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Nature‐based climate solutions are a vital component of many climate mitigation strategies, including California's, which aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. Most carbon offsets in California's cap‐and‐trade program come from improved forest management (IFM) projects. Since 2012, various landowners have set up IFM projects following the California Air Resources Board's IFM protocol. As many of these projects approach their 10th year, we now have the opportunity to assess their effectiveness, identify best practices, and suggest improvements toward future protocol revisions. In this study, we used remote sensing‐based datasets to evaluate the carbon trends and harvest histories of 37 IFM projects in California. Despite some current limitations and biases, these datasets can be used to quantify carbon accumulation and harvest rates in offset project lands relative to nearby similar "control" lands before and after the projects began. Five lines of evidence suggest that the carbon accumulated in offset projects to date has generally not been additional to what might have otherwise occurred: (1) most forests in northwestern California have been accumulating carbon since at least the mid‐1980s and continue to accumulate carbon, whether enrolled in offset projects or not; (2) harvest rates were high in large timber company project lands before IFM initiation, suggesting they are earning carbon credits for forests in recovery; (3) projects are often located on lands with higher densities of low‐timber‐value species; (4) carbon accumulation rates have not yet increased on lands that enroll as offset projects, relative to their pre‐enrollment levels; and (5) harvest rates have not decreased on most project lands since offset project initiation. These patterns suggest that the current protocol should be improved to robustly measure and reward additionality. In general, our framework of geospatial analyses offers an important and independent means to evaluate the effectiveness of the carbon offsets program, especially as these data products continue improving and as offsets receive attention as a climate mitigation strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon offsets are widely used by individuals, corporations, and governments to mitigate their greenhouse gas emissions on the assumption that offsets reflect equivalent climate benefits achieved elsewhere. These climate‐equivalence claims depend on offsets providing real and additional climate benefits beyond what would have happened, counterfactually, without the offsets project. Here, we evaluate the design of California's prominent forest carbon offsets program and demonstrate that its climate‐equivalence claims fall far short on the basis of directly observable evidence. By design, California's program awards large volumes of offset credits to forest projects with carbon stocks that exceed regional averages. This paradigm allows for adverse selection, which could occur if project developers preferentially select forests that are ecologically distinct from unrepresentative regional averages. By digitizing and analyzing comprehensive offset project records alongside detailed forest inventory data, we provide direct evidence that comparing projects against coarse regional carbon averages has led to systematic over‐crediting of 30.0 million tCO2e (90% CI: 20.5–38.6 million tCO2e) or 29.4% of the credits we analyzed (90% CI: 20.1%–37.8%). These excess credits are worth an estimated $410 million (90% CI: $280–$528 million) at recent market prices. Rather than improve forest management to store additional carbon, California's forest offsets program creates incentives to generate offset credits that do not reflect real climate benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We test the relationship between canopy photosynthesis and reflected near‐infrared radiation from vegetation across a range of functional (photosynthetic pathway and capacity) and structural conditions (leaf area index, fraction of green and dead leaves, canopy height, reproductive stage, and leaf angle inclination), weather conditions, and years using a network of field sites from across central California. We based our analysis on direct measurements of canopy photosynthesis, with eddy covariance, and measurements of reflected near‐infrared and red radiation from vegetation, with light‐emitting diode sensors. And we interpreted the observed relationships between photosynthesis and reflected near‐infrared radiation using simulations based on the multilayer, biophysical model, CanVeg. Measurements of reflected near‐infrared radiation were highly correlated with measurements of canopy photosynthesis on half‐hourly, daily, seasonal, annual, and decadal time scales across the wide range of function and structure and weather conditions. Slopes of the regression between canopy photosynthesis and reflected near‐infrared radiation were greatest for the fertilized and irrigated C4 corn crop, intermediate for the C3 tules on nutrient‐rich organic soil and nitrogen fixing alfalfa, and least for the native annual grasslands and oak savanna on nutrient‐poor, mineral soils. Reflected near‐infrared radiation from vegetation has several advantages over other remotely sensed vegetation indices that are used to infer canopy photosynthesis; it does not saturate at high leaf area indices, it is insensitive to the presence of dead legacy vegetation, the sensors are inexpensive, and the reflectance signal is strong. Hence, information on reflected near‐infrared radiation from vegetation may have utility in monitoring carbon assimilation in carbon sequestration projects or on microsatellites orbiting Earth for precision agriculture applications. Key Points: Reflected near‐infrared radiation is a strong proxy for canopy photosynthesisThis proxy works for a wide range of ecosystem structure and functionThe method has promise to be used for a variety of applications relating to carbon and water use [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]