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Chad has seen a considerable reduction in cases of Guinea worm disease (or dracunculiasis) in domestic dogs in recent years. Tethering of dogs and application of Abate® larvicide to water sources appear to have contributed to this progress, but with 767 reported dog cases in 2021, accelerating elimination of the disease in Chad may require additional tools. We investigate the potential benefits of a hypothetical diagnostic test that could be capable of detecting prepatent infections in dogs. We adapt an agent-based simulation model for forecasting the impact of interventions on guinea worm disease in dogs to examine the interaction of multiple test factors including test accuracy, when the test can detect infection, dog selection, and dog-owner compliance with tethering recommendations. We find that a diagnostic test could be successful if used in conjunction with existing interventions, and elimination can be achieved within 2 years with 80% or higher test sensitivity, 90% or higher specificity, systematic testing of each dog twice per year, and more than 90% long-term tethering compliance when a dog tests positive or a worm is emerging. Because of the long incubation period of Guinea worm disease (10-14 months) and the fact that no treatment exists, the benefits of the test rely on the testing rollout and response of dog owners. If the test could estimate the timing of worm emergence, long-term tethering could be eliminated and infected dogs could be tethered only when the worms are expected, minimizing the related resources (human and financial) to support the intervention.

Guinea worm (GW) disease (or dracunculiasis) is currently transmitted among dogs in Chad, which presents risks for the human population. We studied how interventions implemented at different levels might reduce the spread of GW disease (geographically and over time) and what levels of interventions might accelerate elimination. We built a multiple-water-source agent-based simulation model to analyze the disease transmission among dogs in Chad, as well as in geographic district clusters, and validated it using local infection data. We considered two interventions: 1) tethering, where infected dogs are kept on a leash during periods of infectivity, and 2) Abate®, under which the water source is treated to reduce infectivity. Our results showed that elimination (0 dog infections) is most likely achieved within 5 years with extremely high levels of tethering (95%) and Abate (90%), when intervention levels are uniform across district clusters. We used an optimization model to determine an improved strategy, with intervention levels which minimize the number of dogs newly infected in the 6th year, under limitations on intervention levels across clusters; the number of dogs infected after 5 years of intervention could be reduced by approximately 220 dogs with an optimized strategy. Finally, we presented strategies that consider fairness based on intervention resource levels and outcomes. Increased tethering and Abate resources above historical levels are needed to achieve the target of GW disease elimination; optimization methods can inform how best to target limited resources and reach elimination faster.

Background: In the absence of a vaccine or pharmacological treatment, prevention and control of Guinea worm disease is dependent on timely identification and containment of cases to interrupt transmission. The Chad Guinea Worm Eradication Program (CGWEP) surveillance system detects and monitors Guinea worm disease in both humans and animals. Although Guinea worm cases in humans has declined, the discovery of canine infections in dogs in Chad has posed a significant challenge to eradication efforts. A foundational information system that supports the surveillance activities with modern data management practices is needed to support continued program efficacy., Methods: We sought to assess the current CGWEP surveillance and information system to identify gaps and redundancies and propose system improvements. We reviewed documentation, consulted with subject matter experts and stakeholders, inventoried datasets to map data elements and information flow, and mapped data management processes. We used the Information Value Cycle (IVC) and Data-Information System-Context (DISC) frameworks to help understand the information generated and identify gaps., Results: Findings from this study identified areas for improvement, including the need for consolidation of forms that capture the same demographic variables, which could be accomplished with an electronic data capture system. Further, the mental models (conceptual frameworks) IVC and DISC highlighted the need for more detailed, standardized workflows specifically related to information management., Conclusions: Based on these findings, we proposed a four-phased roadmap for centralizing data systems and transitioning to an electronic data capture system. These included: development of a data governance plan, transition to electronic data entry and centralized data storage, transition to a relational database, and cloud-based integration. The method and outcome of this assessment could be used by other neglected tropical disease programs looking to transition to modern electronic data capture systems., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Guinea-worm disease (GWD) was thought to be almost eliminated in Chad when it reemerged in 2010. The disease now shows a peculiar pattern of spreading along Chari River and its tributaries, rather than clustering around a particular drinking water source. We create a mathematical model of GWD that includes the population dynamics of the parasite as well as the dynamics of its hosts (copepods, fish, humans, and domestic dogs). We calibrate our model based on data from the literature and validate it on the recent GWD annual incidence data from Chad. The effective reproduction number predicted by our model agrees well with the empirical value of roughly 1.25 derived directly from the data. Our model thus supports the hypothesis that the parasite now uses fish as intermediate transport hosts. We predict that GWD transmission can be most easily interrupted by avoiding eating uncooked fish and by burying the fish entrails to prevent transmission through dogs. Increasing the mortality of copepods and even partially containing infected dogs to limit their access to water sources is another important factor for GWD eradication., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Guinea worm is a debilitating parasitic infection targeted for eradication. Annual human cases have dropped from approximately 3,500,000 in 1986 to 54 in 2019. Recent identification of canine cases in Chad threatens progress, and therefore detection, prevention, and containment of canine cases is a priority. We investigated associations between disease knowledge, community engagement, and canine cases in Chad to identify opportunities to improve active surveillance., Methods: We surveyed 627 respondents (villagers, local leaders, community volunteers, and supervisors) across 45 villages under active surveillance. Descriptive statistics were analyzed by respondent category. Logistic regression models were fitted to assess the effects of volunteer visit frequency on villager knowledge., Results: Knowledge increased with respondents' associations with the Guinea worm program. Household visit frequency by community volunteers was uneven: 53.0% of villagers reported visits at least twice weekly and 21.4% of villagers reported never being visited. Villagers visited by a volunteer at least twice weekly had better knowledge of Guinea worm symptoms (OR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.04-2.79) and could name more prevention strategies (OR: 2.04; 95% CI: 1.32-3.15) than villagers visited less frequently. The primary motivation to report was to facilitate care-seeking for people with Guinea worm. Knowledge of animal "containment" to prevent contamination of water, knowledge of rewards for reporting animal cases, and ability to name any reasons to report Guinea worm were each positively correlated with village canine case counts., Conclusions: Community volunteers play crucial roles in educating their neighbors about Guinea worm and facilitating surveillance. Additional training and more attentive management of volunteers and supervisors could increase visit frequency and further amplify their impact. Emphasizing links between animal and human cases, the importance of animal containment, and animal rewards might improve surveillance and canine case detection. The surveillance system should be evaluated routinely to expand generalizability of data and monitor changes over time., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The Guinea Worm Eradication Program has been extraordinarily successful-in 2019, there were 53 human cases reported, down from the estimated 3.5 million in 1986. Yet the occurrence of Guinea worm in dogs is a challenge to eradication efforts, and underlying questions about transmission dynamics remain. We used routine surveillance data to run negative binomial regressions predicting worm burden among infected dogs in Chad. Of 3,371 infected dogs reported during 2015-2018, 38.5% had multiple worms. A multivariable model showed that the number of dogs in the household was negatively associated with worm burden (adjusted incidence rate ratio [AIRR] = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.93-0.97, P < 0.0001) after adjusting for dog age (AIRR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.96-1.01, P > 0.1). This could relate to the amount of infective inocula (e.g., contaminated food or water) shared by multiple dogs in a household. Other significant univariable associations with worm burden included dog history of Guinea worm infection (IRR = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.18-1.45) and dog owners who were hunters (IRR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.62-0.99, P < 0.05) or farmers (IRR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.77-0.90, P < 0.0001). Further analysis showed that the number of dogs in the household was significantly and positively correlated with nearly all other independent variables (e.g., owner occupation: farmer, fisherman, or hunter; dog age, sex, and history of Guinea worm). The associations we identified between worm burden and dogs per household, and dogs per household and owner characteristics should be further investigated with more targeted studies.

Increased levels of guinea worm (GW) disease transmission among dogs in villages along the Chari River in Chad threaten the gains made by the GW Eradication Program. Infected dogs with preemergent worm blisters are difficult to proactively identify. If these dogs are not contained, blisters can burst upon submersion in water, leading to the contamination of the water supply with L1 larvae. Guinea worm antigens previously identified using sera from human dracunculiasis patients were coupled to polystyrene beads for multiplex bead assay analysis of 41 non-endemic (presumed negative) dog sera and 39 sera from GW-positive dogs from Chad. Because commercially available anti-dog IgG secondary antibodies did not perform well in the multiplex assay, dog IgGs were partially purified, and a new anti-dog IgG monoclonal antibody was developed. Using the new 4E3D9 monoclonal secondary antibody, the thioredoxin-like protein 1-glutathione- S -transferase (GST), heat shock protein (HSP1)-GST, and HSP2-GST antigen multiplex assays had sensitivities of 69-74% and specificities of 73-83%. The domain of unknown function protein 148 (DUF148)-GST antigen multiplex assay had a sensitivity of 89.7% and a specificity of 85.4%. When testing samples collected within 1 year of GW emergence ( n = 20), the DUF148-GST assay had a sensitivity of 90.0% and a specificity of 97.6% with a receiver-operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.94. Using sera from two experimentally infected dogs, antibodies to GW antigens were detected within 6 months of exposure. Our results suggest that, when used to analyze paired, longitudinal samples collected 1-2 months apart, the DUF148/GST multiplex assay could identify infected dogs 4-8 months before GW emergence.

The campaign to eradicate dracunculiasis (Guinea worm [GW] disease) and its causative pathogen Dracunculus medinensis (GW) in Chad is challenged by infections in domestic dogs, which far outnumber the dwindling number of human infections. We present an agent-based simulation that models transmission of GW between a shared water source and a large population of dogs. The simulation incorporates various potential factors driving the infections including external factors and two currently used interventions, namely, tethering and larvicide water treatments. By defining and estimating infectivity parameters and seasonality factors, we test the simulation model on scenarios where seasonal patterns of dog infections could be driven by the parasite's life cycle alone or with environmental factors (e.g., temperature and rainfall) that could also affect human or dog behaviors (e.g., fishing versus farming seasons). We show that the best-fitting model includes external factors in addition to the pathogen's life cycle. From the simulation, we estimate that the basic reproductive number, R 0 , is approximately 2.0; our results also show that an infected dog can transmit the infection to 3.6 other dogs, on average, during the month of peak infectivity (April). The simulation results shed light on the transmission dynamics of GWs to dogs and lay the groundwork for reducing the number of infections and eventually interrupting transmission of GW.

The prevalence and diversity of parasitic nematodes in wildlife have been well studied for certain species, yet for others considerable gaps in knowledge exist. The parasitic nematode Dracunculus insignis infects North American wildlife, and past research on this species has led to an increased understanding of the potential host diversity and transmission of the closely related human Guinea worm, Dracunculus medinensis (which is currently the focus of a global eradication program). Many definitive hosts have been documented for D. insignis; however, the life cycle has been studied only in laboratories, and only a single phylogenetic study has been conducted on D. insignis (from Canada). The goals of the present study were to investigate the prevalence of infections with Dracunculus species among wildlife at a single site (Di-Lane plantation) in the southeastern United States, evaluate the genetic diversity of parasites at this site, and investigate potential paratenic hosts that may be involved in transmission. Over 3 yr, we sampled 228 meso-mammals, reporting an overall prevalence of infection with Dracunculus insignis of 20% (46/228). Amphibians and fish were sampled in the same geographic area as infected meso-mammals. Dracunculus insignis third-stage larvae were recovered from 2 different species of amphibians, but all fish sampled were negative. Phylogenetic analysis of the partial cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) gene showed very little diversity of Dracunculus at Di-Lane; however, we did recover a single nematode from a Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) that falls outside of the D. insignis clade, more closely aligns with Dracunculus lutrae, and may represent an undescribed species. This work documents the occurrence of D. insignis in frogs, a potential transmission pathway for D. insignis at a single geographic site in nature. When applied to the global Guinea Worm Eradication Program, and Chad, Africa, in particular, this work increases our knowledge of the potential role of aquatic animals in the transmission of Dracunculus species and informs on potential intervention strategies that may be applied to the eradication of Guinea worm in Africa., (© American Society of Parasitologists 2020.)

Few human infectious diseases have been driven as close to eradication as dracunculiasis, caused by the Guinea worm parasite (Dracunculus medinensis). The number of human cases of Guinea worm decreased from an estimated 3.5 million in 1986 to mere hundreds by the 2010s. In Chad, domestic dogs were diagnosed with Guinea worm for the first time in 2012, and the numbers of infected dogs have increased annually. The presence of the parasite in a non-human host now challenges efforts to eradicate D. medinensis, making it critical to understand the factors that correlate with infection in dogs. In this study, we evaluated anthropogenic and environmental factors most predictive of detection of D. medinensis infection in domestic dog populations in Chad. Using boosted regression tree models to identify covariates of importance for predicting D. medinensis infection at the village and spatial hotspot levels, while controlling for surveillance intensity, we found that the presence of infection in a village was predicted by a combination of demographic (e.g. fishing village identity, dog population size), geographic (e.g. local variation in elevation), and climatic (e.g. precipitation and temperature) factors, which differed between northern and southern villages. In contrast, the presence of a village in a spatial infection hotspot, was primarily predicted by geography and climate. Our findings suggest that factors intrinsic to individual villages are highly predictive of the detection of Guinea worm parasite presence, whereas village membership in a spatial infection hotspot is largely determined by location and climate. This study provides new insight into the landscape-scale epidemiology of a debilitating parasite and can be used to more effectively target ongoing research and possibly eradication and control efforts., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction: The global Guinea Worm Eradication Program has reduced numbers of human infections of Guinea worm disease (dracunculiasis) to 49 cases in four countries. However, infections of domestic animals (dogs and cats) have recently been recognized and are increasing. Typically, Guinea worm (Dracunculus medinensis) transmission occurs via the ingestion of copepods from water. Despite several interventions, including tethering of dogs while worms emerge, the number of infected dogs continue to increase. One hypothesis is that dogs could be infected through the ingestion of copepods in provisioned water., Objectives: The purpose of this study was to determine whether copepods can survive in water containers under typical Chadian temperatures., Methods: Four container types (plastic, glass, gourd, and metal) were seeded with copepods and exposed to simulated Chadian temperatures., Results: All copepods in the metal containers died within 4 h. Conversely, after 8 h live copepods were still present in plastic, glass, and gourd containers., Conclusions: If provisioned water is provided to potential hosts of D. medinensis, metal containers create the most inhospitable environment for copepods. Plastic containers have little effect on copepod mortality. The use of metal containers for water provisions could be a useful tool assisting with the interruption of D. medinensis transmission among dogs., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

After a ten-year absence of reported Guinea worm disease in Chad, human cases were rediscovered in 2010, and canine cases were first recorded in 2012. In response, active surveillance for Guinea worm in both humans and animals was re-initiated in 2012. As of 2018, the Chad Guinea Worm Eradication Program (CGWEP) maintains an extensive surveillance system that operates in 1,895 villages, and collects information about worms, hosts (animals and humans), and animal owners. This report describes in detail the CGWEP surveillance system and explores epidemiological trends in canine Guinea worm cases during 2015-2018. Our results showed an increased in the number of canine cases detected by the system during the period of interest. The proportion of worms that were contained (i.e., water contamination was prevented) improved significantly over time, from 72.8% in 2015 to 85.7% in 2018 (Mantel-Haenszel chi-square = 253.3, P < 0.0001). Additionally, approximately 5% of owners of infected dogs reported that the dog had a Guinea worm-like infection earlier that year; 12.6% had a similar worm in a previous year. The proportion of dogs with a history of infection in a previous year increased over time (Mantel-Haenszel chi-square = 18.8, P < 0.0001). Canine cases were clustered in space and time: most infected dogs (80%) were from the Chari Baguirmi (38.1%) and Moyen Chari Regions (41.9%), and for each year the peak month of identified canine cases was June, with 78.5% occurring during March through August. Findings from this report evoke additional questions about why some dogs are repeatedly infected. Our results may help to target interventions and surveillance efforts in terms of space, time, and dogs susceptible to recurrent infection, with the ultimate goal of Guinea worm eradication., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Global eradication of human Guinea worm disease (dracunculiasis) has been set back by the emergence of infections in animals, particularly domestic dogs Canis familiaris. The ecology and epidemiology of this reservoir is unknown. We tracked dogs using GPS, inferred diets using stable isotope analysis and analysed correlates of infection in Chad, where numbers of Guinea worm infections are greatest. Dogs had small ranges that varied markedly among villages. Diets consisted largely of human staples and human faeces. A minority of ponds, mostly <200 m from dog-owning households, accounted for most dog exposure to potentially unsafe water. The risk of a dog having had Guinea worm was reduced in dogs living in households providing water for animals but increased with increasing fish consumption by dogs. Provision of safe water might reduce dog exposure to unsafe water, while prioritisation of proactive temephos (Abate) application to the small number of ponds to which dogs have most access is recommended. Fish might have an additional role as transport hosts for Guinea worm, by concentrating copepods infected with worm larvae., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Dracunculiasis is the first parasitic disease set for eradication. However, recent events related to the Dracunculus medinensis epidemiology in certain African countries are apparently posing new challenges to its eradication. Two novel facts have emerged: the existence of animal reservoirs (mainly dogs but also cats and baboons), and possibly a new food-borne route of transmission by the ingestion of paratenic (frogs) or transport (fish) hosts. Therefore, instead of being exclusively a water-borne anthroponosis, dracunculiasis would also be a food-borne zoonosis. The existence of a large number of infected dogs, mainly in Chad, and the low number of infected humans, have given rise to this potential food-borne transmission. This novel route would concern not only reservoirs, but also humans. However, only animals seem to be affected. Dracunculus medinensis is on the verge of eradication due to the control measures which, classically, have been exclusively aimed at the water-borne route. Therefore, food-borne transmission is probably of secondary importance, at least in humans. In Chad, reservoirs would become infected through the water-borne route, mainly in the dry season when rivers recede, and smaller accessible ponds, with a lower water level containing the infected copepods, appear, whilst humans drink filtered water and, thus, avoid infection. The total absence of control measures aimed at dogs (or at other potential reservoirs) up until the last years, added to the stimulating reward in cash given to those who find parasitized dogs, have presumably given rise to the current dracunculiasis scenario in Chad.

Following almost 10 years of no reported cases, Guinea worm disease (GWD or dracunculiasis) reemerged in Chad in 2010 with peculiar epidemiological patterns and unprecedented prevalence of infection among non-human hosts, particularly domestic dogs. Since 2014, animal infections with Guinea worms have also been observed in the other three countries with endemic transmission (Ethiopia, Mali, and South Sudan), causing concern and generating interest in the parasites' true taxonomic identity and population genetics. We present the first extensive population genetic data for Guinea worm, investigating mitochondrial and microsatellite variation in adult female worms from both human and non-human hosts in the four endemic countries to elucidate the origins of Chad's current outbreak and possible host-specific differences between parasites. Genetic diversity of Chadian Guinea worms was considerably higher than that of the other three countries, even after controlling for sample size through rarefaction, and demographic analyses are consistent with a large, stable parasite population. Genealogical analyses eliminate the other three countries as possible sources of parasite reintroduction into Chad, and sequence divergence and distribution of genetic variation provide no evidence that parasites in human and non-human hosts are separate species or maintain isolated transmission cycles. Both among and within countries, geographic origin appears to have more influence on parasite population structure than host species. Guinea worm infection in non-human hosts has been occasionally reported throughout the history of the disease, particularly when elimination programs appear to be reaching their end goals. However, no previous reports have evaluated molecular support of the parasite species identity. Our data confirm that Guinea worms collected from non-human hosts in the remaining endemic countries of Africa are Dracunculus medinensis and that the same population of worms infects both humans and dogs in Chad. Our genetic data and the epidemiological evidence suggest that transmission in the Chadian context is currently being maintained by canine hosts., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Dracunculiasis was rediscovered in Chad in 2010 after an apparent absence of 10 years. In April 2012 active village-based surveillance was initiated to determine where, when, and how transmission of the disease was occurring, and to implement interventions to interrupt it. The current epidemiologic pattern of the disease in Chad is unlike that seen previously in Chad or other endemic countries, i.e., no clustering of cases by village or association with a common water source, the average number of worms per person was small, and a large number of dogs were found to be infected. Molecular sequencing suggests these infections were all caused by Dracunculus medinensis. It appears that the infection in dogs is serving as the major driving force sustaining transmission in Chad, that an aberrant life cycle involving a paratenic host common to people and dogs is occurring, and that the cases in humans are sporadic and incidental.