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Abstract  The effects of climate change on the groundwater systems in the Grote-Nete catchment, Belgium, covering an area of 525 km2, is modeled using wet (greenhouse), cold or NATCC (North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Change) and dry climate scenarios. Low, central and high estimates of temperature changes are adopted for wet scenarios. Seasonal and annual water balance components including groundwater recharge are simulated using the WetSpass model, while mean annual groundwater elevations and discharge are simulated with a steady-state MODFLOW groundwater model. WetSpass results for the wet scenarios show that wet winters and drier summers are expected relative to the present situation. MODFLOW results for wet high scenario show groundwater levels increase by as much as 79 cm, which could affect the distribution and species richness of meadows. Results obtained for cold scenarios depict drier winters and wetter summers relative to the present. The dry scenarios predict dry conditions for the whole year. There is no recharge during the summer, which is mainly attributed to high evapotranspiration rates by forests and low precipitation. Average annual groundwater levels drop by 0.5 m, with maximum of 3.1 m on the eastern part of the Campine Plateau. This could endanger aquatic ecosystem, shrubs, and crop production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the Kalman Filtered Double Constraint Method (DCM-KF) as a technique to estimate the hydraulic conductivities in the grid blocks of a groundwater flow model. The DCM is based on two forward runs with the same initial grid block conductivities, but with alternating flux-head conditions specified on parts of the boundary and the wells. These two runs are defined as: (1) the flux run, with specified fluxes (recharge and well abstractions), and (2) the head run, with specified heads (measured in piezometers). Conductivities are then estimated as the initial conductivities multiplied by the fluxes obtained from the flux run and divided by the fluxes obtained from the head run. The DCM is easy to implement in combination with existing models (e.g., MODFLOW). Sufficiently accurate conductivities are obtained after a few iterations. Because of errors in the specified head-flux couples, repeated estimation under varying hydrological conditions results in different conductivities. A time-independent estimate of the conductivities and their inaccuracy can be obtained by a simple linear KF with modest computational requirements. For the Kleine Nete catchment, Belgium, the DCM-KF yields sufficiently accurate calibrated conductivities. The method also results in distinguishing regions where the head-flux observations influence the calibration from areas where it is not able to influence the hydraulic conductivity., (© 2014, National Ground Water Association.)