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Background: The RE-LY (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy) trial demonstrated that higher-risk patients with atrial fibrillation had lower rates of stroke or systemic embolism and a similar rate of major bleeding, on average, when treated with dabigatran 150mg compared to warfarin. Since population-level averages may not apply to individual patients, estimating the heterogeneity of treatment effect can improve application of RE-LY in clinical practice. Methods and results: For 18040 patients randomized in RE-LY, we used patient-level data to develop multivariable models to predict the risk for stroke or systemic embolism and for major bleeding including all three treatment groups (dabigatran 110mg, dabigatran 150mg, and warfarin) over a median follow up of 2.0 years. The mean predicted absolute risk reduction (ARR) for stroke/systemic embolism with dabigatran 150mg compared to warfarin was 1.32% (range 11.6% lower to 3.30% higher risk). The mean predicted ARR for bleeding was 0.41% (range 8.93% lower to 63.4% higher risk). Patients with increased stroke/systemic embolism risk included those with prior stroke/TIA (OR 2.01), diabetics on warfarin (OR 2.00), and older patients on dabigatran 150mg (OR 1.68 for every 10-year increase). Major bleeding risk was higher in patients on aspirin (OR 1.25), with a history of diabetes (OR 1.34) or prior stroke/TIA (OR 1.22), those with heart failure on dabigatran 110mg (OR 1.52), older patients on either dabigatran 110mg or 150mg (OR 1.57 and 1.93, respectively, for each 10-year increase), and heavier patients on dabigatran 110mg or 150mg; patients in a region outside the United States and Canada and with better renal function had lower bleeding risk. Conclusions: There is substantial heterogeneity in the benefits and risks of dabigatran relative to warfarin among patients with atrial fibrillation. Using individualized estimates may enable shared decision making and facilitate more appropriate use of dabigatran; as such, it should be prospectively tested. Clinical trial registration: www.clinicaltrials.gov number, NCT00262600. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Missing health-related quality of life (HRQOL) data in longitudinal studies can reduce precision and power and bias results. Using INTERMACS (Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support), we sought to identify factors associated with missing HRQOL data, examine the impact of these factors on estimated HRQOL assuming missing at random missingness, and perform sensitivity analyses to examine missing not at random (MNAR) missingness because of illness severity.Methods and Results: INTERMACS patients (n=3248) with a preimplantation profile of 1 (critical cardiogenic shock) or 2 (progressive decline) were assessed with the EQ-5D-3L visual analog scale and Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire-12 summary scores pre-implantation and 3 months postoperatively. Mean and median observed and missing at random-imputed HRQOL scores were calculated, followed by sensitivity analyses. Independent factors associated with HRQOL scores and missing HRQOL assessments were determined using multivariable regression. Independent factors associated with preimplantation and 3-month HRQOL scores, and with the likelihood of missing HRQOL assessments, revealed few correlates of HRQOL and missing assessments (R2 range, 4.7%-11.9%). For patients with INTERMACS profiles 1 and 2 and INTERMACS profile 1 alone, missing at random-imputed mean and median HRQOL scores were similar to observed scores, before and 3 months after implantation, whereas MNAR-imputed mean scores were lower (≥5 points) at baseline but not at 3 months.Conclusions: We recommend use of sensitivity analyses using an MNAR imputation strategy for longitudinal studies when missingness is attributable to illness severity. Conduct of MNAR sensitivity analyses may be less critical after mechanical circulatory support implant, when there are likely fewer MNAR data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is a burdensome disease. It is unclear whether PAD cohorts enrolled in contemporary randomized control trials (RCT) are representative of the real-world PAD populations in terms of their patient characteristics. We compared baseline patient characteristics and health status (as measured by the Peripheral Artery Questionnaire [PAQ]) between the randomized CLEVER study, and the real-world PORTRAIT registry. CLEVER was an RCT of PAD patients enrolled from 29 centers across the US and Canada comparing revascularization with stenting versus optimal medical therapy (OMT) and supervised exercise therapy (SET) plus OMT. PORTRAIT was a multicenter, prospective study of patients with new or worsening PAD symptoms across ten sites in the US. The final cohort consisted of 879 patients (n = 119 from CLEVER, n = 760 from PORTRAIT (24.5% black, 41.4% women). While CLEVER enrolled patients with aortoiliac disease, only 16.0% of the PORTRAIT cohort had isolated aortoiliac disease. Compared with CLEVER, patients from PORTRAIT were older (64.0 ± 9.5 versus 68.9 ± 9.5 yrs., p ≤0.001), had more severe disease as measured by the ankle brachial index (0.7 ± 0.2 versus 0.9 ± 0.2, p ≤0.001) and a higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors including hyperlipidemia and diabetes (all p values<0.05). Both cohorts had similar disease-specific health status as measured by the PAQ summary score (47.4 ± 21.9 versus 43.6 ± 18.4, p = 0.07). In this comparative study, real-world patients with PAD were older and sicker when compared to an RCT with similar indications. This gap may be bridged by improving enrollment of underrepresented high-risk patients in PAD trials testing strategies for PAD symptom relief. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01419080?term=portrait&rank=1 NCT01419080. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major improvements in medical therapy and percutaneous coronary intervention for coronary artery disease (CAD) have emerged during the previous 2 decades, but no randomized trial in patients with stable CAD has been powered to compare these 2 strategies for the hard clinical end points of death or myocardial infarction (MI), and previous studies have not evaluated the effect of coronary stents and intensive medical therapy on cardiac events during long-term follow-up. Between 1999 and 2004, 2,287 patients with documented myocardial ischemia and angiographically confirmed CAD were randomized to the Clinical Outcomes Utilizing Revascularization and Aggressive DruG Evaluation (COURAGE) trial, with a principal hypothesis that a strategy of percutaneous coronary intervention plus intensive, guideline-driven medical therapy would be superior to a strategy of intensive medical therapy alone. The primary end point was a composite of all-cause mortality or acute MI (time to first event) during a 2.5- to 7-year (median 5) follow-up. Baseline characteristics were a mean age of 62 ± 5 years, 85% men, and 86% Caucasian. Mean duration of angina before randomization was 26 months (average 10 episodes/week), and 29% of patients were smokers, 67% had hypertension, 38% had previous MI, 71% had dyslipidemia, 34% had diabetes, 27% had previous revascularization, and 69% had multivessel CAD. Approximately 55% of patients met established criteria for the metabolic syndrome. In conclusion, baseline characteristics of the COURAGE trial study population indicate a highly symptomatic group of patients with CAD who have a significant duration and frequency of antecedent angina pectoris and a high prevalence of cardiac risk factors. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Objectives: This study sought to develop models for predicting mortality and heart failure (HF) hospitalization for outpatients with HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) in the TOPCAT (Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure with an Aldosterone Antagonist) trial., Background: Although risk assessment models are available for patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction, few have assessed the risks of death and hospitalization in patients with HFpEF., Methods: The following 5 methods: logistic regression with a forward selection of variables; logistic regression with a lasso regularization for variable selection; random forest (RF); gradient descent boosting; and support vector machine, were used to train models for assessing risks of mortality and HF hospitalization through 3 years of follow-up and were validated using 5-fold cross-validation. Model discrimination and calibration were estimated using receiver-operating characteristic curves and Brier scores, respectively. The top prediction variables were assessed by using the best performing models, using the incremental improvement of each variable in 5-fold cross-validation., Results: The RF was the best performing model with a mean C-statistic of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69 to 0.75) for predicting mortality (Brier score: 0.17), and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.71 to 0.81) for HF hospitalization (Brier score: 0.19). Blood urea nitrogen levels, body mass index, and Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) subscale scores were strongly associated with mortality, whereas hemoglobin level, blood urea nitrogen, time since previous HF hospitalization, and KCCQ scores were the most significant predictors of HF hospitalization., Conclusions: These models predict the risks of mortality and HF hospitalization in patients with HFpEF and emphasize the importance of health status data in determining prognosis. (Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure with an Aldosterone Antagonist [TOPCAT]; NCT00094302)., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: To determine whether sex-based differences exist in clinical effectiveness of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) when added to optimal medical therapy (OMT) in patients with stable coronary artery disease., Background: A prior pre-specified unadjusted analysis from COURAGE showed that women randomized to PCI had a lower rate of death or myocardial infarction during a median 4.6-year follow-up with a trend for interaction with respect to sex., Methods: We analyzed outcomes in 338 women (15%) and 1949 men (85%) randomized to PCI plus OMT versus OMT alone after adjustment for relevant baseline characteristics., Results: There was no difference in treatment effect by sex for the primary end point (death or myocardial infarction; HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.77-1.03 for women and HR, 1.02, 95% CI 0.96-1.10 for men; P for interaction = .07). Although the event rate was low, a trend for interaction by sex was nonetheless noted for hospitalization for heart failure, with only women, but not men, assigned to PCI experiencing significantly fewer events as compared to their counterparts receiving OMT alone (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.40-0.84, P < .001 for women and HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.74-1.01, P = .47 for men; P for interaction = .02). Both sexes randomized to PCI experienced significantly reduced need for subsequent revascularization (HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.62-0.83, P < .001 for women; HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89, P < .001 for men; P for interaction = .02) with evidence of a sex-based differential treatment effect., Conclusion: In this adjusted analysis of the COURAGE trial, there were no significant differences in treatment effect on major outcomes between men and women. However, women assigned to PCI demonstrated a greater benefit as compared to men, with a reduction in heart failure hospitalization and need for future revascularization. These exploratory observations require further prospective study., (Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Previous studies have suggested that percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) decreases long-term mortality in patients with silent myocardial ischemia (SMI), but whether PCI specifically decreases mortality when added to intensive medical therapy is unknown. We performed a post hoc analysis of clinical outcomes in patients in the COURAGE trial based on the presence or absence of anginal symptoms at baseline. Asymptomatic patients were classified as having SMI by electrocardiographic ischemia at rest or reversible stress perfusion imaging (exercise-induced or pharmacologic). Study end points included the composite primary end point (death or myocardial infarction [MI]); individual end points of death, MI, and hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome; and need for revascularization. Of 2,280 patients 12% (n = 283) had SMI and 88% were symptomatic (n = 1,997). There were no between-group differences in age, gender, cardiac risk factors, previous MI or revascularization, extent of angiographic disease, or ischemia by electrocardiogram or imaging. Compared to symptomatic patients, those with SMI had fewer subsequent revascularizations (16% vs 27%, p <0.001) regardless of treatment assignment and fewer hospitalizations for acute coronary syndrome (7% vs 12%, p <0.04). No significant differences in outcomes were observed between the 2 treatment groups, although there was a trend toward fewer deaths in the PCI group (n = 7, 5%) compared to the optimal medical therapy (OMT) group (n = 16, 11%, p = 0.12). In conclusion, addition of PCI to OMT did not decrease nonfatal cardiac events in patients with SMI but showed a trend toward fewer deaths. Although underpowered, given similar outcomes in other small studies, these findings suggest the need for an adequately powered trial of revascularization versus OMT in SMI patients., (Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Background: The Clinical Outcomes Utilizing Revascularization and Aggressive Drug Evaluation (COURAGE) trial enrolled patients from 3 distinct healthcare systems (HCSs) in North America. The primary aim of this study was to determine whether there is a treatment difference in cardiovascular outcomes by HCS., Methods and Results: The study population included 968 patients from the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), 386 from the US non-VA, and 931 from Canada with different comorbidities and prognoses. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality or nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) during the median 4.6-year follow-up. Baseline demographics were similar between percutaneous coronary intervention and optimal medical therapy treatment groups within each HCS. After follow-up, the primary end point of total mortality and nonfatal MI was not statistically significant between percutaneous coronary intervention and optimal medical therapy, regardless of HCS: VA, 22.3% versus 21.9% (hazard ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.80-1.38; P=0.95); US non-VA, 15.8% versus 21.8% (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.43-1.12; P=0.24); Canadian HCS, 17.3% versus 13.5% (hazard ratio, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.93-1.83; P=0.17). The interaction between HCSs and treatment was not statistically significant. Long-term mortality was significantly higher in the VA system as a result of significantly greater comorbidity and worse left ventricular function., Conclusions: In the COURAGE trial, addition of percutaneous coronary intervention to optimal medical therapy did not improve 5-year survival or reduce MI or other major adverse cardiovascular events regardless of whether patients were Canadian or American or US veterans or non-veterans. Outcome differences were largely explained by differences in baseline characteristics known to affect long-term prognosis.

We explored the safety and quality-of-life consequences of treating patients with stable coronary disease and high-risk features initially with optimal medical therapy (OMT) alone compared to OMT plus percutaneous coronary intervention. This was a post hoc analysis of Clinical Outcomes Utilizing Revascularization and Aggressive DruG Evaluation (COURAGE) trial patients. We defined high risk as the onset of Canadian Cardiovascular Society class III angina within 2 months or stabilized acute coronary syndrome within 2 weeks of enrollment. The primary end point was death or myocardial infarction after 4.6 years. Of the 2,287 patients enrolled in the COURAGE trial, 264 (12%) were high risk and had a relative risk of 1.56 for death or myocardial infarction (p = 0.0008) compared to those with non-high-risk features. A total of 35 primary events occurred in the OMT group and 32 in the percutaneous coronary intervention plus OMT group (hazard ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.79; p = 0.68). No significant difference was found in the prevalence of angina between the 2 groups at 1 year. During the first year of follow-up, 30% of the OMT patients crossed over to the revascularization group. In conclusion, an initial strategy of OMT alone for high-risk patients in the COURAGE trial did not result in increased death or myocardial infarction at 4.6 years or worse angina at 1 year, but it was associated with a high rate of crossover to revascularization.

Background: Responsiveness, or sensitivity to clinical change, is an important consideration in selection of a health-related quality of life (HRQL) measure for trials or clinical applications. Many approaches can be used to assess responsiveness, which may affect the interpretation of study results. We compared the relative responsiveness of generic and heart failure specific HRQL instruments, as measured both by common psychometric indices and by external clinical criteria., Methods: We analyzed data collected at baseline and 6-weeks in 298 subjects with heart failure on the following HRQL measures: EQ-5D (US, UK, and VAS Scoring), Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) (Clinical and Overall Summary Score), and RAND12 (Physical and Mental Component Summaries). Three external indicators of clinical change were used to classify subjects as improved, deteriorated, or unchanged: 6-minute walk test, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, and physician global rating of change. Four responsiveness statistics (T-test, effect size, Guyatt's responsiveness statistic, and standardized response mean) were used to evaluate the responsiveness of the select measures. The median rank of each HRQL measure across responsiveness indices and clinical criteria was then determined., Results: Average age of subjects was 60 years, 75 percent were male, and had moderate to severe heart failure symptoms. Overall, the KCCQ Summary Scores had the highest relative ranking, irrespective of the responsiveness index or external criterion used. Importantly, we observed that the relative ranking of responsiveness of the generic measures (i.e. EQ-5D, RAND12) was influenced by both the responsive indices and external criterion used., Conclusion: The disease specific KCCQ was the most responsive HRQL measure assessing change over a 6-week period, although generic measures provide information for which the KCCQ is not suitable. The responsiveness of generic HRQL measures may be affected by the index used, as well as the external criterion to classify patients who have clinically change or remained stable.