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The global economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, and worldwide inflation surge may have a profound impact on poverty-related infectious diseases, especially in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this work, we developed mathematical models for HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis (TB) in Brazil, one of the largest and most unequal LMICs, incorporating poverty rates and temporal dynamics to evaluate and forecast the impact of the increase in poverty due to the economic crisis, and estimate the mitigation effects of alternative poverty-reduction policies on the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB up to 2030. Three main intervention scenarios were simulated—an economic crisis followed by the implementation of social protection policies with none, moderate, or strong coverage—evaluating the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB. Without social protection policies to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis, the burden of HIV/AIDS and TB would be significantly larger over the next decade, being responsible in 2030 for an incidence 13% (95% CI 4–31%) and mortality 21% (95% CI 12–34%) higher for HIV/AIDS, and an incidence 16% (95% CI 10–25%) and mortality 22% (95% CI 15–31%) higher for TB, if compared with a scenario of moderate social protection. These differences would be significantly larger if compared with a scenario of strong social protection, resulting in more than 230,000 cases and 34,000 deaths from AIDS and TB averted over the next decade in Brazil. Using a comprehensive approach, that integrated economic forecasting with mathematical and epidemiological models, we were able to show the importance of implementing robust social protection policies to avert a significant increase in incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB during the current global economic downturn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The risk factors associated with canine visceral leishmaniosis (CVL) in Brazil are unclear and controversial. The objectives of this systematic review and meta-analysis were to identify the best evidence available in this field and to determine the gaps in existing knowledge. Literature searches were carried out using four databases, the reference lists within articles, and references provided by experts in the field. Theoretical discussions or separate and independent meta-analyses of p-values or of effect sizes were used to pool information about each variable. Thirty-six articles were selected for detailed review, including 31 cross-sectional, two ecological and three cohort studies. The variables showing significant association with CVL were short hair, purebred, peri-domestic restricted (as compared with domestic-restricted dogs), and presence of green areas adjacent to home. The occurrence of CVL was also associated with the presence of domestic fowl in the home environment, with free dogs (as compared with restrained dogs), with male gender and with dogs >1 or 2 years of age, although these associations were not statistically significant. Due to the small number of publications, consistent results could not be obtained concerning the role of other factors. Most studies did not describe the criteria of eligibility and the process of selection of participants in sufficient detail and employed only one diagnostic test as proof of infection. Few studies controlled for confounding variables. No statistical evidence of publication bias was detected, but a great deal of information contained in the primary articles was lost because the results were not adequately described. The results of this review contribute to a better understanding of CVL and should assist in optimizing the development and implementation of control policies. Continuous actions, prioritizing dogs at higher risk and areas with higher abundance of green vegetation, together with policies to promote responsible dog ownership are mandatory. Problems concerning study design and data analysis described in the present study need to be taken into consideration in future studies. These must follow clear procedures to select participants and utilize standardized, valid and reliable diagnostic methods. The development of multivariate models and the use of the STROBE statement for description of the results should also be encouraged. Further research should investigate the patterns identified and prioritize CVL-related factors that have not been fully recognized or elucidated. Finally, ecological and cohort studies of CVL and investigations in other countries of Latin America are urgently required. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: Dengue is a reportable disease in Brazil; however, pregnancy has been included in the application form of the Brazilian notification information system only after 2006. To estimate the severity of maternal dengue infection, the available data that were compiled from January 2007 to December 2008 by the official surveillance information system of the city of Rio de Janeiro were reviewed. Methods and Principal Findings: During the study period, 151,604 cases of suspected dengue infection were reported. Five hundred sixty-one women in their reproductive age (15–49 years) presented with dengue infection; 99 (18.1%) pregnant and 447 (81.9%) non-pregnant women were analyzed. Dengue cases were categorized using the 1997 WHO classification system, and DHF/DSS were considered severe disease. The Mann-Whitney test was used to compare maternal age, according to gestational period, and severity of disease. A chi-square test was utilized to evaluate the differences in the proportion of dengue severity between pregnant and non-pregnant women. Univariate analysis was performed to compare outcome variables (severe dengue and non-severe dengue) and explanatory variables (pregnancy, gestational age and trimester) using the Wald test. A multivariate analysis was performed to assess the independence of statistically significant variables in the univariate analysis. A p-value<0.05 was considered statistically significant. A higher percentage of severe dengue infection among pregnant women was found, p = 0.0001. Final analysis demonstrated that pregnant women are 3.4 times more prone to developing severe dengue (OR: 3.38; CI: 2.10–5.42). Mortality among pregnant women was superior to non-pregnant women. Conclusion: Pregnant women have an increased risk of developing severe dengue infection and dying of dengue. Author Summary: Dengue represents a major worldwide public health problem. According to the WHO, up to 50 million dengue infections occur each year. The occurrence of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever has increased in Brazil, in part due to the simultaneous circulation of DENV-1, DENV-2 and DENV-3. Although a primary infection with one serotype confers a partial or transient immunity against other serotypes, any subsequent infections harbor the risk of increased morbidity/mortality. Several case reports have been published regarding maternal and fetal outcomes from dengue infection, but it is still inconclusive if pregnancy is associated with severity. To estimate the severity of maternal dengue infection, available data that were compiled from 2007 to 2008 by the official surveillance information system of the city of Rio de Janeiro were reviewed. The cases of dengue were analyzed using the 1997 WHO classification. Pregnant women were 3.4 times more prone to developing severe dengue than non-pregnant women. Mortality among pregnant women was superior to non-pregnant women. The increased risk of severe outcomes in pregnant women merits further attention to effective public health and medical interventions that will aid in avoiding morbidity/fatalities within this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]