1. Identifying future climate change and drought detection using CanESM2 in the upper Siem Reap River, Cambodia.
- Author
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Chim, Kosal, Tunnicliffe, Jon, Shamseldin, Asaad, and Chan, Kakkada
- Subjects
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CLIMATE change detection , *GENERAL circulation model , *DOWNSCALING (Climatology) , *ATMOSPHERIC models , *ARTIFICIAL neural networks - Abstract
• Climate change would cause an increasing trend for temperatures and decreasing amount of precipitation. • Climate change would contribute to a drier condition in the upper Siem Reap catchment. • Climate change could influence on water supply of the Angkor Temple Complex, livelihood of the people and cultivation. • Forest plantation is an effective and practical solution to cope with climate change. Cambodia is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts such as floods and droughts. Study of future climate change and drought conditions in the upper Siem Reap River catchment is vital because this river plays a crucial role in maintaining the Angkor Temple Complex and livelihood of the local population since 12th century. The resolution of climate data from Global Circulation Models (GCM) is too coarse to employ effectively at the watershed scale, and therefore downscaling of the dataset is required. Artificial neural network (ANN) and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) models were applied in this study to downscale precipitation and temperatures from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios) from Global Climate Model data of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) on a daily and monthly basis. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were adopted to develop criteria for dry and wet conditions in the catchment. Trend detection of climate parameters and drought indices were assessed using the Mann-Kendall test. It was observed that the ANN and SDSM models performed well in downscaling monthly precipitation and temperature, as well as daily temperature, but not daily precipitation. Every scenario indicated that there would be significant warming and decreasing precipitation which contribute to mild drought. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision makers since climate change may potentially impact future water supply of the Angkor Temple Complex (a World Heritage Site). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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