higher on the others. Thus, species introduction radically changed a resident species' relation of survival to a key island-biogeographical variable.

The role of behaviour in evolutionary change has long been debated. On the one hand, behavioural changes may expose individuals to new selective pressures by altering the way that organisms interact with the environment, thus driving evolutionary divergence. Alternatively, behaviour can act to retard evolutionary change: by altering behavioural patterns in the face of new environmental conditions, organisms can minimize exposure to new selective pressures. This constraining influence of behaviour has been put forward as an explanation for evolutionary stasis within lineages and niche conservatism within clades. Nonetheless, the hypothesis that behavioural change prevents natural selection from operating in new environments has never been experimentally tested. We conducted a controlled and replicated experimental study of selection in entirely natural populations; we demonstrate that lizards alter their habitat use in the presence of an introduced predator, but that these behavioural shifts do not prevent patterns of natural selection from changing in experimental populations.