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• Comprehensive climate-sensitive tree-level models for stand dynamics fit for 27 sp in Spain. • Models are integrated into a forest projection system to perform country/regional level simulations. • Spatial, temporal and environmental effects are addressed. • Allows multi-objective climate sensitive forest planning at stand, landscape & regional level. • A regional full simulation is assessed with alternative climatic & management scenarios. Projecting forest dynamics as a function of alternative management strategies and climatic conditions is key to develop sound forest policy and management planning. In Spain there is a need for a full set of climate-sensitive individual-tree growth and yield models suitable for country-level simulations. In this paper we present environmentally driven models for forest stand dynamics based on distance-independent individual-tree growth and yield. The data for model calibration are based on the second, third and fourth surveys of the Spanish National Forest Inventory, including 50,359 plots and 838,620 trees, representing a broad gradient in forest types and environmental conditions. The results develop a total of 182 models for diameter increment, height increment, total height, survival and ingrowth for 27 species and species groups. The models are integrated into a full forest projection system to perform simulations of forest dynamics and resulting changes in the provision of ecosystem services, including the effects of climate, and forest management. Its potential is illustrated through an array of simulations of forest dynamics in the region of Catalonia under alternative climatic and management scenarios. The resulting models and projections provide a solid basis for the simulation of national or regional climate-sensitive forest scenarios, with the possibility of being applied to other regions, and may be used for future management and planning efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this study a set of models was developed which enables tree-level distance-independent simulation of the development of Pinus halepensis stands in Catalonia. The system consists of a diameter growth model, a static height model, an ingrowth model and a survival model for the coming 10-year period. Special emphasis was placed on the logical behaviour of the growth models and site evaluation. Models for linear and non-linear diameter increment were developed and compared. A past growth index, based on increment borings from sample trees, and location characteristics such as latitude, elevation and slope were used for site description. The diameter growth models were based on 14733 observations, the height models on 14893 observations, the ingrowth models on 1860 observations, and the survival models on 14588 observations. The biases of the diameter growth models were zero due to the estimators used for bias correction. The relative bias for the height model was 1.9%. Due to the fitting method applied, the biases of the ingrowth models were zero. The relative RMSE values were 50.9% for the linear diameter growth model, 50.7% for the non-linear diameter growth model, 23.7% for the height model, and 208% for ingrowth. The developed model set enabled logical long-term simulations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]