Search

Background: The article proposes a network public opinion risk assessment model for earthquake disasters, which can provide an effective support for emergency departments of China. Method: It uses the accelerated genetic algorithm (AGA) to improve BP neural network. The main contents: This article selects 10 indexes by using the methods of the principal component analysis (PCA) and cumulative contribution (CC) to assess the risk of the earthquake network public opinion. The article designs a BP algorithm to measure the risk degree of the earthquake network public opinion and uses AGA to improve the BP model for parameter optimization. Results: The experiment results of the improved BP model shows that its global error is 7.12×10, and the error is reduced to 22.35%, which showed the improving BP model has advantages in convergence speed and evaluation accuracy. Conclusion: The risk assessment method of network public opinion can be used in the practice of earthquake disaster decision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: AIDS is a worrying public health issue in China and lacks timely and effective surveillance. With the diffusion and adoption of the Internet, the ‘big data’ aggregated from Internet search engines, which contain users’ information on the concern or reality of their health status, provide a new opportunity for AIDS surveillance. This paper uses search engine data to monitor and forecast AIDS in China. Methods: A machine learning method, artificial neural networks (ANNs), is used to forecast AIDS incidences and deaths. Search trend data related to AIDS from the largest Chinese search engine, Baidu.com, are collected and selected as the input variables of ANNs, and officially reported actual AIDS incidences and deaths are used as the output variable. Three criteria, the mean absolute percentage error, the root mean squared percentage error, and the index of agreement, are used to test the forecasting performance of the ANN method. Results: Based on the monthly time series data from January 2011 to June 2017, this article finds that, under the three criteria, the ANN method can lead to satisfactory forecasting of AIDS incidences and deaths, regardless of the change in the number of search queries. Conclusions: Despite the inability to self-detect HIV/AIDS through online searching, Internet-based data should be adopted as a timely, cost-effective complement to a traditional AIDS surveillance system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]