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In August 2018, the European Space Agency (ESA) launched the Aeolus satellite, whose Atmospheric LAser Doppler INstrument (ALADIN) is the first space-borne Doppler wind lidar to regularly measure vertical profiles of horizontal line-of-sight (HLOS) winds with global sampling. This mission is intended to assess improvement to numerical weather prediction provided by wind observations in regions poorly constrained by atmospheric mass, such as the tropics, but also, potentially, in polar regions such as the Arctic where direct wind observations are especially sparse. There remain gaps in the evaluation of the Aeolus products over the Arctic region, which is the focus of this contribution. Here, an assessment of the Aeolus Level-2B (L2B) wind product is carried out, progressing from specific locations in the Canadian North to the pan-Arctic. In particular, Aeolus data are compared to a limited sample of coincident ground-based Ka-band radar measurements at Iqaluit, Nunavut, to a larger set of coincident radiosonde measurements over the Canadian North, to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)'s short-range forecast, and to the reanalysis product, ERA5, from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Periods covered include the early phase of the first laser flight model (flight model A – FM-A; September to October 2018), the early phase of the second laser flight model (flight model B – FM-B; August to September 2019), and the middle phase of FM-B (December 2019 to January 2020). The adjusted r -squared between Aeolus and other local datasets is around 0.9 except for lower values for the comparison to the Ka-band radar, reflecting limited sampling opportunities with the radar data. This consistency is degraded by about 10 % for the Rayleigh winds in the summer due to solar background noise and other possible errors. Over the pan-Arctic, consistency, with correlation greater than 0.8, is found in the Mie channel from the planetary boundary layer to the lower stratosphere (near surface to 16 km a.g.l.) and in the Rayleigh channel from the troposphere to the stratosphere (2 to 25 km a.g.l.). In all three periods, Aeolus standard deviations are found to be 5 % to 40 % greater than those from ECCC-B and ERA5. We found that the L2B estimated error product for Aeolus is coherent with the differences between Aeolus and the other datasets and can be used as a guide for expected consistency. Our work shows that the high quality of the Aeolus dataset that has been demonstrated globally applies to the sparsely sampled Arctic region. It also demonstrates the lack of available independent wind measurements in the Canadian North, lending urgency to the need to augment the observing capacity in this region to ensure suitable calibration and validation of future space-borne Doppler wind lidar (DWL) missions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In August 2018, the European Space Agency launched the Aeolus satellite, whose Atmospheric LAser Doppler INstrument (ALADIN) is the first spaceborne Doppler wind lidar to regularly measure vertical profiles of horizontal line-of-sight (HLOS) winds with global sampling. This mission is intended to assess improvement to numerical weather prediction provided by wind observations in regions poorly constrained by atmospheric mass, such as the tropics, but also, potentially, in polar regions such as the Arctic where direct wind observations are especially sparse. There remain gaps in the evaluation of the Aeolus products over the Arctic region, which is the focus of this contribution. Here, an assessment of the Aeolus Level-2B wind product is carried out from measurement stations in Canada's north, to the pan-Arctic, with Aeolus data being compared to Ka-band radar measurements at Iqaluit, Nunavut; to radiosonde measurements over Northern Canada; to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)'s short-range forecast; and to the reanalysis product, ERA5, from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Periods covered include the early phase during the first laser nominal flight model (FM-A; 2018-09 to 2018-10), the early phase during the second flight laser (FM-B; 2019-08 to 2019-09), and the mid-FM-B periods (2019-12 to 2020-01). The adjusted r-square between Aeolus and other local datasets are around 0.9, except for somewhat lower values in comparison with the ground-based radar, presumably due to limited sampling. This consistency degraded by about 10 % for the Rayleigh winds in the summer, presumably due to scattering from the solar background. Over the pan-Arctic, consistency, with correlation greater than 0.8, is found in the Mie channel from the planetary boundary layer to the lower stratosphere (near surface to 16 km a.g.l.) and in the Rayleigh channel from the troposphere to the stratosphere (2 km to 25 km a.g.l.). Zonal and meridional projections of the HLOS winds are separated to account for the systematic changes in HLOS winds arising from sampling wind components from different viewing orientations in the ascending and descending phases. In all cases, Aeolus standard deviations are found to be 20 % greater than those from ECCC-B and ERA5. We found that L2B estimated error product for Aeolus is coherent with the differences between Aeolus and the other datasets, and can be used as a guide for expected consistency. Thus, our work confirms the quality of the Aeolus dataset over the Arctic and shows that the new Aeolus L2B wind product provides a valuable addition to current wind products in regions such as the Arctic Ocean region where few direct wind observations have been available to date. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (Can- SISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state-of-the-art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. This study presents an assessment from the CanSISE Network of the ability of the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) to simulate and predict snow and sea ice from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadian sector. To account for observational uncertainty, model structural uncertainty, and internal climate variability, the analysis uses multi-source observations, multiple Earth system models (ESMs) in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and large initial-condition ensembles of CanESM2 and other models. It is found that the ability of the CanESM2 simulation to capture snow-related climate parameters, such as cold-region surface temperature and precipitation, lies within the range of currently available international models. Accounting for the considerable disagreement among satellite-era observational datasets on the distribution of snow water equivalent, CanESM2 has too much springtime snow mass over Canada, reflecting a broader northern hemispheric positive bias. Biases in seasonal snow cover extent are generally less pronounced. CanESM2 also exhibits retreat of springtime snow generally greater than observational estimates, after accounting for observational uncertainty and internal variability. Sea ice is biased low in the Canadian Arctic, which makes it difficult to assess the realism of long-term sea ice trends there. The strengths and weaknesses of the modelling system need to be understood as a practical tradeoff: the Canadian models are relatively inexpensive computationally because of their moderate resolution, thus enabling their use in operational seasonal prediction and for generating large ensembles of multidecadal simulations. Improvements in climate-prediction systems like CanSIPS rely not just on simulation quality but also on using novel observational constraints and the ready transfer of research to an operational setting. Improvements in seasonal forecasting practice arising from recent research include accurate initialization of snow and frozen soil, accounting for observational uncertainty in forecast verification, and sea ice thickness initialization using statistical predictors available in real time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (Can- SISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state of the art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. Here, we present an assessment from the CanSISE Network on trends in the historical record of snow cover (fraction, water equivalent) and sea ice (area, concentration, type, and thickness) across Canada. We also assess projected changes in snow cover and sea ice likely to occur by mid-century, as simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite of Earth system models. The historical datasets show that the fraction of Canadian land and marine areas covered by snow and ice is decreasing over time, with seasonal and regional variability in the trends consistent with regional differences in surface temperature trends. In particular, summer sea ice cover has decreased significantly across nearly all Canadian marine regions, and the rate of multi-year ice loss in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago has nearly doubled over the last 8 years. The multi-model consensus over the 2020-2050 period shows reductions in fall and spring snow cover fraction and sea ice concentration of 5-10% per decade (or 15-30% in total), with similar reductions in winter sea ice concentration in both Hudson Bay and eastern Canadian waters. Peak pre-melt terrestrial snow water equivalent reductions of up to 10% per decade (30% in total) are projected across southern Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]