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Objective: There has been interest in a possible negative association between HIV and multiple sclerosis (MS). We aimed to compare the risk of MS in a cohort of individuals living with HIV to that in the general population. Methods: Population‐based health data were accessed for 2 cohorts of HIV‐positive persons from Sweden and British Columbia, Canada. Incident MS was identified using MS registries or a validated algorithm applied to administrative data. Individuals with HIV were followed from 1 year after the first clinical evidence of HIV or the first date of complete administrative health data (Canada = April 1, 1992 and Sweden = January 1, 2001) until the earliest of incident MS, emigration, death, or study end (Canada = March 31, 2020 and Sweden = December 31, 2018). The observed MS incidence rate in the HIV‐positive cohort was compared to the expected age‐, sex‐, calendar year‐, income‐specific, and region of birth‐specific rates in a randomly selected sample of >20% of each general population. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for MS following the first antiretroviral therapy exposure ("ART‐exposed") was also calculated. Results: The combined Sweden‐Canada cohort included 29,163 (75% men) HIV‐positive persons. During 242,248 person‐years of follow‐up, 14 incident MS cases were observed in the HIV‐positive cohort, whereas 26.19 cases were expected. The SIR for MS in the HIV‐positive population was 0.53 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.32–0.90). The SIR for MS following the first ART exposure was 0.55 (95% CI = 0.31–0.96). Interpretation: This international population‐based study demonstrated a lower risk of MS among HIV‐positive individuals, and HIV‐positive ART‐exposed individuals. These findings provide support for further exploration into the relationship among HIV, ART, and MS. ANN NEUROL 2024;95:487–494 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Existing severity measurements in multiple sclerosis (MS) are often cross-sectional, making longitudinal comparisons of disease course between individuals difficult., Objective: The objective of this study is to create a severity metric that can reliably summarize a patient's disease course., Methods: We developed the nARMSS - normalized ARMSS (age-related MS severity score) over follow-up, using the deviation of individual ARMSS scores from the expected value and integrated over the corresponding time period. The nARMSS scales from -5 to +5; a positive value indicates a more severe disease course for a patient when compared to other patients with similar disease timings., Results: Using Swedish MS registry data, the nARMSS was tested using data at 2 and 4 years of follow-up to predict the most severe quartile during the subsequent period up to 10 years total follow-up. The metric used was area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC). This resulted in measurements of 0.929 and 0.941. In an external Canadian validation cohort, the equivalent AUC-ROCs were 0.901 and 0.908., Conclusion: The nARMSS provides a reliable, generalizable and easily measurable metric which makes longitudinal comparison of disease course between individuals feasible.

Objectives: We aimed at designing a nomogram, a prediction tool, to predict the individual's risk of conversion to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) at the time of multiple sclerosis (MS) onset., Methods: One derivation and three validation cohorts were established. The derivation cohort included 8825 relapsing-onset MS patients in Sweden. A nomogram was built based on a survival model with the best statistical fit and prediction accuracy. The nomogram was validated using data from 3967 patients in the British Columbia cohort, 176 patients in the ACROSS and 2355 patients in FREEDOMS/FREEDOMS II extension studies., Results: Sex, calendar year of birth, first-recorded Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, age at the first EDSS and age at disease onset showed significant predictive ability to estimate the risk of SPMS conversion at 10, 15 and 20 years. The nomogram reached 84% (95% confidence intervals (CIs): 83-85) internal and 77% (95% CI: 76-78), 77% (95% CI: 70-85) and 87% (95% CI: 84-89) external accuracy., Conclusions: The SPMS nomogram represents a much-needed complementary tool designed to assist in decision-making and patient counselling in the early phase of MS. The SPMS nomogram may improve outcomes by prompting timely and more efficacious treatment for those with a worse prognosis.