1. A Study on Market Arrivals, Price Behavior and Forecasting of Paddy in Bangarpet APMC of Kolar District, Karnataka.
- Author
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AHMED, SYED RIZWAN, REDDY, T. N. VENKATA, GANAPATHY, M. S., and IRFAN, SHAIK MOHAMMAD
- Subjects
PRICES ,BOX-Jenkins forecasting ,CITIES & towns ,ECONOMIC statistics ,FORECASTING - Abstract
This study has been undertaken in APMC, Bangarpet taluk which has highest market arrivals of paddy in Kolar District of Karnataka. The study focused on assessment of market arrivals, prices behavior and forecasting of paddy. The study is based on secondary data on market arrivals and prices of paddy collected from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Bengaluru and Krishimaratavahini as well as records maintained in APMC. The results of the study revealed that the extent of variability in arrivals of paddy in APMC yard of Bangarpet was shown highest during the month of December followed by May. Where as lowest arrivals were recorded during October. The prices of paddy in APMC yard were recorded highest in November and December, whereas the lowest prices were prevailed in April and May. The Box-Jenkins model is applied and it is concerned with fitting of a mixed Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to a given set of time series data. ARIMA models were used to study market fluctuations with advantage of this model lies in its ability to quantify random variations present in time series. Seasonal ARIMA were used to quantify the variation to predict the future arrivals and prices of paddy. Forecasting predicted that the increasing trend in arrivals and prices of paddy. There is no price change over the years although the variations in monthly market arrivals in the APMC, Bangarpet. Based on the findings of the study, it can be concluded that market intermediaries should adopt modern technology in rice value chain for more income. The farmers and rice millers skilled in processing and retailing can select for value addition and rice mills should concentrate on more investment in paddy processing units in Bangarpet to enhance availability, accessibility and selling branded packages of rice to neighboring towns and cities for realizing higher incomes in rice business. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023