Search

The Brazilian cities as well as many of the large urban centers in the world continue to expand, increasing the demand for mobility and transport, while, at the same time, the same cities are investing in greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation to avoid climate change. Brazil's urbanization rate increased from 26% in 1940 to almost 70% in 1980. During this period, the Brazilian population tripled and the urban population multiplied by seven. In 2010, the transport sector in São Paulo accounted for 71% of the total emissions released by the energy sector. Ethanol has been considered a fuel with less greenhouse gas emissions, when compared with fossil fuels. However, ethanol production would have to double to meet the expected demand. Electric vehicles (EVs) market is expanding around the world, and is also an option to reduce the transport emissions, if powered by clean electricity. To assess whether the adoption of EVs might bring more benefits than the current ethanol, we develop prospective scenarios supported by the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) simulation tool, taking a bottom-up tank-to-wheel approach to consider the CO2emissions of car in São Paulo. The scenario considering a substitution of 25% of gasoline-powered cars by EV in 2030 showed a reduction in energy consumption and CO2emissions, around 15% and 26% respectively in that year in comparison with 2015. We discuss the interplay between ethanol and EV, also considering emission coefficients from life cycle analysis conducted in Brazil, and concluded EV will have higher positive impact on climate change mitigation than ethanol. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major challenge for humankind is to reduce global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to avoid the most harmful impacts of climate change. The transport sector is responsible for almost 1/4 of the world's energy-related emissions, with road transportation representing around 1/5 of the fuel consumption. Electric vehicles (EVs) may help to reduce CO2 emissions, but their diffusion is uncertain due to market barriers. This paper investigates the electric vehicle (EV), which has a smaller ecological footprint, as an alternative capable of meeting the needs of personal transport in Brazil. To carry out this evaluation, the study considers socio-techno-economic and political-environmental-innovation aspects to assess the challenges and opportunities facing the adoption of electric vehicles. The analysis was carried out based on a survey administered to a wide range of stakeholders. A SWOT analysis was performed to understand the most critical factors affecting the future of EVs in Brazil, which is a top-ten automotive manufacturer worldwide and a leader in sugar cane ethanol production. The results suggest light-duty electric vehicles (LDEV) as a first option for low-carbon passengers' mobility and that EVs expansion will require market regulation, incentive policies and adequate charging infrastructure. Both consumers and society in general will benefit most from the expansion of EVs due to low emissions and total cost of ownership (TCO). The results show where decision-makers should focus their attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]