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Variations in freshwater inflow have ecological consequences for estuaries ranging among eutrophication, flushing and transport, and high and low salinity impacts on biota. Predicting the potential effects of the magnitude and composition of inflow on estuaries over a range of spatial and temporal scales requires reliable mathematical models. The goal of this study was to develop and test a model of ecosystem processes with variable freshwater inflow to the sub-tropical Caloosahatchee River Estuary (CRE) in southwest Florida from 2002 to 2009. The modeling framework combined empirically derived inputs of freshwater and materials from the watershed, daily predictions of salinity, a box model for physical transport, and simulation models of biogeochemical and seagrass dynamics. The CRE was split into 3 segments to estimate advective and dispersive transport of water column constituents. Each segment contained a sub-model to simulate changes in the concentrations of organic nitrogen and phosphorus (ON and OP), ammonium (NH 4 + ), nitrate-nitrite (NO x − ), ortho-phosphate (PO 4 −3 ), phytoplankton chlorophyll a (CHL), and sediment microalgae (SM). The seaward segment also had sub-models for seagrasses ( Halodule wrightii and Thalassia testudinum ). The model provided realistic predictions of ON in the upper estuary during wet conditions since organic nitrogen is associated with freshwater inflow and low salinity. Although simulated CHL concentrations were variable, the model proved to be a reliable predictor in time and space. While predicted NO x − concentrations were proportional to freshwater inflow, NH 4 + was less predictable due to the complexity of internal cycling during times of reduced freshwater inflow. Overall, the model provided a representation of seagrass biomass changes despite the absence of epiphytes, nutrient effects, or sophisticated translocation in the formulation. The model is being used to investigate the relative importance of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) vs. CHL in submarine light availability throughout the CRE, assess if reductions in nutrient loads are more feasible by controlling freshwater quantity or N and P concentrations, and explore the role of inflow and flushing on the fates of externally and internally derived dissolved and particulate constituents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short- and long-term changes in estuarine biogeochemical and biological attributes are consequences of variations in both the magnitude and composition of freshwater inputs. A common conceptualization of estuaries depicts nutrient loading from coastal watersheds as the stressor that promotes algal biomass, decreases submarine light penetration, and degrades seagrass habitats. Freshwater inflow depresses salinity while simultaneously introducing colored dissolved organic matter (color or CDOM) which greatly reduces estuarine light penetration. This is especially true for sub-tropical estuaries. This study applied a model of the Caloosahatchee River Estuary (CRE) in southwest Florida to explore the relationships between freshwater inflow, nutrient loading, submarine light, and seagrass survival. In two independent model series, the loading of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus (DIN and DIP) was reduced by 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% relative to the base model case from 2002 to 2009 (2922 days). While external nutrient loads were reduced by lowering inflow ( Q 0 ) in the first series ( Q 0 series), reductions were accomplished by decreasing the incoming concentrations of DIN and DIP in the second series (NP Series). The model also was used to explore the partitioning of submarine light extinction due to chlorophyll a , CDOM, and turbidity. Results suggested that attempting to control nutrient loading by decreasing freshwater inflow could have minor effects on water column concentrations but greatly influence submarine light and seagrass biomass. This is because of the relative importance of Q 0 to salinity and submarine light. In general, light penetration and seagrass biomass decreased with increased inflow and CDOM. Increased chlorophyll a did account for more submarine light extinction in the lower estuary. The model output was used to help identify desirable levels of inflow, nutrient loading, water quality, salinity, and submarine light for seagrass in the lower CRE. These findings provide information essential to the development of a resource-based approach to improve the management of both freshwater inflow and estuarine biotic resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]