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A non-periodic "step-like" variation in displacement is exhibited owing to the repeated instability of expansive soil landslides. The dynamic prediction of deformation for expansive soil landslides has become a challenge in actual engineering for disaster prevention and mitigation. Therefore, a support vector regression prediction (AMPSO-SVR) model based on adaptive mutation particle swarm optimization is proposed, which is suitable for small samples of data. The shallow displacement is decomposed into a trend component and fluctuating component by complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), and the trend displacement is predicted by cubic polynomial fitting. In this paper, the multiple disaster-inducing factors of expansive landslides and the time hysteresis effect between displacement and its influencing factors are fully considered, and the crucial influencing factors which eliminate the time lag effect and state factors are input into the model to predict the fluctuation displacement. Monitoring data in the Ningming area of China are employed for the model validation. The predicted results are compared with those of the traditional model. The model performance is evaluated through indicators such as the goodness of fit R2 and root mean square error RMSE. The results show that the prediction RMSE of the new model for three monitoring stations can reach 2.6 mm, 6.6 mm, and 2.5 mm, respectively. Compared with the common Grid search support vector regression (GS-SVR), the Particle Swarm Optimization Support Vector Regression (PSO-SVR) and Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) models have average improvements of 58.4%, 38.1%, and 25.2% respectively. The goodness of fit R2 is superior to 0.99 in the new method. The proposed model can effectively be deployed for the displacement prediction of non-periodic stepped expansive soil landslides driven by multiple influencing factors, providing a reference idea for the deformation prediction of expansive soil landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The service areas of the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) are China, the Asia–Pacific, and the world via three stages of development. The BDS constellation is designed to maintain a geostationary Earth orbit (GEO), inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO), and medium Earth orbit (MEO). These orbital maneuvers yield certain difficulties for data processing, especially for the BeiDou satellites, such as a decrease in the real-time service performance, which causes a missing precise orbit product from the maneuvered satellites. The frequencies of the orbital maneuvers for the GEO and IGSO satellites are higher than those for the MEO satellites. The maneuvering time and strategy cannot be obtained by common users due to secrecy, which can yield a decline in the service performance of the BDS. Thus, in this study, we analyzed the variation in the orbital semimajor axis for the satellites. The long-term variation in the orbital semimajor axis changes linearly. The short-term variation in the orbital semimajor axis also has periodicity, which can be described by the sum of sine functions. According to the long-term variation in the orbital semimajor axis for the satellites, we propose a detection method for in-plane orbital maneuvering of the GEO, IGSO, and MEO satellites. We then propose a detection method for out-of-plane maneuvering of the GEO satellites. BDS and Global Positioning System (GPS) data from the broadcast ephemeris were analyzed to verify the proposed methods. The experimental results from 2013 to 2019 show that the frequency of orbital maneuvering is approximately once a month for the GEO satellites, once every six months for the IGSO satellites, and once every 1.4 years for the MEO satellites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The weighted mean temperature (Tm) is a crucial parameter for determining the tropospheric delay in transforming precipitable water vapor. We used the reanalysis data provided by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to analyze the distribution characteristics of Tm in the vertical direction in China. To address the problem that the precision of the traditional linear function model is limited in fitting the Tm profile, a scheme using the linear and Fourier functions to fit the Tm profile was constructed. Based on the least squares principle (LSQ) to fit the change in its coefficients over time, a Tm model for China with nonlinear elevation correction (CTm-h) was constructed. The experimental results show that, using ECMWF and radiosonde data to evaluate the precision of the CTm-h model, the RMS is 3.43 K and 4.64 K, respectively. Compared to GPT2w, the precision of the CTm-h model in China is increased by about 26.8%. The CTm-h model provides a significant improvement in the correction effect of Tm in the vertical direction, and the Tm profile calculated by the model is closer to the reference value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mu Us dune field is one of China's four major dune fields, which are ecologically vulnerable areas of northwest semiarid land across Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia, also very sensitive to the global temperature rise and environmental changes. This paper uses data on the temperature, precipitation, and precipitable water vapor (PWV) in the Mu Us dune field and its surrounding areas to analyze and discuss the time series and spatial distribution characteristics of these three factors in this area. The results of the study show that, in recent years, the trend of temperature increase in the Mu Us dune field has been higher than the average level in China, but this trend has gradually subsided since 2000. The spatial distribution of temperature presents an obvious characteristic of gradual increase from north to south and is affected by latitude, altitude, and topography. The annual cumulative precipitation of the Mu Us dune field is lower than the average level in China. However, in recent years, the rate of the increase in precipitation in this area has been significantly higher than that of the average rate of increase in China. The eastern part of the dune field has the most precipitation, which gradually decreases to the west. The spatial distribution of precipitation is greatly affected by monsoon factors in the region and the distribution of rivers. In the research field, PWV has been rising in recent years, which is greatly related to the increase of vegetation coverage in this region. This demonstrates that the Mu Us dune field has experienced a "warmer and wetter" trend in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Obtaining reliable GNSS uncalibrated phase delay (UPD) or integer clock products is the key to achieving ambiguity-fixed solutions for real-time (RT) precise point positioning (PPP) users. However, due to the influence of RT orbit errors, the quality of UPD/integer clock products estimated with a globally distributed GNSS network is difficult to ensure, thereby affecting the ambiguity resolution (AR) performance of RT-PPP. In this contribution, by fully utilising the consistency of orbital errors in regional GNSS network coverage areas, a method is proposed for estimating regional integer clock products to compensate for RT orbit errors. Based on Centre National d'Études Spatiales (CNES) RT precise products, the regional GPS/BDS integer clock was estimated with a CORS network in the west of China. Results showed that the difference between the estimated regional and CNES global integer clock/bias products was generally less than 5 cm for GPS, whereas clock differences of greater than 10 cm were observed for BDS due to the large RT orbit error. Compared with PPP using global integer clock/bias products, the AR performance of PPP using the regional integer clock was obviously improved for four rover stations. For single GPS, the horizontal and vertical accuracies of ambiguity-fixed PPP solutions were improved by 56.2% and 45.3% on average, respectively, whereas improvements of 67.5% and 50.5% in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively, were observed for the combined GPS/BDS situation. Based on a regional integer clock, the RMS error of a kinematic ambiguity-fixed PPP solution in the horizontal direction could reach 0.5 cm. In terms of initialisation time, the average time to first fix (TTFF) in combined GPS/BDS PPP was shortened from 18.2 min to 12.7 min. In view of the high AR performance realised with the use of regional integer clocks, this method can be applied to scenarios that require high positioning accuracy, such as deformation monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]