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The growing resource constraints around land, water, and energy while tackling climate change in Central Asia threaten the agricultural sustainability that underpins food security and people livelihoods. However, there is a lack of comprehensive long-term evaluations of the intricate water-food-energy‑carbon nexus on a wider scale, hindering sustainable agriculture across this region. This study developed an integrated top-down and bottom-up approach to quantify the water consumption, energy use, and carbon emissions from crop production in Central Asia and established the coupling coordination model to evaluate the nexus (1995–2020). The results show that the total water consumption in Central Asia increased from 161.55 × 109 to 170.93 × 109 m3 at a rate of 1.39 × 109 m3/a in which blue water accounted for 59%. However, the energy use and carbon emissions decreased at a rate of − 1.57 PJ/a and − 0.06 Mt CO 2 eq / a , respectively, in which the indirect energy and indirect carbon emissions varied greatly. Furthermore, the coupling coordination level of water-food-energy‑carbon nexus oscillated between uncoordinated and transitional development stages before 2000 and then entered coordinated development in 2003 after a short transitional development. The findings revealed that this oscillation may have been abnormal owing to issues such as yield loss and soil degradation. These results highlight the complex interplay between water, food, energy, and carbon of crop production across Central Asia and emphasise the need for a more integrated policymaking with increased regional cooperation, improvement in resource utilization efficiency, agricultural structure optimization, and protection of farmers rights towards agricultural sustainability. [Display omitted] • Method of constructing water-food-energy-carbon nexus for crop production is improved. • Rising coupling coordination degree of the nexus in Central Asia maybe abnormal. • Agriculture input, land reform, cropping structure, trade are behind nexus changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Asia is a strategic geopolitical region, which has recently been identified to be on the verge of a water-related crisis. Yet, most studies addressing water-related issues across Central Asia have lacked multi-sectoral and cross-country perspectives. This study used the multi-region input−output model to quantify the water footprint in Central Asia as well as the STIRPAT technique to study its driving forces from 1995 to 2015. The results revealed that the production and consumption-based water footprints of Central Asia sharply increased, as proven by the growth rate of 12.69 × 109 m3/annum and 9.52 × 109 m3/annum, respectively. The water-intensive agriculture sector completely dominated Central Asia's water footprint. In addition, between 1995 and 2015, the volume of imported and exported water footprints in Central Asia increased. In terms of exports, the internal water footprint accounted for 3%–5%, whereas the external accounted for 95%–97%. With respect to imports, the internal water footprint dropped from 50% to 37%. Nevertheless, the gap between export and import volumes was approximately ten-fold, which revealed that international trade exacerbates Central Asia's water crisis. Furthermore, urbanisation was revealed to have significant positive effect on water footprint changes compared to population, gross domestic product (GDP) and water use efficiency in Central Asia. This study provides policy implications for promoting Central Asia's water resource management, as well as highlighting the driving forces of water footprint that need attention, resulting in cooperative water resource management to promote sustainable development. [Display omitted] • This study quantified the water footprint in Central Asia. • The production and consumption-based water footprints increased by 12.69 × 109 and 9.52 × 109 m3/a. • The agricultural sector dominated the water footprint's growth. • Europe is the largest export destination of Central Asia's water footprint at 69%. • Urbanisation was revealed to have significant positive effect on water footprint. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]