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The Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta (GBMD) located in the head of the Bay of Bengal is regularly affected by severe tropical cyclones frequently. The GBMD covers the Bangladesh coast, which is one of the most vulnerable areas in the world due to cyclone-induced storm surges. More than 30% of the total country's population lives on the Bangladesh coast. Hence, it is crucial to understand the underlying processes that modulate the storm surge height in the GBMD. A barotropic numerical 3D model setup is established by using Delft3D and SWAN to investigate a cyclone-induced storm surge event. The model is calibrated and validated for Cyclone Sidr in 2007 and applied to six idealized cyclonic scenarios. Numerical experiments with different coupling configurations are performed to distinguish the contribution of wind, tides, waves, and wave–current interactions (WCI) on the storm surge height. Results show that the wind-driven setup is the dominant contributor to the storm surge height during cyclonic events. Based on the tidal phase and wind direction, the interaction between tide and wind can increase or decrease the magnitude of the storm surge height. Finally, considering the wind-driven wave may increase the surge height up to 0.3 m along the coastline through a strong wave setup. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Indian Ocean is a region with a high coastal population and a low-lying delta, making it a high-risk region for tropical cyclone impacts. A 30-year period from 1989–2018 has been used to examine the TC landfalling exposure in the North Indian Ocean and its changes by considering 30 years of IBTrACs data, ERA5 atmospheric data, and 20 years of TRMM and DAV data. A total of 185 TCs made landfall in the NIO during the 30-year period with the majority of the TCs making landfall during the pre- and post-monsoon seasons. Rainfall associated with landfalling TCs decreased in the last 10 years of analysis (2009–2018) compared to the first 10 years of available data from 1999–2008. During the monsoon, TC activity is relatively lower compared to the post-monsoon periods, even though higher accumulated TC-associated rainfall typically occurs during the monsoon period, particularly along the eastern coastlines of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The TC winds impact most of the Bay of Bengal coastline, including Sri Lanka. The spatial distribution of landfalling TCs changes with the season, with most of the landfalling activity occurring during the pre- and post-monsoon periods. Interestingly, more recent TC activity has shifted to the northeast India and Bangladesh coasts, suggesting that these regions may be more vulnerable to TC impacts in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]