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Introduction: Botswana offers publicly financed HIV treatment to citizens, but not migrants, who comprised about 7% of the population in 2016. However, HIV incidence is not declining in proportion to Botswana's HIV response. In 2018, Botswana had 86% of citizens living with HIV diagnosed, 95% of people diagnosed on treatment, and 95% viral suppression among those on treatment. We hypothesised that continued exclusion of migrants is hampering reduction of HIV incidence in Botswana. Hence, we modelled the impact of including migrants in Botswana's HIV response on achieving 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 Fast-Track targets by 2020 and 2030, respectively. Methods: The Optima HIV model, with demographic, epidemiological, and behavioural inputs, was applied to citizens of and migrants to Botswana. Projections of new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths were compared for three scenarios to the end of 2030: (1) continued status quo for HIV testing and treatment coverage, and maintenance of levels of linkage to care, loss to follow-up, and viral suppression among citizens and migrants (baseline); (2) with scaled-up budget, optimised to achieve 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 Fast-Track targets by 2020 and 2030, respectively, for citizens only; and (3) scaled-up optimised budget to achieve these targets for both citizens and migrants. Results: A baseline of 172,000 new HIV infections and 8,400 HIV-related deaths was projected over 2020–2030. Scaling up to achieve targets among citizens only averted an estimated 48,000 infections and 1,700 deaths. Achieving targets for both citizens and migrants averted 16,000 (34%) more infections and 442 (26%) more deaths. Scaling up for both populations reduced numbers of new HIV infections and deaths by 44% and 39% respectively compared with 2010 levels. Treating migrants when scaling up in both populations was estimated to cost USD 74 million over 2020–2030. Conclusions: Providing HIV services to migrants in Botswana could lead to further reductions in HIV incidence and deaths. However, even with an increased, optimised budget that achieves 95-95-95 targets for both citizens and migrants by 2030, the 90% incidence reduction target for 2020 will be missed. Further efficiencies and innovations will be needed to meet HIV targets in Botswana. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Introduction: UNAIDS 90‐90‐90 targets and Fast‐Track commitments are presented as precursors to ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030, through effecting a 90% reduction in new HIV infections and AIDS‐related deaths from 2010 levels (HIV epidemic control). Botswana, a low to middle‐income country with the third‐highest HIV prevalence, and Australia, a low‐prevalence high‐income country with an epidemic concentrated among men who have sex with men (MSM), have made significant strides towards achieving the UNAIDS 90‐90‐90 targets. These two countries provide lessons for different epidemic settings. This paper discusses the lessons that can be drawn from Botswana and Australia with respect to their success in HIV testing, treatment, viral suppression and other HIV prevention strategies for HIV epidemic control. Discussion: Botswana and Australia are on target to achieving the 90‐90‐90 targets for HIV epidemic control, made possible by comprehensive HIV testing and treatment programmes in the two countries. As of 2015, 70% of all people assumed to be living with HIV had viral suppression in Botswana and Australia. However, HIV incidence remains above one per cent in the general population in Botswana and in MSM in Australia. The two countries have demonstrated that rapid HIV testing that is accessible and targeted at key and vulnerable populations is required in order to continue identifying new HIV infections. All citizens living with HIV in both countries are eligible for antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral load monitoring through government‐funded programmes. Notwithstanding their success in reducing HIV transmission to date, programmes in both countries must continue to be supported at current levels to maintain epidemic suppression. Scaled HIV testing, linkage to care, universal ART, monitoring patients on treatment over and above strengthened HIV prevention strategies (e.g. male circumcision and pre‐exposure prophylaxis) will all continue to require funding. Conclusions: The progress that Botswana and Australia have made towards meeting the 90‐90‐90 targets is commendable. However, in order to reduce HIV incidence significantly towards 2030, there is a need for sustained HIV testing, linkage to care and high treatment coverage. Botswana and Australia provide useful lessons for developing countries with generalized epidemics and high‐income countries with concentrated epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the study was to evaluate the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment cascade and mortality in migrants and citizens living with HIV in Botswana.Retrospective 2002 to 2016 cohort study using electronic medical records from a single center managing a high migrant case load.Records for 768 migrants and 3274 citizens living with HIV were included. Maipelo Trust, a nongovernmental organization, funded care for most migrants (70%); most citizens (85%) had personal health insurance. Seventy percent of migrants and 93% of citizens had received antiretroviral therapy (ART). At study end, 44% and 27% of migrants and citizens, respectively were retained in care at the clinic (P < .001). Among the 35% and 60% of migrants and citizens on ART respectively with viral load (VL) results in 2016, viral suppression was lower among migrants (82%) than citizens (95%) (P < .001). Citizens on ART had a median 157-unit [95% confidence interval (CI) 122-192] greater increase in CD4+ T-cell count (last minus first recorded count) than migrants after adjusting for baseline count (P < .001). Five-year survival was 92% (95% CI = 87.6-94.8) for migrants and 96% (95% CI = 95.4-97.2) for citizens. Migrants had higher mortality than citizens after entry into care (hazard ratio = 2.3, 95% CI = 1.34-3.89, P = .002) and ART initiation (hazard ratio = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.24-3.78, P = .01).Fewer migrants than citizens living with HIV in Botswana were on ART, accessed VL monitoring, achieved viral suppression, and survived. The HIV treatment cascade appears suboptimal for migrants, undermining local 90-90-90 targets. These results highlight the need to include migrants in mainstream-funded HIV treatment programs, as microepidemics can slow HIV epidemic control.