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To reduce eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, all nine surrounding countries have agreed upon reduction targets in the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Yet, monitoring sites and model concepts for decision support are few. To provide one more tool for analysis of water and nutrient fluxes in the Baltic Sea basin, the HYPE model has been applied to the region (called Balt-HYPE). It was used here for experimenting with land-based remedial measures and future climate projections to quantify the impacts of these on water and nutrient loads to the sea. The results suggest that there is a possibility to reach the BSAP nutrient reduction targets by 2100, and that climate change may both aggravate and help in some aspects. Uncertainties in the model results are large, mainly due to the spread of the climate model projections, but also due to the hydrological model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper reviews 17 measures to reduce phosphorus leakage from Swedish agriculture to surface waters. Our aim is to evaluate the possible contribution from agriculture to achieve environmental goals including the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Using a regional approach integrating the variability in field specific characteristics, typical costs and national potential for the included measures may be estimated without identifying, e.g., suitable individual fields for implementation. The result may be helpful to select suitable measures but may also influence the design of environmental targets before they are determined. We find that the cheapest measures are reduced phosphorus content in animal food and fertilizer application supervision in pig farms, both measures with annual potentials of around 50t each, and costs of €7 to €11kg−1 yr−1. The total potential of the listed measures is an annual phosphorus reduction to surface waters of 242t. If the most expensive measures are excluded (>€1000kg−1 yr−1) and including retention in lakes the phosphorus transport to the sea could be reduced by 165tyr−1. This amount can be compared with the Swedish commitment in the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) to reduce input to the Baltic Proper by 290tyr−1. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]