Search

Simple Summary: The iconic monarch butterfly has undergone a dramatic decline in western North America since the 1990s, but in recent years has shown a capacity for resilience. This review identifies and investigates the likely drivers of this decline and resilience, and discusses their relative importance from a holistic viewpoint. Pesticides (particularly neonicotinoid insecticides), climate change, and habitat loss are likely to be the prime drivers of contemporary decline and instability in monarch population dynamics. Natural enemies (predators, parasites, and pathogens) are less likely to be a major contributor to contemporary population fluctuations, except on a local scale. Adaptation to changing environmental conditions will be an important component of the ongoing ability of western monarchs to show resilience. Human involvement with monarchs is a good and necessary thing for sustainable conservation, helping to prevent the 'extinction of experience', and the loss of human-nature contact, which has major adverse implications for nature conservation generally. Monarch butterfly populations in western North America suffered a substantial decline, from millions of butterflies overwintering in California in the 1980s to less than 400,000 at the beginning of the 21st century. The introduction of neonicotinoid insecticides in the mid–1990s and their subsequent widespread use appears to be the most likely major factor behind this sudden decline. Habitat loss and unfavorable climates (high temperatures, aridity, and winter storms) have also played important and ongoing roles. These factors kept overwintering populations stable but below 300,000 during 2001–2017. Late winter storm mortality and consequent poor spring reproduction drove winter populations to less than 30,000 butterflies during 2018–2019. Record high temperatures in California during the fall of 2020 appeared to prematurely terminate monarch migration, resulting in the lowest overwintering population (1899) ever recorded. Many migrants formed winter-breeding populations in urban areas. Normal seasonal temperatures in the autumns of 2021 and 2022 enabled overwintering populations to return to around the 300,000 level, characteristic of the previous two decades. Natural enemies (predators, parasitoids, parasites, and pathogens) may be important regional or local drivers at times but they are a consistent and fundamental part of monarch ecology. Human interference (capture, rearing) likely has the least impact on monarch populations. The rearing of monarch caterpillars, particularly by children, is an important human link to nature that has positive ramifications for insect conservation beyond monarch butterflies and should be encouraged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combating the current biodiversity crisis requires the accurate documentation of population responses to human‐induced ecological change. However, our ability to pinpoint population responses to human activities is often limited to the analysis of populations studied well after the fact. Museum collections preserve a record of population responses to anthropogenic change that can provide critical baseline data on patterns of genetic diversity, connectivity, and population structure prior to the onset of human perturbation. Here, we leverage a spatially replicated time series of specimens to document population genomic responses to the destruction of nearly 90% of coastal habitats occupied by the Savannah sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis) in California. We sequenced 219 sparrows collected from 1889 to 2017 across the state of California using an exome capture approach. Spatial–temporal analyses of genetic diversity found that the amount of habitat lost was not predictive of genetic diversity loss. Sparrow populations from southern California historically exhibited lower levels of genetic diversity and experienced the most significant temporal declines in genetic diversity. Despite experiencing the greatest levels of habitat loss, we found that genetic diversity in the San Francisco Bay area remained relatively high. This was potentially related to an observed increase in gene flow into the Bay Area from other populations. While gene flow may have minimized genetic diversity declines, we also found that immigration from inland freshwater‐adapted populations into tidal marsh populations led to the erosion of divergence at loci associated with tidal marsh adaptation. Shifting patterns of gene flow through time in response to habitat loss may thus contribute to negative fitness consequences and outbreeding depression. Together, our results underscore the importance of tracing the genomic trajectories of multiple populations over time to address issues of fundamental conservation concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mature forests provide important wildlife habitat and support critical ecosystem functions globally. Within the dry conifer forests of the western United States, past management and fire exclusion have contributed to forest conditions that are susceptible to increasingly severe wildfire and drought. We evaluated declines in conifer forest cover in the southern Sierra Nevada of California during a decade of record disturbance by using spatially comprehensive forest structure estimates, wildfire perimeter data, and the eDaRT forest disturbance tracking algorithm. Primarily due to the combination of wildfires, drought, and drought‐associated beetle epidemics, 30% of the region's conifer forest extent transitioned to nonforest vegetation during 2011–2020. In total, 50% of mature forest habitat and 85% of high density mature forests either transitioned to lower density forest or nonforest vegetation types. California spotted owl protected activity centers (PAC) experienced greater canopy cover decline (49% of 2011 cover) than non‐PAC areas (42% decline). Areas with high initial canopy cover and without tall trees were most vulnerable to canopy cover declines, likely explaining the disproportionate declines of mature forest habitat and within PACs. Drought and beetle attack caused greater cumulative declines than areas where drought and wildfire mortality overlapped, and both types of natural disturbance far outpaced declines attributable to mechanical activities. Drought mortality that disproportionately affects large conifers is particularly problematic to mature forest specialist species reliant on large trees. However, patches of degraded forests within wildfire perimeters were larger with greater core area than those outside burned areas, and remnant forest habitats were more fragmented within burned perimeters than those affected by drought and beetle mortality alone. The percentage of mature forest that survived and potentially benefited from lower severity wildfire increased over time as the total extent of mature forest declined. These areas provide some opportunity for improved resilience to future disturbances, but strategic management interventions are likely also necessary to mitigate worsening mega‐disturbances. Remaining dry mature forest habitat in California may be susceptible to complete loss in the coming decades without a rapid transition from a conservation paradigm that attempts to maintain static conditions to one that manages for sustainable disturbance dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increased occurrences of drought and fire may be contributing to the loss of biodiverse ecosystems in Mediterranean regions. Specifically, the conversion of diverse native shrublands, such as chaparral, to non‐native annual grassland by fire is of great conservation concern in California. To avoid or slow the loss of chaparral, it is important to understand the underlying causes of landscape conversion. Studies investigating the interaction of multiple potential drivers are particularly crucial to identification of vulnerable areas of the landscape. Here we used aerial imagery to evaluate vegetation transitions between chaparral, sage scrub, grassland, and tree domination and their potential drivers within Ventura County, CA, a strongly Mediterranean climate region. We used random forest algorithms and conditional inference trees to determine the climatic, topographic, and fire‐related variables contributing most to vegetation change. Our results support that chaparral conversion to grass (27% of chaparral plots) is a result of landscape position, fire, and drought acting in tandem. In particular, lower elevation, southwest‐facing slopes that experience a postfire drought are at very high likelihood of conversion to non‐native annual grass. Additionally, our results show that these grasslands, once formed, rarely convert to other community types. Therefore, protecting shrub‐dominated areas that are most likely to convert (low elevation, more southwest‐facing slopes, and less annual precipitation) is crucial to preserving native vegetation diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, habitat loss in coastal marine systems is a major driver of species decline, and estuaries are particularly susceptible to loss. Along the United States Pacific coast, monospecific eelgrass (Zostera marina) beds form the major estuarine vegetated habitat. In Morro Bay, California, eelgrass experienced an unprecedented decline of > 95%, from 139 ha in 2007 to < 6 ha by 2017. Fish populations were compared before and after the eelgrass decline using trawl surveys. Beach seines surveys were also conducted during the post-decline period to characterize species within and outside of remnant eelgrass beds. While the estuary-wide loss of eelgrass did not result in fewer fish or less biomass, it led to changes in species composition. The post-eelgrass decline period was characterized by increases in flatfish (mainly Citharichthys stigmaeus) and staghorn sculpin (Leptocottus armatus), and decreases in habitat specialists including bay pipefish (Syngnathus leptorhynchus) and shiner perch (Cymatogaster aggregata). There were similar trends inside and outside of remnant eelgrass patches. These findings support evidence across multiple ecosystems suggesting that the predominance of habitat-specialists predicts whether or not habitat loss leads to an overall decline in fish abundance. In addition, loss of critical habitats across seascapes can restrict population connectivity and lead to range contraction. For bay pipefish, the loss of eelgrass in Morro Bay is likely to create a population biogeographic divide. Currently, Morro Bay is dominated by flatfish and sculpins, and the longevity of this new ecosystem state will depend on future eelgrass recovery dynamics supported by ecosystem-based management approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extensive global estuarine wetland losses have prompted intensive focus on restoration of these habitats. In California, substantial tracts of freshwater, brackish and tidal wetlands have been lost. Given the anthropogenic footprint of development and urbanization in this region, wetland restoration must rely on conversion of existing habitat types rather than adding new wetlands. These restorations can cause conflicts among stakeholders and species that win or lose depending on identified restoration priorities.Suisun Marsh on the San Francisco Bay Estuary is the largest brackish marsh on the US Pacific coast. To understand how conversion of brackish managed wetlands to tidal marsh would impact waterfowl populations and whether future tidal marsh restorations could provide suitable habitat for dabbling ducks, we examined waterfowl wetland use with a robust GPS‐GSM tracking dataset (442,017 locations) from six dabbling duck species (N = 315).Managed wetlands, which comprise 47% of Suisun Marsh, were consistently and strongly selected by waterfowl over tidal marshes, with use ~98% across seasons and species.However, while use of tidal marsh (only 14% of Suisun Marsh) was generally <2%, almost half our ducks (~44%) spent some time in this habitat and exhibited strong utilization of pond‐like features. Ponds only comprise ~10% of this habitat but attracted 44% use (~4.5 times greater than availability).Synthesis and applications. Managed wetlands were vital to dabbling ducks, but losses from conversion of these habitats may be partially mitigated by incorporating pond features that are more attractive to waterfowl, and likely to offer multi‐species benefits, into tidal marsh restoration designs. While waterfowl are presently a common taxon, previously seen calamitous population declines can be avoided through informed ecosystem‐based management that promotes species richness, biodiversity and helps 'keep common species common'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The invasion, or "encroachment," of native conifers commonly occurs in the absence of frequent fire in deciduous woodlands and grasslands of the Pacific Northwest, USA. To effectively target restoration activities, managers require a better understanding of the outcomes of prescribed fire and the spatial patterns of conifer invasions. We examined the duration of prescribed fire effectiveness for managing conifer invasions, as well as multiple site characteristics (including distance to potential seed trees, prescribed fire history, and topographic variables) that influenced conifer invasions following fire in grassland and oak woodland communities in the Bald Hills of Redwood National Park, California. Prescribed fire substantially reduced counts of small conifers (<0.91 m in height), but reinvasion was rapid for sites ≤75 m from the forest edge, returning to pre‐fire levels by 2 years post‐fire. Following prescribed fires, the presence of conifers was largely determined by the proximity of overstory trees, with more than 95% of conifer seedlings (stems <1.37 m in height) found within 44 m of an overstory conifer. Number of fires and years since the most recent fire were not strongly related to counts of conifer seedlings and density of conifer saplings (stems from 0.1 to 10 cm diameter at breast height, 1.37 m). Our results suggest that in the Bald Hills vulnerability to conifer invasion is principally a function of proximity to seed sources, and the frequent application of prescribed fire or surrogate treatments are needed to prevent conifer seedlings from attaining fire‐resistant sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing body of evidence has documented how wildlife alter their behavior in response to human encroachment. For carnivores, behaviors related to reproduction and communication are particularly sensitive to human disturbance and can provide an early warning indicator of development's negative impacts. Despite the important role carnivores play in an ecosystem, few tools have been developed to anticipate how future human development impacts these behaviors. We developed a set of models to understand spatial relationships between anthropogenic development and puma (Puma concolor) habitat selection for two critical reproductive behaviors: nursery habitat for raising young, and sites for communication with mates. Using geospatial location data from the Santa Cruz Mountains in California, USA, we found that female pumas use small nursery home ranges (9 km2 ± 1.72 SE) of predominantly natural habitat, potentially with low levels of human development (< 1 housing unit per 40 acres), when supporting kittens < 8 weeks old. Areas immediately surrounding (≤ 600 m) puma communication sites were also almost entirely composed of undeveloped habitat or low-density development. When modeling projected human development compared to current land use, we found that increases in human development may eliminate 20% of current puma nursery habitat and nearly 50% of current communication site habitat. Future development will also increase the patchiness of suitable habitat, intensifying the difficulty of locating and accessing suitable areas for nurseries and communication. Focusing on the habitat needed to support reproductive and communication behaviors may be an effective way to prioritize conservation planning for pumas and other apex carnivores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) are likely to be the greatest for ecosystems that exist at the land-sea interface, where small changes in sea-level could result in drastic changes in habitat availability. Rocky intertidal ecosystems possess a number of characteristics which make them highly vulnerable to changes in sea-level, yet our understanding of potential community-scale responses to future SLR scenarios is limited. Combining remote-sensing with in-situ large-area imaging, we quantified habitat extent and characterized the biological community at two rocky intertidal study locations in California, USA. We then used a model-based approach to estimate how a range of SLR scenarios would affect total habitat area, areal extent of dominant benthic space occupiers, and numerical abundance of invertebrates. Our results suggest that SLR will reduce total available rocky intertidal habitat area at our study locations, leading to an overall decrease in areal extent of dominant benthic space occupiers, and a reduction in invertebrate abundances. As large-scale environmental changes, such as SLR, accelerate in the next century, more extensive spatially explicit monitoring at ecologically relevant scales will be needed to visualize and quantify their impacts to biological systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat loss and fragmentation in the Mojave desert have been increasing, which can create barriers to movement and gene flow in populations of native species. Disturbance and degradation of Mojave desert tortoise habitat includes linear features (e.g. highways, railways, a network of dirt roads), urbanized areas, mining activities, and most recently, utility-scale solar facilities. To evaluate the spatial genetic structure of tortoises in an area experiencing rapid habitat loss, we genotyped 299 tortoises at 20 microsatellite loci from the Ivanpah valley region along the California/Nevada border. We used a Bayesian clustering analysis to quantify population genetic structure across valley and mountain pass habitats. A spatial principal components analysis was used to further investigate patterns with isolation-by-distance. To explicitly consider landscape features (e.g. habitat and anthropogenic linear barriers), we used maximum likelihood population effects analyses. We quantified recent gene flow through relatedness using a maximum likelihood pedigree approach. We detected three genetic clusters that generally corresponded to valleys separated by mountains, with one genetically distinguishable population in a mountain pass. Pedigree analyses showed second order relationships up to 60 km apart suggesting a greater range of interactions and inter-relatedness than previously suspected. Our results support historical gene flow with isolation-by-resistance and reveal reduced genetic connectivity across two parallel linear features bisecting our study area (a railway and a highway). Our work demonstrates the potential for tortoises to use a range of habitats, spanning valleys to mountain passes, but also indicates habitat fragmentation limits connectivity with relatively rapid genetic consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Declines in bird populations in agricultural regions of North America and Europe have been attributed to agricultural industrialization, increases in use of agrochemical application, and increased predation related to habitat modification. Based on count data compiled from Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) from 1974 to 2012, Christmas Bird Count (CBC) collected from 1914 to 2013, and hunter data from Annual Game Take Survey (AGTS) for years 1948–2010, ring‐necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) in California have experienced substantial declines in agricultural environments. Using a modeling approach that integrates all three forms of survey data into a joint response abundance index, we found pheasant abundance was related to the amount of harvested and unharvested crop land, types of crops produced, amount of total pesticide applied, minimum temperature, precipitation, and numbers of avian competitors and predators. Specifically, major changes in agricultural practices over the last three decades were associated with declines in pheasant numbers and likely reflected widespread loss of habitat. For example, increases in cropland were associated with increased pheasant abundance during early years of study but this effect decreased through time, such that no association in recent years was evidenced. A post hoc analysis revealed that crops beneficial to pheasant abundance (e.g., barley) have declined substantially in recent decades and were replaced by less advantageous crops (e.g., nut trees). An additional analysis using a restricted data set (1990–2013) indicated recent negative impacts on pheasant numbers associated with land use practices were also associated with relatively high levels of pesticide application. Our results may provide valuable information for management policies aimed at reducing widespread declines in pheasant populations in California and may be applicable to other avian species within agricultural settings. Furthermore, this general analytical approach is not limited to pheasants and could be applied to other taxa for which multiple survey data sources exist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving long-term persistence of species in urbanized landscapes requires characterizing population genetic structure to understand and manage the effects of anthropogenic disturbance on connectivity. Urbanization over the past century in coastal southern California has caused both precipitous loss of coastal sage scrub habitat and declines in populations of the cactus wren ( Campylorhynchus brunneicapillus). Using 22 microsatellite loci, we found that remnant cactus wren aggregations in coastal southern California comprised 20 populations based on strict exact tests for population differentiation, and 12 genetic clusters with hierarchical Bayesian clustering analyses. Genetic structure patterns largely mirrored underlying habitat availability, with cluster and population boundaries coinciding with fragmentation caused primarily by urbanization. Using a habitat model we developed, we detected stronger associations between habitat-based distances and genetic distances than Euclidean geographic distance. Within populations, we detected a positive association between available local habitat and allelic richness and a negative association with relatedness. Isolation-by-distance patterns varied over the study area, which we attribute to temporal differences in anthropogenic landscape development. We also found that genetic bottleneck signals were associated with wildfire frequency. These results indicate that habitat fragmentation and alterations have reduced genetic connectivity and diversity of cactus wren populations in coastal southern California. Management efforts focused on improving connectivity among remaining populations may help to ensure population persistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compared the distribution and frequency of American marten (Martes americana) detections during historic surveys and a recent survey on the Sagehen Experimental Forest (SEF) in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California. This area has been the location of 9 previous marten surveys during 1980- 1993, each involving a systematic detection/non-detection survey on the same grid. These data are a time series of information on the occupancy of martens that can be related to habitat change in the study area. Our objectives were to 1) resurvey martens in SEF using methodology similar to previous studies to assess current marten occupancy; 2) evaluate changes in marten occupancy during the period 1980-2008; and 3) examine associations between marten occurence and changes in habitat and landscape metrics. Current marten occupancy was estimated using surveys conducted in summer 2007, winter 2007-2008, and summer 2008. From 1978 to 2007 there was a decrease in predicted habitat patch size, core area, and total amount of marten habitat in the study area, as well as an increase in distance between patches. Marten detections in 2007-2008 were approximately 60% lower than in surveys in the 1980s. We detected no martens in the summers of 2007 and 2008, and 10 detections in winter 2007-2008 were limited to higher elevations in the southwestern portion of SEF. No martens were detected in the lower elevations where most of the recent forest management activity occurred. We suggest that the marten population at SEF has been negatively affected by the loss and fragmentation of habitat. We recommend that future management of forests in the Sagehen basin focus on restoring and connecting residual marten habitat to improve habitat quality for martens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha (Walbaum), populations have declined rapidly along the western coast of North America since the year 2000, possibly because of factors such as habitat loss, altered hydrology and barriers to migration. However, few analyses have rigorously examined which of these factors actually explain historical patterns of extirpation. Data were compiled on flow regimes, habitat loss and migration barriers for 27 streams that historically supported autumn run salmon and 22 streams that supported spring runs. The probability of extirpation in streams supporting autumn run was predicted solely by migration barriers. All other factors were >10 times less likely to explain existing variation. By contrast, models for spring run salmon suggest that habitat loss and altered flow regimes were also predictors of extirpation. These results suggest that regional extirpation of Chinook salmon has been driven by multiple forms of environmental change, and restoration efforts must address a multitude of bottlenecks that now impact spring and autumn run populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species conservation often focuses on preserving populations on remnant habitat patches, typically without evidence that this approach is sufficient for halting declines. We employed a 19-year dataset to examine the adequacy of this approach for recovering the Sonoma County distinct population segment of California tiger salamanders (SCTS; Ambystoma californiense), California, USA, which now exists almost entirely in remnant habitat patches designated as preserves across a rapidly urbanizing landscape. We estimated relative SCTS larval densities from standardized annual surveys from 2002 to 2020 across 118 vernal pools in eight preserves. We found that relative larval SCTS densities decreased by 48% over the study period, indicating that current efforts to conserve SCTS are inadequate for long-term viability. Increased densities were only observed at the single study preserve where SCTS were introduced. Temporal trends in larval density among preserves were best explained by the number of pools available to SCTS, and the ability of breeding pools to retain water throughout the larval period. Specifically, preserves with >1 breeding pool and ≥1 breeding pool that held water for at least two months following the breeding season (into late April) even in dry years had substantially lower rates of larval decline. Active conservation management of preserves, including provision of multiple breeding pools, at least some of which are resilient to variable future precipitation regimes, will be required to effectively conserve SCTS. We expect these findings to apply broadly to the conservation of many species of pool-breeding amphibians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the study on the distribution of 834 of over 1000 exotic plant taxa that have been established in California. Overall species richness increases with net primary productivity. But the exotic flora is richest in low-lying coastal sites harboring large numbers of endangered species, while native diversity is greatest in areas with high mean elevation. Weedy and invasive exotics are more tightly related to the distribution of endangered species compared to the total pool of exotic species. Structural equation modeling shows that while human activities, like urbanization and agriculture, help in the initial invasion by exotic plants, exotics spread ahead of the front human development into areas with large numbers of threatened native plants.

The total genetic diversity of a species is a key factor in its persistence and conservation. Because realistic sample sizes are far smaller than the total population, it is impractical to exhaustively characterize diversity of most populations. Here, we demonstrate the possibility of calculating the genetic diversity of a spatial population from a sample using genealogical models. We trace the history of a population by simulating the locations of the ancestors of a particular sample of the population backwards in time. We use this method to estimate the genetic diversity of the global population of Pseudomonas bacteria. The same results are obtained whether using a global sample or a subsample restricted to a particular geographic region (California). The results are also validated by comparing additional predictions of the model to the data. Furthermore, we use these results to show that the level of genetic diversity in a population depends strongly on the size of its habitat, much more strongly than does biodiversity as measured by the number of species. The strong dependence of diversity on habitat area has significant implications for conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the long-term consequences of habitat alteration for the preservation of biodiversity and ecosystem function requires an understanding of how ecological filters drive taxonomic and functional biodiversity loss. Here, we test a set of predictions concerning the role of ecological filters in restructuring native bee assemblages inhabiting fragmented coastal sage scrub ecosystems in southern California, USA. In 2011 and 2012, we collected native bees in scrub habitat belonging to two treatment categories: large natural reserves and small habitat fragments embedded in an urban landscape. We compared bee assemblages in reserve and fragment sites with respect to their taxonomic and functional alpha diversity, beta diversity, assemblage composition, and mean geographical range size estimated via distribution maps compiled for this study from digitized specimen records. We found multiple lines of evidence that ecological filtering drove bee diversity loss in fragments: a disproportionate loss of functional diversity relative to taxonomic diversity, shifts in assemblage composition driven largely by the preferential extirpation of reserve-associated indicator species, and disproportionate loss of range-restricted species. However, we found no evidence of taxonomic or functional homogenization across fragment bee assemblages, suggesting that filtering was not sufficiently strong to cause a subset of functional traits (and their associated species) to dominate assemblages in fragments. Our results suggest that ecological filtering altered bee assemblages in habitat fragments, even when such fragments contained well-preserved native plant assemblages, underscoring the importance of preserving large areas of natural habitat for the conservation of bees (especially range-restricted taxa) and their associated ecological functions., (© 2019 by the Ecological Society of America.)