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New shipping routes are emerging as a result of iceberg melting in polar regions, allowing for more efficient transport of people and goods. Opening of the Northwest Passage, the maritime route connecting Pacific Ocean with Atlantic Ocean through Arctic region, is considered such a development. The increasing transport exploitation of the Northwest Passage requires the quality assessment of maritime navigation aids for compliance with the established requirements. Here we contribute to the subject with addressing the polar commercial-grade GPS positioning performance in the Northwest Passage in the extreme positioning environment conditions during the massive 2003 space weather storm, a space weather event similar to the Carrington Storm of 1859, the largest space weather event recorded. The GPS positioning environment in the Northwest Passage during the Carrington-like storm in 2003 was reconstructed through the GNSS SDR receiver-post processing of the experimental GPS observations. The raw GPS dual-frequency pseudoranges and navigation messages were collected at the International GNSS Service (IGS) reference station at Ulukhaktok, Victoria Island, Canada. Pseudorange processing and GPS position estimation were performed in three scenarios of pre-mitigation of the ionospheric effects, known as the single major contributor GPS positioning error: (i) no corrections applied, (ii) Klobuchar-based corrected GPS positioning, and (iii) dual-frequency corrected GPS positioning. Resulting GPS positioning error vectors were derived as positioning error residuals from the known reference station position. Statistical properties of the northing, easting, and vertical components of the GPS positioning error vector were analyzed with a software developed in the R environment for statistical computing to select suitable methods for the GPS positioning error prediction model development. The analysis also identified the most suitable theoretical fit for experimental statistical distributions to assist the model development. Finally, two competitive GPS positioning error prediction models were developed, based on the exponential smoothing (reference) and the generalized regression neural networks (GRNN) (alternative) methods. Their properties were assessed to recommend their use as mitigation methods for adverse massive space weather effects in polar regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a flexible semiparametric stochastic mixed effects model for bivariate cyclic longitudinal data. The model can handle either single cycle or, more generally, multiple consecutive cycle data. The approach models the mean of responses by parametric fixed effects and a smooth nonparametric function for the underlying time effects, and the relationship across the bivariate responses by a bivariate Gaussian random field and a joint distribution of random effects. The proposed model not only can model complicated individual profiles, but also allows for more flexible within‐subject and between‐response correlations. The fixed effects regression coefficients and the nonparametric time functions are estimated using maximum penalized likelihood, where the resulting estimator for the nonparametric time function is a cubic smoothing spline. The smoothing parameters and variance components are estimated simultaneously using restricted maximum likelihood. Simulation results show that the parameter estimates are close to the true values. The fit of the proposed model on a real bivariate longitudinal dataset of pre‐menopausal women also performs well, both for a single cycle analysis and for a multiple consecutive cycle analysis. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 471–498; 2020 © 2020 Statistical Society of Canada [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The generalized semiparametric mixed varying‐coefficient effects model for longitudinal data can accommodate a variety of link functions and flexibly model different types of covariate effects, including time‐constant, time‐varying and covariate‐varying effects. The time‐varying effects are unspecified functions of time and the covariate‐varying effects are nonparametric functions of a possibly time‐dependent exposure variable. A semiparametric estimation procedure is developed that uses local linear smoothing and profile weighted least squares, which requires smoothing in the two different and yet connected domains of time and the time‐dependent exposure variable. The asymptotic properties of the estimators of both nonparametric and parametric effects are investigated. In addition, hypothesis testing procedures are developed to examine the covariate effects. The finite‐sample properties of the proposed estimators and testing procedures are examined through simulations, indicating satisfactory performances. The proposed methods are applied to analyze the AIDS Clinical Trial Group 244 clinical trial to investigate the effects of antiretroviral treatment switching in HIV‐infected patients before and after developing the T215Y antiretroviral drug resistance mutation. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 352–373; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Orosirian Period (2050–1800 Ma) of the Paleoproterozoic Era represents an interval between the Great Oxidation Event and Lomagundi-Jatuli Excursion, and the apparent environmental stability of the late Paleoproterozoic to mid-Mesoproterozoic (1800–1300 Ma). Here, we present stratigraphic data, carbon isotope chemostratigraphy, element abundances, and U–Pb zircon depositional ages from the Belcher Group in subarctic Canada, providing an unparallelled global reference section for the Orosirian Period. U–Pb dates of 2018.5 ± 1.0 Ma and 2015.4 ± 1.8 Ma for two tuffs in the Kasegalik Formation (lowest Belcher Group) provide the first robust age constraints for Earth's earliest unambiguous cyanobacterial fossil, Eoentophysalis belcherensis. A tuffaceous shale ∼4 km stratigraphically higher, at the contact of the Flaherty and Omarolluk formations (1854.2 ± 1.6 Ma), provides an age for foreland basin development associated with the collision of the Superior and Hearne cratons. Carbonate carbon isotope data show smooth fluctuations ranging from −2.3 to +3.6‰, reaching a maximum near ca. 1.88 Ga. This trend toward heavier carbon isotope values is interpreted as the result of global orogenesis during Nuna assembly that elevated nutrient supply and sedimentation rates, leading to an increase in the proportion of organic carbon burial relative to carbonate carbon burial. • New depositional ages constrain Belcher Group deposition between 2018.5–1854.2 Ma. • Systematic δ 13 C shift from 0–3.6‰ upward through Belcher Group. • Data suggests a strong tectonic control on Orosirian carbon cycle. • Oldest cyanobacterial microfossils, Eoentophysalis belcherensis , are 2016.5 Ma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recognition that polar bears are shared by hunters in Canada and Alaska prompted development of the "Polar Bear Management Agreement for the Southern Beaufort Sea." Under this Agreement, the harvest of polar bears from the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) is shared between Inupiat hunters of Alaska and Inuvialuit hunters of Canada. Quotas for each jurisdiction are to be reviewed annually in light of the best available scientific information. Ideal implementation of the Agreement has been hampered by the inability to quantify geographic overlap among bears from adjacent populations. We applied new analytical procedures to a more extensive radiotelemetry data set than has previously been available to quantify that overlap and thereby improve the efficacy of the Agreement. We constructed a grid over the eastern Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Sea and used two-dimensional kernel smoothing to assign probabilities to the distributions of all instrumented bears. A cluster analysis of radio relocation data identified three relatively discrete groups or "populations" of polar bears: the SBS, Chukchi Sea (CS), and northern Beaufort Sea (NBS) populations. With kernel smoothing, we calculated relative probabilities of occurrence for individual members of each population in each cell of our grid. We estimated the uncertainty in probabilities by bootstrapping. Availability of polar bears from each population varied geographically. Near Barrow, Alaska, 50% of harvested bears are from the CS population and 50% from the SBS population. Nearly 99% of the bears taken by Kaktovik hunters are from the SBS. At Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories, Canada, 50% are from the SBS and 50% from the NBS population. We displayed the occurrence of bears from each population as probabilities for each cell in our grid and as maps with contour lines delineating changes in relative probability. This new analytical approach will greatly improve the accuracy of allocating harvest quotas among hunting communities and jurisdictions while assuring that harvests remain within the bounds of sustainable yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The standard processing of airborne gamma-ray spectrometry (AGRS) data provides useful preliminary information to interpretation in several contexts, such as environmental studies, geological mapping, and analysis of mineral deposits. For optimal results, the acquisition conditions should be nearly constant, and the flight height should be uniform. However, abrupt changes in flight height (often originated from mountainous terrain) are common and lead to spurious variations and incorrect anomaly interpretation. Moreover, the commonly used corrections applied to radiometric data do not consider the effective sampling area of a survey, especially the overlap between successive fields of view. As a consequence, the concentrations estimates of potassium (K), uranium (eU), and thorium (eTh) are not sharp. A solution to deal with this problem is to compute the concentration from the AGRS data through an inversion algorithm. Inversion of AGRS data has shown to be an effective approach to suppress the significant overlap between successive fields of view. We introduce a logarithmic barrier approach for the radiometric inversion to avoid spurious negative values in the radioelement concentration models. We choose calibration ranges from Brazil and Canada to test the proposed methodology. We produced concentration models for K, eU and eTh and compared the standard approach model with the recovered model from both ranges. The predicted data from inversion of both calibration ranges are mostly consistent with the survey data, not over smoothing the data or fitting noise. The predicted data from inversion showed more consistency with the observed data than the one predicted from the standard procedure. • Inversion of AGRS data could suppress the overlapping between successive fields of view. • The logarithmic barrier can eliminate the spurious negative values in AGRS data. • The numerical experiments of both calibration ranges were consistent with theoretical models. • The predicted data from inversion showed compatibility with the observed data. • The predicted data from inversion tends to suppress the noise in the observed data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]