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The steep, tectonically active terrain along the Central California (USA) coast is well known to produce deadly and destructive debris flows. However, the extent to which fire affects debris-flow susceptibility in this region is an open question. We documented the occurrence of postfire debris floods and flows following the landfall of a storm that delivered intense rainfall across multiple burn areas. We used this inventory to evaluate the predictive performance of the US Geological Survey M1 likelihood model, a tool that presently underlies the emergency assessment of postfire debris-flow hazards in the western USA. To test model performance, we used the threat score skill statistic and found that the rainfall thresholds estimated by the M1 model for the Central California coast performed similarly to training (Southern California) and testing (Intermountain West) data associated with the original model calibration. Model performance decreased when differentiating between "minor" and "major" postfire hydrologic response types, which weigh effects on human life and infrastructure. Our results underscore that the problem of false positives is a major challenge for developing accurate rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of postfire debris flows. As wildfire activity increases throughout the western USA, so too will the demand for the assessment of postfire debris-flow hazards. We conclude that additional collection of field-verified inventories of postfire hydrologic response will be critical to prioritize which model variables may be suitable candidates for regional calibration or replacement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measuring river response to dam removal affords a rare, important opportunity to study fluvial response to sediment pulses on a large field scale. We present a before–after/control–impact study of the Carmel River, California, measuring fluvial geomorphic and grain‐size evolution over 8 years, six of which postdated removal of a 32 m‐high dam (one of the largest dams removed worldwide) and included 11 flow events exceeding the 2‐year flood magnitude. We find that the reservoir‐sediment pulse following dam removal was relatively small (97 000 ± 24 000 t over 4 years), owing to deliberate reservoir‐sediment stabilization. Scaled to the size of the Carmel River watershed and compared against long‐term bedrock denudation rates, the post‐dam‐removal sediment release was slightly less than the annualized long‐term sediment export from this basin. New sediment transited >30 km to the river mouth in less than 2 years, assisted by floods 2 and 4 years after dam removal. The sediment pulse fined the downstream riverbed while causing mostly low‐magnitude bed‐elevation changes: commonly 0.5 to 1 m or smaller, occurring as discontinuous sediment patches or interstitial deposits, aside from the filling and subsequent partial scour of deep pools. There was no major geomorphic reset downstream from the dam site. Geomorphic changes were driven almost entirely by flow rather than by the modest increase in sediment supply, in contrast to recent examples from other large dam removals. The relatively minor disturbance caused by dam removal on the Carmel River is likely analogous to many future dam removals: a relatively small sediment pulse after deliberate limitation of reservoir‐sediment erosion, and with an upstream dam remaining in place. Thus, a large dam removal need not lead to major downstream impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing wildfire and declining snowpacks in mountain regions threaten water availability. We combine satellite‐based fire detections with snow seasonality classifications to examine fire activity in California's seasonal and ephemeral snow zones. We find a nearly tenfold increase in fire activity during 2020–2021 versus 2001–2019. Accumulation season broadband snow albedo declined 25%–71% at two burned sites (2021 and 2022) according to in‐situ data relative to un‐burned conditions, with greater declines associated with increased burn severity. By enhancing snowpack susceptibility to melt, both decreased snow albedo and canopy drove midwinter melt during a multi‐week dry spell in 2022. Despite similar meteorological conditions in December–February 2013 and 2022–linked to persistent high pressure weather regimes–minimal melt occurred in 2013. Post‐fire snowpack differences are confirmed with satellite measurements. With growing geographical overlap between wildfire and snow, our findings suggest California's snowpack is increasingly vulnerable to the compounding effects of dry spells and wildfire. Plain Language Summary: Satellite fire detections indicate substantial increases in wildfire activity in California's snow‐covered landscapes during 2020 and 2021, suggesting wildfire is increasingly altering mountain hydrology. During 2022, a multi‐week mid‐winter drought, or dry spell, occurred. A meteorologically‐similar dry spell occurred in 2013, and the 2022 event provides a test case to examine how post‐fire changes (canopy loss and deposition of burned dark material on snowpack) alter snowmelt patterns. Using field observations, weather station data, and satellite remote sensing of snow, we find large reductions in snow albedo and canopy cover drove rapid melt during the 2022 dry spell in burned areas whereas during 2013, minimal melt occurred. The societal connection between mountains and humans will be strained as mountains face increasing climate‐related stressors. Midwinter drought, snow loss, and increasing wildfire are expectations of a warming world. Addressing these challenges requires innovative water and forest management paradigms. Our findings motivate additional research into assessing and planning for post‐fire hydrologic changes in snow‐dominated landscapes as both wildfire and dry spells will increase in frequency with climate warming. Key Points: A 9.8x increase in satellite fire detections in California's snow zones in 2020–2021 versus 2001–2019 implies growing overlap in fire and snowPost‐fire accumulation season broadband snow albedo declined 25%–71%, driving fewer snow‐covered days and lower snow‐cover fractionCompared with the meteorologically similar 2013 dry spell, albedo and canopy declines led to rapid midwinter melt in 2022 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfire and post-fire rainfall have resounding effects on hillslope processes and sediment yields of mountainous landscapes. Yet, it remains unclear how fire–flood sequences influence downstream coastal littoral systems. It is timely to examine terrestrial–coastal connections because climate change is increasing the frequency, size, and intensity of wildfires, altering precipitation rates, and accelerating sea-level rise; and these factors can be understood as contrasting accretionary and erosive agents for coastal systems. Here we provide new satellite-derived shoreline measurements of Big Sur, California and show how river sediment discharge significantly influenced shoreline positions during the past several decades. A 2016 wildfire followed by record precipitation increased sediment discharge in the Big Sur River and resulted in almost half of the total river sediment load of the past 50 years (~ 2.2 of ~ 4.8 Mt). Roughly 30% of this river sediment was inferred to be littoral-grade sand and was incorporated into the littoral cell, causing the widest beaches in the 37-year satellite record and spreading downcoast over timescales of years. Hence, the impact of fire–flood events on coastal sediment budgets may be substantial, and these impacts may increase with time considering projected intensification of wildfires and extreme rain events under global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floods play a critical role in geomorphic change, but whether peak magnitude, duration, volume, or frequency determines the resulting magnitude of erosion and deposition is a question often proposed in geomorphic effectiveness studies. This study investigated that question using digital elevation model differencing to compare and contrast three hydrologically distinct epochs of topographic change spanning 18 years in the 37‐km gravel–cobble lower Yuba River in northern California, USA. Scour and fill were analysed by volume at segment and geomorphic reach scales. Each epoch's hydrology was characterized using 15‐min and daily averaged flow to obtain distinct peak and recurrence, duration, and volume metrics. Epochs 1 (1999–2008) and 3 (2014–2017) were wetter than average with large floods reaching 3206 and 2466 m3/s, respectively, though of different flood durations. Epoch 2 (2008–2014) was a drought period with only four brief moderate floods (peak of 1245 m3/s). Total volumetric changes showed that major geomorphic response occurred primarily during large flood events; however, total scour and net export of sediment varied greatly, with 20 times more export in epoch 3 compared to epoch 1. The key finding was that greater peak discharge was not correlated with greater net and total erosion; differences were better explained by duration and volume above floodway‐filling stage. This finding highlights the importance of considering flood duration and volume, along with peak, to assess flood magnitude in the context of flood management, frequency analysis, and resulting geomorphic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfire risk has increased in recent decades over many regions, due to warming climate and other factors. Increased sediment export from recently burned landscapes can jeopardize downstream infrastructure and water resources, but physical landscape response to fire has not been quantified for some at‐risk areas, including much of northern California, USA. We measured sediment yield from three watersheds (13–29 km2) that drain to Whiskeytown Lake, California, within the area burned by the 2018 Carr Fire. Structure‐from‐Motion photogrammetry on aerial images combined with sonar bathymetric mapping of submerged areas indicated first‐year post‐fire sediment yields of 4,080 ± 598 t/km2 (Brandy Creek), 2,700 ± 527 t/km2 (Boulder Creek), and 305 ± 58.0 t/km2 (Whiskey Creek)—some of the first post‐fire yields measured in northern California and 64, 42, and 4.8 times greater than pre‐fire yields, respectively. These were measured during a wet year and resulted largely from rilling erosion and fluvial sediment transport, without post‐fire debris flows. Rilling preferentially developed in contact with dirt roads, aided by thin soils and exposed bedrock, and on slopes vegetated by chaparral pre‐fire. The second post‐fire year (a dry year) was characterized by fluvial reworking and delta progradation of the first‐year deposits and relatively little new sediment export. First‐year sedimentation of 111,000 m3 represented minor loss of storage capacity in Whiskeytown Lake but would be detrimental to smaller reservoirs; in general, increased sediment yields from western US watersheds as fire and extreme rainfall increase will likely pose risks to water quality and storage. Plain Language Summary: Climate change is increasing wildfires across many regions, including California. Burned landscapes typically produce large amounts of sediment after a fire, which reduces water quality, decreases space for water storage in reservoirs, and sometimes produces hazardous debris flows. We investigated landscape response after the 2018 Carr Fire in northern California. Sediment yield measured in the first year after the fire (a wet year) varied among three study watersheds, ranging from one to two orders of magnitude greater than before the fire. The primary means of sediment mobilization was by water flowing over the land surface, instead of by landslides. These results will aid prediction of future fire response elsewhere in northern California, a growing research need given the increasing tendency for large fires to affect northern California. Key Points: Aerial photogrammetric and sonar bathymetric mapping quantify sediment volume change for 2 years after the major 2018 Carr Fire, CaliforniaFirst‐year post‐fire sediment yields in three watersheds were 64, 42, and 4.8 times greater than long‐term yields, some of the first post‐fire data from northern CaliforniaHillslope erosion was dominated by rilling rather than landslides; rilling commonly occurred downslope of dirt roads [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Small, steep watersheds are prolific sediment sources from which sediment flux is highly sensitive to climatic changes. Storm intensity and frequency are widely expected to increase during the 21st century, and so assessing the response of small, steep watersheds to extreme rainfall is essential to understanding landscape response to climate change. During record winter rainfall in 2016–2017, the San Lorenzo River, coastal California, had nine flow peaks representing 2–10‐year flood magnitudes. By the third flood, fluvial suspended sediment showed a regime shift to greater and coarser sediment supply, coincident with numerous landslides in the watershed. Even with no singular catastrophic flood, these flows exported more than half as much sediment as had a 100‐year flood 35 years earlier, substantially enlarging the nearshore delta. Annual sediment load in 2017 was an order of magnitude greater than during an average‐rainfall year, and 500‐fold greater than in a recent drought. These anomalous sediment inputs are critical to the coastal littoral system, delivering enough sediment, sometimes over only a few days, to maintain beaches for several years. Future projections of megadroughts punctuated by major atmospheric‐river storm activity suggest that interannual sediment‐yield variations will become more extreme than today in the western USA, with potential consequences for coastal management, ecosystems, and water‐storage capacity. The occurrence of two years with major sediment export over the past 35 years that were not associated with extremes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation suggests caution in interpreting climatic signals from marine sedimentary deposits derived from small, steep, coastal watersheds, to avoid misinterpreting the frequencies of those cycles. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]