Search

During coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the genetic mutations of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) occurred frequently. Some mutations in the spike protein are considered to promote transmissibility of the virus, while the mutation patterns in other proteins are less studied and may also be important in understanding the characteristics of SARS-CoV-2. We used the sequencing data of SARS-CoV-2 strains in California to investigate the time-varying patterns of the evolutionary genetic distance. The accumulative genetic distances were quantified across different time periods and in different viral proteins. The increasing trends of genetic distance were observed in spike protein (S protein), the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) region and nonstructural protein 3 (nsp3) of open reading frame 1 (ORF1), and nucleocapsid protein (N protein). The genetic distances in ORF3a, ORF8, and nsp2 of ORF1 started to diverge from their original variants after September 2020. By contrast, mutations in other proteins appeared transiently, and no evident increasing trend was observed in the genetic distance to the original variants. This study presents distinct patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 mutations across multiple proteins from the aspect of genetic distance. Future investigation shall be conducted to study the effects of accumulative mutations on epidemics characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic poses serious threats to global health, and the emerging mutation in SARS-CoV-2 genomes, e.g., the D614G substitution, is one of the major challenges of disease control. Characterizing the role of the mutation activities is of importance to understand how the evolution of pathogen shapes the epidemiological outcomes at population scale.Methods: We developed a statistical framework to reconstruct variant-specific reproduction numbers and estimate transmission advantage associated with the mutation activities marked by single substitution empirically. Using likelihood-based approach, the model is exemplified with the COVID-19 surveillance data from January 1 to June 30, 2020 in California, USA. We explore the potential of this framework to generate early warning signals for detecting transmission advantage on a real-time basis.Results: The modelling framework in this study links together the mutation activity at molecular scale and COVID-19 transmissibility at population scale. We find a significant transmission advantage of COVID-19 associated with the D614G substitution, which increases the infectivity by 54% (95%CI: 36, 72). For the early alarming potentials, the analytical framework is demonstrated to detect this transmission advantage, before the mutation reaches dominance, on a real-time basis.Conclusions: We reported an evidence of transmission advantage associated with D614G substitution, and highlighted the real-time estimating potentials of modelling framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic poses a serious threat to global health, and pathogenic mutations are a major challenge to disease control. We developed a statistical framework to explore the association between molecular-level mutation activity of SARS-CoV-2 and population-level disease transmissibility of COVID-19. Methods: We estimated the instantaneous transmissibility of COVID-19 by using the time-varying reproduction number (Rt). The mutation activity in SARS-CoV-2 is quantified empirically depending on (i) the prevalence of emerged amino acid substitutions and (ii) the frequency of these substitutions in the whole sequence. Using the likelihood-based approach, a statistical framework is developed to examine the association between mutation activity and Rt. We adopted the COVID-19 surveillance data in California as an example for demonstration. Results: We found a significant positive association between population-level COVID-19 transmissibility and the D614G substitution on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. We estimate that a per 0.01 increase in the prevalence of glycine (G) on codon 614 is positively associated with a 0.49% (95% CI: 0.39 to 0.59) increase in Rt, which explains 61% of the Rt variation after accounting for the control measures. We remark that the modeling framework can be extended to study other infectious pathogens. Conclusions: Our findings show a link between the molecular-level mutation activity of SARS-CoV-2 and population-level transmission of COVID-19 to provide further evidence for a positive association between the D614G substitution and Rt. Future studies exploring the mechanism between SARS-CoV-2 mutations and COVID-19 infectivity are warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This piece is part of a special section of "hundreds" in honor of Kathleen Stewart. It reflects on a mass shooting in California through her sense of "atmosphere." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]