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In this study, our aim was to model forest fire occurrences caused by lightning using the variable of vegetation water content over six fire-dominant forested natural subregions in Northern Alberta, Canada. We used eight-day composites of surface reflectance data at 500-m spatial resolution, along with historical lightning-caused fire occurrences during the 2005–2016 period, derived from a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. First, we calculated the normalized difference water index (NDWI) as an indicator of vegetation/fuel water content over the six natural subregions of interest. Then, we generated the subregion-specific annual dynamic median NDWI during the 2005–2012 period, which was assembled into a distinct pattern every year. We plotted the historical lightning-caused fires onto the generated patterns, and used the concept of cumulative frequency to model lightning-caused fire occurrences. Then, we applied this concept to model the cumulative frequencies of lightning-caused fires using the median NDWI values in each natural subregion. By finding the best subregion-specific function (i.e., R2 values over 0.98 for each subregion), we evaluated their performance using an independent subregion-specific lightning-caused fire dataset acquired during the 2013–2016 period. Our analyses revealed strong relationships (i.e., R2 values in the range of 0.92 to 0.98) between the observed and modeled cumulative frequencies of lightning-caused fires at the natural subregion level throughout the validation years. Finally, our results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method in modeling lightning-caused fire occurrences over forested regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]