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The article presents a study that discusses the historical trends of rainfall and runoff in the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia and Sudan from 1964 to 2003. The study is undertaken through a rainfall-runoff model that analyzed the causes of the observed trends. Results show that despite no significant trend in the average rainfall both seasonal and basin-wide, significant increases in discharge during rainy season from June to September were observed at all three stations.

The article focuses on a study in Blue Nile River which examines the development of simple hydrology and erosion models through the use of saturation excess runoff principles and interflow processes. It states that a water balance approach is used by dividing the landscape into variable saturated areas, exposed rock and hillslopes. It notes that available precipitation and potential evaporation data and a minimum of calibration parameters are used to couple the model with erosion model.

Summary In response to anthropogenic disturbances, alluvial rivers adjust their geometry. The alluvial river channels in the upper Blue Nile basin have been disturbed by human-induced factors since a longtime. This paper examines channel adjustment along a 38-km stretch of the Gumara River which drains towards Lake Tana and then to the Blue Nile. Over a 50 years period, agriculture developed rapidly in the catchment and flooding of the alluvial plain has become more frequent in recent times. The objectives of this study were to document the changes in channel planform and cross-section of the Gumara River and to investigate whether the changes could have contributed to the frequent flooding or vice versa. Two sets of aerial photographs (1957 and 1980) were scanned, and then orthorectified. Recent channel planform information was extracted from SPOT images of 2006 and Google Earth. Channel planform and bed morphology (vertical changes) were determined for these nearly 50 years period. The vertical changes were determined based on aggradation along a permanent structure, historic information on river cross-sections at a hydrological gauging station, and field observations. The results indicate that the lower reach of Gumara near its mouth has undergone major planform changes. A delta with approx. 1.12 km 2 of emerged land was created between 1957 and 1980 and an additional 1 km 2 of land has been added between 1980 and 2006. The sinuosity of the river changed only slightly: negatively (−1.1% i.e. meandering decreased) for the period from 1957 to 1980 and positively (+3.0%) for the period 1980–2006. Comparison of cross-sections at the hydrological gauging station showed that the deepest point in the river bed aggraded by 2.91 m for the period 1963–2009. The importance of sediment deposition in the stream and on its banks is related to land degradation in the upper catchment, and to artificial rising of Lake Tana level that creates a backwater effect and sediment deposition in Gumara River. Direct anthropogenic impacts (irrigation activities and building of dykes along the river banks) have contributed to the huge deposition in the river bed. Where the abstraction of water for irrigation is intensive, seepage water through the banks has contributed to river bank failure. In general, this study showed that changes to the planform at the mouth of the river and to the riverbed level are substantial. Moreover, the study indicated that the flood carrying capacity of the Gumara River channel has diminished in recent times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate prediction of hydrological models requires accurate spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. In developing countries, the network of observation stations for rainfall is sparse and unevenly distributed. Satellite-based products have the potential to overcome this shortcoming. The objective of this study is to compare the advantages and the limitation of commonly used high-resolution satellite rainfall products (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 version 7) as input to hydrological models as compared to sparsely and densely populated network of rain gauges. We used two (semi-distributed) hydrological models that performed well in the Ethiopian highlands: Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) and Parameter Efficient Distributed (PED). The rainfall products were tested in two watersheds: Gilgel Abay with a relatively dense network of rain gauge stations and Main Beles with a relatively scarce network, both are located in the Upper Blue Nile Basin. The results indicated that TMPA 3B42 was not be able to capture the gauged rainfall temporal variation in both watersheds and was not tested further. CFSR over predicted the rainfall pattern slightly. Both the gauged and the CFSR reanalysis data were able to reproduce the streamflow well for both models and both watershed when calibrated separately to the discharge data. Using the calibrated model parameters of gauged rainfall dataset together with the CFSR rainfall, the stream discharge for the Gilgel Abay was reproduced well but the discharge of the Main Beles was captured poorly partly because of the poor accuracy of the gauged rainfall dataset with none of the rainfall stations located inside the watershed. HBV model performed slightly better than the PED model, but the parameter values of the PED could be identified with the features of the landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]